The weekend is finally here, which means it is time to place your NFL bets! Last week, we had a rough go of it, losing two out of three, and we are now at 4-4-1 on the season for the NFL portion of our Best Bets series. However, in terms of units, we only lost 1.2 last week and we are still up 0.92 on the year!
Hopefully, we can get further into the black this week. We have some great picks to make that happen! All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday afternoon. Also, be sure to catch me and my fellow ATB bettors’ locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for Week 4!
Steelers at Texans: Texans Money Line (+124)
Betting on Houston feels sketchy, I know. They are a rebuilding team with a rookie quarterback; they aren’t going to win many games this year. However, this team is rapidly improving, and they just nabbed their first win of the season last week with a 37-17 route of the defending AFC South champion Jaguars. A big reason for that improvement is that their rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud, looks more like a veteran each week.
On the flip side, Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett is still making some rookie mistakes in his second year in the league. Pittsburgh’s issues go beyond the quarterback, though. The offense lacks a coherent scheme, and the defense is less dominant than usual. This is a mediocre ball club with a very misleading 2-1 record, after narrowly beating a Raiders team that appears to be in dire straits.
The Texans are a team trending in the right direction, while the Steelers are treading water. Both teams will likely finish with similar records this year. The Texans should even things out on paper this week with a win. They have solid value as well at +124.
Patriots at Cowboys: Patriots Money Line (+210)
We’re going back to the New England well once more this week. While they did not look spectacular in their win over the Jets last week, they should be poised for another win against Dallas. The Cowboys looked rough last week in a loss to the Cardinals.
A big part of Dallas’ struggles were injuries to several offensive lineman and star cornerback Trevon Diggs. Any flaws Patriots head coach Bill Belichick can take advantage of, he will. The Cowboys revealed them all last week. Expect New England to quietly pull off a big upset in the middle of the afternoon.
Chiefs at Jets: Under 41.5 (-110)
We are going to try again betting another Chiefs under. It looked like we had it in the bag last week, before we were thwarted in the fourth quarter by the Bears getting all ten of their points in garbage time. Despite being 6.5 points lower, there is plenty of reason to feel more certain about this week’s under.
For starters, Zach Wilson’s ineptitude makes Justin Fields look like a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback. Kansas City’s defense should have no problem holding New York to single digits.
Secondly, and most importantly, the Jets have a far better defense than Chicago. Even if the Chiefs have the ball all day, they will be struggle to break 30. At worst, this game might end 31-10, but it will probably be more like 24-6. Regardless, you should hammer the under.
Week 4 NFL Best Bets Recap
- Texans ML (+124)
- Patriots ML (+210)
- Chiefs @ Jets: Under 41.5 (-110)
- Parlay odds: +1225