We are back to bet another great week of college football and to uncover the best bets on the slate! We only went 3-2 last week, but it was a better week than the record would have you think. We hit on both upsets with TCU and North Carolina, plus we successfully bet against Alabama for the second time this year.
In the two losses, we missed the over in Iowa-Wisconsin game by two points because the Badgers got shut out in the second half, and LSU was a point shy away from covering. We’re drawing ever closer to a perfect week, let’s see if we can get it this time. Here are five of the best college football bets for this Saturday. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday morning.
#11 Penn State at Rutgers: Penn State -19 (-120)
The value on this isn’t the greatest, especially given the double-digit spread on the road. That being said, it is pretty much a lock. First, Piscataway is Penn State’s back yard. This is actually a big recruiting game for the Nittany Lions.
What really matters though, is their defense. In their last two games, they have held Indiana and Maryland to a combined 14 points. Those are very similar caliber opponents to the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers will be lucky to get above 10 points.
On the other side of the, Penn State has been running it up lately. They have been trying to get far enough ahead to get freshman quarterback Drew Allar as much playing time as possible. When Allar does get in, they keep running the offense to get him reps. There is no way Penn State gets held under 30 in this one. I like the Nittany Lions to cover on the road.
Illinois at #3 Michigan: Illinois +18 (-110)
Staying in the Big Ten, I don’t like Michigan to cover a similar spread against Illinois. The Fighting Illini are very stout defensively. They have not allowed more 31 points all season. In fact, outside two in which they gave up 23, they haven’t allowed more than 14 in any of their other contests. The Wolverines will certainly be their biggest test. However, Michigan hasn’t put up super gaudy numbers in the Big Ten — and Illinois will be one of the tougher defenses that they have faced.
Another important thing to remember is that Michigan has “The Game” coming up next week. It isn’t hard to imagine them looking past Illinois. Meanwhile, the Illini need this win desperately to keep pace in the Big Ten West. They won’t pull off the upset, but it will be close enough to cover.
Miami (FLA) at #9 Clemson: Miami +19 (-110)
Clemson hasn’t beaten an ACC opponent by more than 15 since their season opener against Georgia Tech. They simply do not have the offensive firepower to blow teams out. When the offense is humming, it’s doing so on the ground. That tends to shorten the game.
On the other side, Miami has been up-and-down this year. Overall, they are a middle-of-the-pack ACC team. Clemson has not blown out average ACC teams this year. This game will likely appear closer on the scoreboard than it will actually be. Clemson will win comfortably, but by less than 20. Take the points.
#22 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma: OSU Moneyline (+240)
We have to bet Bedlam. That is especially true when the bookies are giving a ranked team seven points against a team fighting for bowl eligibility. I just don’t understand this. I get that OSU is a little banged up, but quarterback Spencer Sanders appears ready to go this week. Yes, the Cowboys haven’t gotten a win in Norman since 2014, but this situation is very different from recent years.
The Sooners have a new head coach this year in Brent Venables. His tenure is off to a horrendous start. Oklahoma entered the year as playoff contender, but now they are 5-5. Oklahoma State has played pretty well this year. They need this one to stay in the hunt for the Big XII title game. Look for the Cowboys to take this rivalry game for the second year in a row, and cash in on some great value.
New Mexico State at Missouri: NMSU +29 (-105)
This is probably one of the most unwatchable games on the docket for this Saturday. These teams are both pretty horrible. That being said, there is money to be made here as one of the best bets on the college football schedule this week.
I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Mizzou is not good enough to be favored by 29 against anyone. Even the Little Sisters of the Poor could stay within 30 of the Tigers. The Aggies are probably a bottom-10 FBS program right now, but this is just too wide of a spread. 30-point covers are for college football’s super teams. The Missouri Tigers are barely a college football team.