The best and worst cases of the Panthers’ most recent contract signings.

The Panthers played the lottery and won big with several players. Now the time has come to pay them. Will they regret any of it?

The Panthers resurrected an unprecedented amount of careers this past season, and rewarded most of those players with contract extensions. In many cases, these are the first large contracts handed to these players. Will these players live up to their new cap hits? Let’s dive into the best and worst case scenarios for each of the players the Panthers rewarded with new contracts this offseason.

Gustav Forsling

Forsling impressed during the second half of last season with the Panthers. Offensively Forsling drove play with his speed and vision and defensively he used great anticipation and stick checking to make up for his lack of size. He went above and beyond being an injury replacement for Aaron Ekblad on that top pairing. Nothing during his season with the Panthers would suggest any precipitous drop off in play. However, Forsling did not show he could be an NHL caliber defenseman before this season. During his first four seasons in the NHL with Chicago and Carolina, he spent more than half of his time in the AHL. He had shown flashes of offensive excellence during those seasons but could not be counted on defensively. Was this sudden improvement in play a result of a change of scenery and being put in the right position, or just plain luck? Nobody can know for sure, but for only eight million dollars over three years the gamble is certainly worth it for the Panthers.

Best case: strong top 4 defensemen

Worst case: 7th defensemen, gone in 2 years

Anthony Duclair

Duclair has always had strong underlying numbers, but has had issues with upper management at several of his previous stops. In hindsight, it seems those issues were largely the fault of the coaches and management, and less so on Duclair. Regardless, he seems to have found a home in South Florida. Even with his impressive play last season, his shooting percentage was only 9.6%, down from 12.4% career average. With shooting percentage being a good indicator of player luck, it could mean Duclair is in for some positive regression this upcoming season. Even if that regression never comes and Duclair maintains the level of play he had last season, this contract is an absolute win for the Panthers.

Best case: Reliable top 6 forward

Worst case: high ceiling top 9 forward

Sam Bennett

Bennett burst onto the scene with superstar level production during his short 10 game stint with the Panthers last season, registering 6 goals and 9 assists during those games. Those numbers are obviously unsustainable, especially his 15.4 shooting percentage. The former fourth overall pick in the 2014 draft left Calgary as somewhat of a disappointment. He never cracked 40 points in a season (his career high is 36 during his rookie season) and played much of his time as a bottom 6 forward. To his credit, Bennett has talked openly about how a change of scenery was necessary for him. His instant chemistry with winger Johnathan Huberdeau helped Bennett embark on the greatest stretch of his career. With that in mind, it is possible this handful of games with the Panthers could be just the start of what is to come for the 25 year old. The Panthers took a pretty big risk with this contract. His AAV of 4.425 million means he will be expected to produce like a top 6 forward regularly. It could certainly happen, but the sample size of him being an average player is much, much larger than his hot streak with the Panthers.

Best case: second line center

Worst case: bottom 6 forward, bought out in two years

Carter Verhaeghe

Ah, Carter Vergaeghe. Talented, Beautiful, Carter Verhaeghe. The steal of last year’s free agency period exceeded all expectations last season, and is only getting better. Verhaeghe may have the most complete game on the team of any forward not named Aleksander Barkov of Johnathan Huberdeau. The undrafted phenom only had one season of NHL experience under his belt, where he impressed in a limited role with the Tampa Bay Lightning. In a larger role with the Panthers last season, he impressed again. Of course, the shooting percentage may come back to earth a bit, but I would bet against it having a major impact on his production. Strong Defense, wicked shot, and blistering speed, the man can do it all. You take his 4.167 AAV any day and pray you can meet his new number in four years time.

Best Case: Top line winger

Worst Case: really good second line winger

Brandon Montour

I’ll be honest, this one gives me pause. Montour did not play badly for the Panthers by any means. From my point of view, Montour just never stood out. He played like just another cog in the machine for a defense which was simply not good enough against Tampa. 3.5 million dollars per year for 3 years is a big commitment for someone who did not show flashes of anything extraordinary. During his last 3 years in Buffalo, Montour gained a reputation as one of the worst defenders in the league. (Granted, Buffalo is a place where careers go to die.) Montour had been a defenseman worth that amount during his tenure in Anaheim, but last played for the Ducks three years ago. Florida wanted to re-sign him even before the season ended, so maybe they see something I don’t. If I had to bet on a contract from the bunch to age poorly, however, this would be the one.

Best case: mid tier top 4 defenseman

Worst case: AHL defensemen being paid like a top 4 defenseman

Sam Reinhart

Speaking of Buffalo reclamation projects, the Panthers may have snagged the best of the bunch — Jack Eichel notwithstanding. What makes Reinhart such a tantalizing player is he actually managed to be good in Buffalo. He netted 20+ goals in each of the last four seasons. The second overall pick in the 2014 draft has as much raw talent as anyone on this roster. He has not quite lived up to his lofty draft expectations — likely a product of being stuck on the Sabres — but the possibility still remains that a new team will allow for that theoretical pre draft Reinhart to become reality.

This season will show if his ordeal with Buffalo stunted his all around hockey development or just masked it in a thick layer of garbage. 6.5 million dollars per year is a steep price, and that comes with expectations, but expect Reinhart to be very productive this upcoming season.

Best case: Elite top line winger

Worst Case: Disappointing but still productive second line winger

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