The Best Bets train is off the rails and careening into a small village. Just when things were starting to pop off for us, we get skunked. The 0-3 weekend drops us down to 16-17 on the season. We also lost 3.0 units, but we’re still up 2.82 on the year!
Here’s hoping we can get that momentum back as we head into the home stretch. We’ve got three more great picks this week. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Thursday evening. Also, be sure to catch my, and my fellow ATB bettors’, locks and underdogs of the week on Around the Book.
Let’s get into the best bets for Week 12 of the college football season!
Week 12 College Football Best Bets
Illinois at #16 Iowa: Under 32 (-112)
We tried getting cute last week for betting against Iowa outright. This week, we’ll play it safe and just bet against Iowa’s offense. That has been fairly reliable
Over the last five weeks, the Hawkeyes are averaging just over 15 points per game. Getting to that number this week won’t be easy against a solid Illinois defense. As bad as the offense is, the defense has been holding opponents to even fewer points, allowing just under eight points per game in that same span. The Illini should be able to eclipse this, but not by much.
Honestly, Iowa’s opponent is irrelevant. Like every other Big Ten foe, they will get sucked into an unwatchable rock fight. An Iowa game hasn’t eclipsed a total of 32 points in over a month. Don’t expect that trend to break this week.
#20 North Carolina at Clemson: North Carolina ML (+260)
This line feels too good to be true. On paper, there is no reason why the Tar Heels should be underdogs in this game. They have also generally looked like the better team this year.
The main arguments for Clemson would be that they are at home and that they looked solid a couple weeks ago against Notre Dame. Also, they have beaten the Tar Heels in each of their last five meetings. However, it is worth noting that their next most recent matchup after last year’s contest came all the way back in 2019. Those results mean nothing, as these teams are unrecognizable from what they were four seasons ago.
Even if you think Clemson has a real shot in this one, having them lay 7.5 points is just irresponsible. It is even more so when you remember that they have nothing to play for at this point. Meanwhile, North Carolina still has a shot at making the ACC title game, and their quarterback, Drake Maye, has a shot at playing himself into the top pick in the 2024 NFL draft. At +260, you can’t pass this one up.
#5 Washington at #11 Oregon State: Washington ML (+105)
Speaking of disrespectful lines, this one is even worse, despite it only being +105. Fellow ATB contributor Jake Brockhoff mentioned this pick earlier this week on Around The Book. Everyone should be jumping on this one.
There is no reason why an undefeated, top-five, Washington team with a Heisman contender at quarterback shouldn’t be favored against an 8-2 Oregon State team whose best win was an ugly victory at home against Utah. The only reason why you wouldn’t bet on the Huskies would be if you truly believed that they were not capable of going undefeated. If you truly believe that, they are more likely to drop this game than their regular season finale against Washington State.
That’s just silly. Washington has everything you need to have a perfect regular season. Most importantly, they play sound defense and they have a quarterback who can carry the team when needed. The Huskies will probably get beat at some point, but it probably won’t happen until the PAC-12 title game or the College Football Playoff. For now, I wouldn’t bet against them.
Week 12 College Football Best Bets Recap
- Illinois @ Iowa UNDER 32 (-112)
- North Carolina ML (+260)
- Washington ML (+105)
- Parlay odds: +1296