Date: September 17, 2022
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Network: SEC Network
Records: Florida Gators (1-1) vs USF Bulls (1-1)
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Florida
Spread: Florida +24
Over/Under: 60

Florida vs USF Preview

After a hard-fought victory over Utah, Florida comes off a loss to Kentucky and looks to bounce back at home before another top-25 matchup next week. The Gators are huge favorites in this one, but USF has experience at quarterback in Baylor transfer Gerry Bohanon. It should be a good way to get the Gators moving in the right direction as they move on to a tough opponent.

USF Bulls

Offensive Stats

Points Per Game (Rank): 21.0 (82)
Total Yards Per Game: 293.0 (105)
Passing YPG: 172.0 (99)
Rushing YPG: 121 (83)
Points Per Play: 0.368 (61)
Yards Per Play: 5.1 (74)
3rd Down Conversion %: 25.00 (112)
4th Down Conversion %: 50.00 (50)
Red Zone Scoring %: 66.67 (95)

Rush Play %: 45.61 (88)
Yards Per Carry: 4.7 (48)
Runs Per Game: 26.0 (119)

Pass Play %: 54.39 (44)
Completion %: 56.67 (94)
Yards Per Pass: 5.7 (98)
Passes Per Game: 30.0 (80)
Interception %: 3.33 (92)
QB Sack %: 3.23 (38)

Defensive Stats

Points Per Game (Rank): 50.0 (126)
Total Yards Per Game: 576.0 (129)
Passing YPG: 261.0 (79)
Rushing YPG: 315.0 (129)
Points Per Play: 0.725 (124)
Yards Per Play: 8.3 (127)
3rd Down Conversion %: 53.85 (115)
4th Down Conversion %: 100.00 (91)
Red Zone Scoring %: 80.00 (44)

Rush Play %: 52.17 (73)
Yards Per Carry: 8.8 (131)
Runs Per Game: 36.0 (69)

Pass Play %: 47.83 (59)
Completion %: 78.13 (126)
Yards Per Pass: 8.2 (94)
Passes Per Game: 32.0 (62)
Interception %: 3.13 (47)
QB Sack %: 3.03 (104)

Advanced Stats

FEI is a neutral field scoring differential per-possession metric. SP+ is a tempo and opponent adjusted efficiency metric. F+ combines the both of them, and OF+ and DF+ and the offensive and defensive components of F+. All five metrics are from Football Outsiders. PFF’s Point Spread Rating is their power rankings.

F+: -0.85 (106)
FEI: -0.54 (114)
SP+: -8.3 (95)
OF+: -0.51 (90)
DF+: -1.14 (114)
PFF: -9.2 (113)

sOUTH fLORIDA bULLS tEAM bREAKDOWN

South Florida has struggled so far throughout the season, and will need to greatly improve to stand a chance against Florida. The Bulls have struggled on third downs, and their defense has been atrocious. USF has ran the ball well, and that will be what they have to rely on. The matchup will be very difficult, and they will have to play mistake free football.

USf bulls Keys To Victory

1. Convert Third Downs
2. Force Turnovers
3. Run The Ball
4. Create Explosive Plays

Florida Gators

Offensive Stats

Points Per Game (Rank): 22.5 (79)
Total Yards Per Game: 365.5 (74)
Passing YPG: 155.5 (108)
Rushing YPG: 210.0 (10)
Points Per Play: 0.352 (69)
Yards Per Play: 5.7 (50)
3rd Down Conversion %: 39.29 (52)
4th Down Conversion %: 60.00 (44)
Red Zone Scoring %: 100.00 (1)

Rush Play %: 53.13 (51)
Yards Per Carry: 6.2 (9)
Runs Per Game: 34.0 (26)

Pass Play %: 46.88 (81)
Completion %: 52.54 (104)
Yards Per Pass: 5.3 (107)
Passes Per Game: 29.5 (83)
Interception %: 3.39 (93)
QB Sack %: 1.67 (21)

Defensive Stats

Points Per Game (Rank): 26.0 (63)
Total Yards Per Game: 378.5 (63)
Passing YPG: 209.0 (50)
Rushing YPG: 169.5 (85)
Points Per Play: 0.385 (67)
Yards Per Play: 5.6 (79)
3rd Down Conversion %: 46.15 (97)
4th Down Conversion %: N/A
Red Zone Scoring %: 70.00 (27)

Rush Play %: 56.30 (96)
Yards Per Carry: 4.5 (86)
Runs Per Game: 38.0 (78)

Pass Play %: 43.70 (36)
Completion %: 62.50 (77)
Yards Per Pass: 7.5 (79)
Passes Per Game: 28.0 (30)
Interception %: 3.57 (37)
QB Sack %: 5.08 (69)

Advanced Stats

F+: 0.86 (29)
FEI: 0.43 (26)
SP+: 12.9 (31)
OF+: 0.71 (33)
DF+: 0.86 (27)
PFF: 5.1 (44)

Florida Gators Team Breakdown

The Florida Gators come in after a tough loss to Kentucky needing to prove that they are able to get back to their identity. They are a run first team that needs to pound the rock offensively. With Anthony Richardson at the helm, you can look to create explosive plays in the passing game, but relying on that can be risky given his inexperience and the lack of playmakers around him, as shown in the Kentucky game.

Defensively, the Gators lack depth up front, but the starters and the first players off the bench have been extremely effective, the effects of a long game just wear on them throughout the course of the night. The linebacker core will be without sixth year senior Ventrell Miller, so younger athletes will be asked to step up. The secondary has played well so far, but won’t be tested much this game. Frankly, it won’t — or at least shouldn’t — take much to win this game.

Florida Gators Keys To Victory

1. Limit Turnovers
2. Convert Third Downs
3. Run The Ball

Official Prediction for Florida vs USF

Florida – 42
USF – 14