We are back at it again for the best bets on the Week 11 college football schedule. We almost went perfect last week, but got burned on the over in the Tennessee-Georgia game. Still picked Notre Dame over Clemson though! Here are five great college football bets for this Saturday’s games. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday morning.
#7 LSU at Arkansas: LSU -3.5 (-110)
LSU is a roll right now. They have won three straight against impressive competition. Alabama and Ole Miss were both top ten teams at the time, and Florida isn’t too shabby, either. Also worth noting, two of those three wins were by double digits.
Meanwhile, Arkansas just lost to Liberty. The Razorbacks are also 1-3 against ranked opponents this year. That lone victory came in the season opener against Tennessee. They just don’t look like they have the talent to compete with the top teams in the country right now.
With where the spread is, it’s clear what the bookies are thinking. They are factoring in the potential for an LSU letdown after that massive overtime victory over ‘Bama. I don’t see it. This Tigers team looks like it is just getting going. Jayden Daniels looks like he is making one of those classic late-season pushes for the Heisman.
LSU should take this one by at least a touchdown, and we should kick off our college football bets for Week 11 with a win.
#9 Alabama at #11 Ole Miss: Ole Miss +11.5 (-110)
I am violating a rule of mine here. Alabama is one of those teams that you should typically never bet against. However, this is not your typical Crimson Tide team. They are not nearly as dominant as they have been, especially on the road. In those games, they are 2-2 straight up and 1-3 against the spread. That one cover was against Arkansas and they were only spotting them 17.
The Rebels are quietly having a great season. One could argue they have had an easy schedule, but you can only beat the teams in front of you. They have beaten everyone but LSU. On paper, there is a significant gap between them and ‘Bama. That doesn’t factor in the current state of affairs though.
The Tide are reeling right now, as they are likely eliminated from the playoffs. The Rebels, however, still have everything to play for. A win this week would keep them in the CFP mix. That isn’t to say Ole Miss will win this one, but they should be able to stay within 10.
Wisconsin at Iowa: OVER 35.5 (-110)
We are going to go against conventional logic once again here. You wouldn’t typically bet the over in Big Ten contests, especially not this one. However, 35 is a borderline insulting number to set the over/under at. That means the oddsmakers are expecting something like a 17-16 game.
That would have made sense a few weeks ago, but a things have changed. Both of these teams are playing much better football as of late, especially offensively. In their last three games, the Badgers have scored about 27 points per contest. In that same span, the Hawkeyes have averaged about 22.
These teams aren’t going to exactly light the scoreboard up, but they know how to move the ball. Another thing that should help is that it will likely be a tight game. I would predict something like 20-17, maybe 21-20. Take the over here and capitalize on a head-scratching Week 11 college football bets line.
#4 TCU at #18 Texas: TCU Moneyline (+230)
Anytime a top-five team is an underdog, alarm bells should be going off in your head. This one feels like an overreaction. Do the Horned Frogs look extremely vulnerable? Yes. Are the Longhorns the team to knock them off? Probably not.
I get the concerns about TCU. They play everyone close, and they tend to not wake up until the fourth quarter. The consistency with which they do that is actually comforting. It means that they are less prone to letdowns and trap games. This game doesn’t fit into either of those scary categories, anyway.
For some reason, everyone thinks Texas is somehow back this year. It makes no sense considering they have three losses. Two of those losses coming in a good, but not great, conference, while the other one was a close defeat at home to an Alabama team having a down year.
Texas looks no different from recent years, in that they just look like another Big 12 team. Rest assured, TCU will get beat at some point before the CFP, but it is not happening this week. There is too much value here let Texas deter you.
#15 North Carolina at Wake Forest: UNC Moneyline (+155)
This one makes very little sense. I guess the idea is that two high-octane offenses should make this a toss-up. From there, the bookies probably just went with the home team in Wake Forest. There are several flaws with that logic.
First of all, the Demon Deacons’ offense has slowed down significantly in recent weeks. That, combined with the fact that they are terrible defensively, has led them to drop their last two games. With three conference losses, their season is effectively over. They’re bowl-eligible, but that is meaningless for a team that had ACC title aspirations three months ago.
The Tar Heels, on the other hand, are currently riding a five-game winning streak and look great. Their offense is playing great, and their defense has an actual pulse. Plus, they still have a lot to play for.
A win locks up the ACC Coastal division. The playoff door isn’t totally shut either. If they win out and capture the ACC title, they have a decent shot — depending on how everything else shakes out around the country. Hammer the Tar Heels and take home some money with your Week 11 college football bets.