Happy holidays folks! We are back with some more great NFL bets. Last week was rough; we had some bad beats. Here’s hoping that Santa leaves some covers under the tree this year. It’s one of those weird weeks in the NFL where most of the action will take place on Saturday, Christmas Eve, with some bonus games on Sunday, Christmas Day. Here are the five best bets for this weekend’s NFL Week 16 action. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday morning.
NFL Week 16 Best Bets
Lions at Panthers: Lions -2.5 (-120)
The Lions are rolling right now. They have won three in a row, including a win over the Vikings. Detroit has also won four of their last five, with the only blemish being a three-point loss to Buffalo. Head coach Dan Campbell has this team surging right now, and it is time to start thinking about the playoffs.
The Lions head to Carolina this week to face a bad Panthers team. Carolina has looked better as of late, thanks to the return of P.J. Walker. Nevertheless, this still feels like a hefty mismatch. Take the Lions here and don’t worry too much about laying 2.5.
Commanders at 49ers: OVER 37.5 (-105)
I know that Taylor Heinicke versus Brock Purdy doesn’t scream “quarterback duel,” but these guys aren’t playing bad football. They both arguably run their respective offenses better than their veteran predecessors in Carson Wentz and Jimmy Garoppolo. Both of these teams have talented wide receivers who can be deadly after the catch. Purdy and Heinicke are both capable of delivering them the ball in space.
Another thing to consider is that while both teams have stout defenses, neither one matches up well against the opposing offense. Washington struggled to defend Saquon Barkley on Monday Night Football last week. Christian McCaffrey will likely give them similar headaches.
On the other side of the ball, San Fransisco’s one weakness on defense is the cornerback position. The Commanders have the receivers to exploit that with Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin. I would expect both teams to break 20 in this one. Take the over.
Eagles at Cowboys: Cowboys -4.5 (-105)
All you need to know about this matchup is that Gardner Minshew is starting for the Eagles. Yeah, that Gardner Minshew. The interception machine. Literally, nothing else matters. Minshew replacing Jalen Hurts completely turns this matchup on its head.
Under normal conditions, this would probably be a very tight affair. The Cowboys would possibly be a slight favorite at -1, maybe more like a pick ’em situation. The line only moving a few points is astonishing. Hurts is a legitimate MVP contender. Minshew is barely an NFL quarterback. I like the Cowboys in this one up to about eight points. They should cover 4.5 comfortably.
Raiders at Steelers: Raiders Moneyline (+115)
We’ve got a frigid matchup in the Steel City to cap off Christmas Eve. Both teams are fighting to stay in the playoff hunt, so it should be a tight one. Something to keep an eye on: Kenny Picket is healthy for this one and will be back in the starting lineup. It is unclear as to whom that benefits. One could argue that Mitch Trubisky looked like an upgrade over Pickett last week against the Panthers.
Another important factor is the weather. It is going to be absolutely frigid in Pittsburgh this weekend. The team that wins this game will be the one who runs the ball well, and whose quarterback takes care of the football. Go with Derek Carr and Josh Jacobs to get the job done.
Broncos at Rams: UNDER 36.5 (-110)
This is a cartoonishly bad matchup. On one side, you have Baker Mayfield leading a depleted Rams offense against one of the league’s best defenses. On the other side, you have the hollow shell that was once Russell Wilson taking on a stout Rams defense.
These two offenses each average about 16 points per game. Keep in mind that’s factoring in matchups against lesser defenses. Given the defensive prowess of both teams, points will come at a premium in this one. Expect this game to be a race to 17. Hammer the under.
Best Bets for NFL Week 16 Recap:
- Lions (-2.5)
- Commanders/49ers o37.5
- Cowboys (-4.5)
- Raiders ML
- Broncos/Rams u36.5