The weekend is finally here, which means it is time to place your NFL bets! Last week, we took a big step towards digging our way out of the hole. We hit big on the Browns moneyline and went 2-1 for the weekend. That brings us to a slightly less horrible 11-18-1 on the season for the NFL portion of our Best Bets series. After picking up 2.17 units over the weekend, we are now only down 2.96 for the year.
We have some great picks this week to keep this momentum going! All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday evening. Also, be sure to catch my, and my fellow ATB bettors’, locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for Week 11!
Best NFL Bets for Week 11
Bears at Lions: Lions -7.5 (-110)
Let’s start off with a really simple pick. You see, the Lions are a good team and the Bears are a bad team. Sometimes it isn’t that nuanced.
Detroit is 7-3 and looking like a legitimate contender in the NFC this year. Meanwhile, Chicago is floundering at 3-7. The return of Justin Fields helps, but that’s like putting a Band-Aid on a gunshot wound. It won’t be nearly enough to bridge the canyon that separates these two teams. Even in a wonky divisional game, the Bears just don’t have what it takes to keep pace.
At -7.5, this is a very generous spread. For comparison, ESPN Bet has it set at -9. Even that feels a little low. Detroit should win this one by double-digits. Lay the points.
Raiders at Dolphins: Under 46 (-108)
Betting an under in a Dolphins game may seem crazy, until you see their opponent. The Raiders have been playing low-scoring games all year. The over is 2-8 in their games this year. Also, Las Vegas has only played one game all year that has had a total over 46 points.
Meanwhile, Miami has gone over that total a lot, but they shouldn’t need to this week. The Raiders have struggled to score all season. However, they have made up for it by playing some stingy bend-but-don’t-break defense, which could limit the Dolphins scoring.
Expect this to be a short game. The Raiders have one of the league’s worst run defenses, so Miami should take full advantage of that regardless of which running backs they have available. On the other side, the Raiders have made it a point lately to get Josh Jacobs going. This run-fest should keep the scoring relatively low. Hammer the under.
Steelers at Browns: Steelers ML (+102)
Let’s make this ugly divisional game a little more interesting. The Browns seemed like they should be heavy favorites, but the loss of quarterback Deshaun Watson changes things. The Browns might still be the better team on paper, but it’s not as clear-cut.
While Cleveland has a strong roster, the quarterback position is a glaring concern. Rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has seen limited action this year, but we have seen enough to be concerned. His play is more problematic than Deshaun Watson’s Instagram DM’s.
Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback, Kenny Pickett, isn’t much better. That said, he is steady and more experienced. He should be able to do just enough to guide the Steelers to an ugly win. At +102, it is solid value for a team that should probably be favored.
Week 11 NFL Best Bets Recap
- Lions -7.5 (-110)
- Raiders @ Dolphins UNDER 46 (-108)
- Steelers ML (+102)
- Parlay odds: +642