The weekend is finally here, which means it is time to place your NFL bets! Last week, we got hosed in the fourth quarter of the Jets/Broncos game, leading us to go one for three for the third week in a row. We are now 6-8-1 on the season for the NFL portion of our Best Bets series. However, in terms of units, picking the Jags in London put us up 0.1 unit for the week, keeping us just barely in the black, up 0.26 units on the year.
Hopefully we can get further into the black this week. We have two great moneyline picks and an under that should be a lock to help make that happen. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Saturday morning. Also, be sure to catch my, and my fellow ATB bettors’, locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for Week 6!
Saints at Texans: Under 42 (-108)
We are going to keep betting Saints unders until we get burned. Through five weeks, they have yet to have a game hit the over. This week shouldn’t be any different. Don’t let last week’s 34-point romp against New England fool you, this is still a team with a subpar offense carried by an elite defense. Most of their points came off of turnovers, and they even had a defensive score. That’s not sustainable.
The Texans aren’t exactly playing any barn-burners either. The under is 3-2 in their games this year. Head coach DeMeco Ryans has Houston’s defense playing above their head. Offensively, they have a rookie quarterback who is playing well for his first season in the league, but is surrounded by below-average talent.
Everything about this game screams “20-17.” The under should hit fairly comfortably. Also, at -108, you’re getting 0.02 more units worth of return-on-investment than most bets on the total.
Eagles at Jets: Eagles -6.5 (-115)
Are the Jets good? Zach Wilson has actually looked competent over the last couple of weeks, and we know that defense is one of the top units in the league. Nonetheless, it’s time for a reality check. Remember, they played a Kansas City team that is not nearly as explosive offensively as in years past, and a Denver team that is just downright terrible. Playing the undefeated Eagles will be a much different test.
Philadelphia has had a weirdly quiet 5-0 start to the season. They keep on winning, but they aren’t blowing anyone’s doors off. That is a big reason why the spread is as tight as it is. They have only won by more than six points twice this year, but one of those came last week in an 11-point win against the Rams. Philly’s best football is likely yet to come.
Expect Wilson to struggle against the Eagles defense. The Jets defense might be able to hold on for a while, but this has all the makings of a boring 24-10 game. You should feel comfortable laying 6.5 with Philadelphia.
Cowboys at Chargers: Chargers ML (+114)
We are taking the upset on Monday Night Football. Betting on Brandon Staley is always an adventure, but there’s a lot of reason to feel good about this one. Los Angeles could not have gotten a bye week at a better time. The extra should allow star running back Austin Ekeler to return from injury this week. That is a huge boon for their offense.
Speaking of offenses, what happened to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys? They couldn’t get anything going against San Francisco last week, and it exposed a general lack of explosiveness we’ve seen all season. The defense didn’t look great last week, either. That is a big concern, as they have a tough test this week.
The Cowboys just don’t seem like they will be able to score enough to keep up with the Chargers. Also, one has to think that Los Angeles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will have something special planned for his old team. Take the Chargers in this one at a solid value.
Week 6 NFL Best Bets Recap
- Saints @ Texans: Under 42 (-108)
- Eagles -6.5 (-115)
- Chargers ML (+114)
- Parlay odds: +670