When Will Miggy Hit Number 500?

Miguel Cabrera is inching closer and closer in being part of the 500 club with an opportunity this upcoming week

It has been six seasons since David Ortiz became a recent member of the 500 home run club.

He amassed the feat by clubbing numbers 499 and 500 in the same game.

Now the city of Detroit, as well as the entire baseball world, have their eyes on Miguel Cabrera.

Last Wednesday in Baltimore, Cabrera struck number 499.

Comerica Park has been flooded with fans reminiscent of the early 10’s, in hopes to witness firsthand Miggy etching his name into the history books.

How long can we be expected to wait?

If history has been any indicator, we’ve generally seen number 500 come within roughly one calendar week. 

Hank Aaron, Ken Griffey Jr, and Eddie Murray took about a week.

Barry Bonds, Reggie Jackson, and Mel Ott in a day or less.

Alex Rodriguez slowed down the entire process and took nine days. However not nearly as long as Jimmie Foxx or Harmon Killebrew, who each went roughly two weeks before the big moment.

Sammy Sosa and Gary Sheffield hit 499 at the very end of September and didn’t hit 500 until the following season.

So where does Miggy fall on this list?

For 2021, he’s averaging just over 28 at-bats per home run.

In his last 25 games he’s shaved that number down to 17.  We’ve already seen the mid-season adjustment that has led to a more open stance at the plate.  An adjustment that likely extended his career a few seasons.

Cabrera could treat his hometown crowd this week, he will have three more opportunities against the Angels this week before a five-game road trip.  The Tigers will be returning to Detroit for a seven-game homestand beginning August 27th.  

His quest won’t come any easier this week, as the Tigers are facing two-way phenom Shohei Othani. 

However, if 499 carries into the road trip, a series to circle on the calendar will be the two-game set in St. Louis on the 24th and 25th. 

Cabrera will have the rare opportunity to hit both numbers 400 and 500 against the same opponent on their turf, a feat he could share with, coincidentally, former Cardinals slugger Albert Pujols.

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