Author: brian Maafi

Indianapolis Colts and RAS

Take a look at how GM Chris Ballard drafts players based on RAS scores

Courtesy of FOX 59

I find the connections between RAS and draft picks very interesting. I have done a number of articles relating to the Green Bay Packers and their connection to RAS and their draft picks. So I decided to do an article about it for other teams.

For those that do not know what RAS is it means Relative Athletic Score. Created by Kent Lee Platte. You can find his site at: https://ras.football/

I am only using teams whos GM/front office have been in place for at least three drafts. Its basically impossible to find correlations with only data from a couple drafts to work with. I feel like we can identify some trends with these teams. I like to take averages at each position so it give you an idea of where teams prioritize athletes.

Now I know everyone will say “well all you are going to find is that teams like to draft athletes”, “teams always want to get more athletic”. Which can be true. But there is more to it than that. Maybe its because its numbers and they don’t understand numbers? I am not sure. I am actually a film guy myself, but like I said earlier I still find it interesting.

Now that that is out of the way. First off we will start with the Indianapolis Colts.

Quarterbacks:

Since being hired in January of 2017 Chris Ballard has only drafted two quarterbacks. Also as we all know athleticism in quarterbacks is generally not seen as important. Even still it is interesting to look at the scores. With Jacob Eason scoring a 3.46 and Sam Ehlinger a 6.82 they average out to a 5.14

Running Backs:

With running backs Ballard has drafted four. With all their scores averaged out it comes to a 7.95. From the looks of it unless you have a special skill set(like Hines who can play all over), Ballard really likes his running backs to be athletic. If you take him out the average goes up to a 8.7.

Wide Receivers:

Now when it comes to receivers Ballard definitely has a type. Outside of Campbell all have been 6’1+ and even Campbell is close at just under 6’0. Their average RAS score comes out to a 8.26. Also of interest is it seems the Colts do not prioritize agility testing. All of them have been between poor to average in agility scores. Although Campbell had a good short shuttle score of 4.03 he does not have a 3 cone number on file. They all are also over 200 pounds. Three of them being 225+

Tight Ends:

With tight ends there is not much there to work with. Ballard has only drafted one tight end in his time. Kyle Granson in 2021 in the 4th round. Kyle has a score of a 7.72. He looks more like an h-back at 6’1 1/2 240lbs.

Offensive Line:

Since 2017 Ballard has drafted seven offensive linemen. three offensive tackles and four offensive guards. Their RAS average score was a 7.81. So pretty good, not super athletic, but up there. Now there is one guy dragging that score down. Zach Banner. He was drafted in the 4th round in Ballard’s first draft. His score was a 1.44. Which is really bad. If his score is removed the average shoots up to 8.87. So that tells us that Ballard really likes athletic offensive linemen. He also likes to draft linemen that are over 300. The lightest was Danny Pinter at 306. Five of them were 310+

Defensive Line:

Similar situation to tight end. Ballard in his time has only drafted two interior defensive linemen. Grover Stewart in the 4th round in 2017 and Robert Windsor in the 6th round in the 2020 draft. Both scored well athletically. Stewart had a 7.79, and Windsor scored at 8.68. They also have Tyquan Lewis who plays both end and tackle. If he were to be listed as an interior linemen his RAS would be a 9.69. So it seems they like relatively athletic interior linemen. Both Stewart’s and Windsor’s size and athletic testing vary so there is not much that can be gleaned from it, other than like like guys who are relatively athletic. It may be a position that he does not value as much draft wise.

Edge Defenders:

Here is where we get some interesting information. Ballard has drafted six edge defenders in his time. Their average ras score is a 9.22. This means he really values major athletes at this position. The lowest score was Terell Basham in 2017 with a ras of 8.2, the others are 9.3 or above. All have been between 250-270 when they were drafted. Ballard seems to like a range of sizes. Some smaller and some bigger. He likes fast guys. All have a 40 time of 4.7 or faster. Most importantly is overall a high level athlete.

Linebackers:

Another position of interest with the Colts. Ballard has drafted eight linebackers in his time. Seems as if it is a position he puts a lot of value in. As far as the RAS scores they have averaged a 7.3 which is pretty athletic. Even more interesting their top linebacker Darius Leonard didn’t test all that well. His RAS was a 4.9 which is basically average. If you remove his score the average goes up to a 8.2. So outside of Leonard who they must have saw something on tape that told the front office he was more athletic than he tested. They like to bring in really athletic linebackers. They also seem to like their linebackers 240 or under which kind of follows with their preference of uber athletic linebackers.

Defensive Backs:

Now this position is pretty interesting in regards to their RAS scores. So they have drafted nine defensive backs in the Ballard era. Nothing too crazy about that. One of the interesting parts is that four of them have no RAS scores. I do believe Julian Blackmon and Malik Hooker were coming off injury and that’s why they have no workout numbers. The other interesting thing is that the average score of the guys they do have RAS for is a 6.91. So a little above average. That in itself is really interesting. It tells me that athleticism is not a priority for this front office. At least not as the level it is for a number of other teams. For example Marvell Tell had a 9.2 RAS all the others are 7.35 or lower. All their db’s are of relatively average size as well.

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The Early Bird List part 3

Now on to my favorite position in the early bird list. The wide receivers. Again these lists are alphabetical. The previous part can be found here: https://atbnetwork.com/2021/08/10/the-early-bird-list-part-2/

Wide Receivers:

David Bell – Purdue

Good size at 6’2 205. Long arms with a large catch radius. Average overall athlete but he shows a good burst. There are questions about his ability to beat press. Also shows some rawness in his route running. He could move up with improvements.

Treylon Burks – Arkansas

Burks heading into the season is seen by most as the #1 receiver in the class. Great size at 6’3 225ish and also has speed to go with that big body. He can play inside or outside. Burks route tree is underdeveloped. Like a lot of college receivers. Will drop some balls. Like a bigger, faster version of Lavishka Shenault.

Romeo Doubs – Nevada

Good hands and decent size. Doubs is a real deep threat for Nevada. The Nevada receiver is fast and explosive. He had a big year in 2020, playing with Carson Strong probably helps a lot as well. Still has some rawness to his skills that need some refinement. Will drops some balls. Reminds me a little of Dyami Brown. Has the potential to move into the 1st.

Ty Fryfogle – Indiana

Big and physical at the point of catch. He actually likes to block. His athleticism is just average and he doesn’t get a lot of separation or YAC. So his upside may be limited. Fryfogle has versatility; having played inside and out.

Drake London – USC

London has a basketball background, and it shows on the field. He combines basketball size(6’5 200) and also football athleticism. He is physical with the ball in his hands. Still very raw as a route runner. His release package needs work. London’s long speed is just average.

Chris Olave – Ohio State

Elite route runner, the best in college football. His route running is good enough now to play in the NFL also he would not seem out of place. He has very good speed. His size is just average and he could learn to play a little more physical. He doesn’t show much interest in blocking. Olave is also versatile. He has been used all over the OSU offense in all different situations. Right now looking like the #1 or #2 receiver in the class.

George Pickens – Georgia

Pickens has great size(6’3 200+). He has long arms and has a bit catch radius. Tore his ACL in spring practice. So the question with him is will he play in 2021? Even if he does how much? Plays hard and physical. He does need work on his release package, very one dimensional. Also has some character questions that need to be checked into. The potential is there for him to be a high pick.

Reggie Roberson Jr. – SMU

Roberson is fast! also, he is a big time deep threat. Good hands for snatching the ball out of the air. He does have a history of knee and ankle injuries. That needs to be checked into. His route tree could use some development as well.

Justyn Ross – Clemson

Ross had a major neck injury last season. It will be important for teams to check into it. Ross was cleared recently for football activities though. He is tall and long like a lot of recent Clemson wide receivers. Also his Speed and agility are average. He is also a former basketball player which shows in his ability to go up and catch 50/50 balls. Great ball skills and hands. He will have occasional concentration drops. A physical blocker.

Garett Wilson – Ohio State

Average size, but high level athlete. Wilson has tons of upside. He can play in the slot and on the outside. Wilson also is a YAC monster. Has trouble with physical defensive backs. Early on in his career he may have to be used in the slot and in motion. Going into the season he is looked at by some as the top receiver in the class. He could become that with a big Junior season.

The Early Bird List part: 2

Part 2 below focusing on the running back position. Again as with the first part these are alphabetical not a ranking. Early on the running back class does not look great, but it’s early and there is still a season to play, so that may change. You can view the previous part here: https://atbnetwork.com/2021/08/05/the-early-bird-list/

Running Backs:

Jerrion Ealy – Ole Miss

A kind of do-it-all running back. He is a little undersized. Ealy is also well built. Ealy can be used all over the formation. Just get him the ball. Not built to be a every down back.

Breece Hall – Iowa State

Hall is seen by most in the scouting community as the #1 back entering the 2021 season. He brings great size, vision, decent speed and balance. Not many flaws in his game. Although he could improve some in the passing game.

Zonovan Knight – NC State

Knight is fast and also elusive. Knight shows good contact balance and good lower body power. Tends to be a one speed runner. Because of that he could learn some patience. Could rise with improvements.

Bijan Robinson – Texas

Big time recruit coming out of high school. Robinson does have a lot of talent but has yet to break out. He did show some flashes last season. If he puts it all together this year he could challenge Hall for the top running back spot.

Isaiah Spiller – Texas A&M

Very productive in his time at Texas A&M. Big(6’1 225). He shows good power on film. Also his blocking is advanced for a college back. He does most of his damage inside the tackles. Shows some quickness and burst to the outside. Long speed looks to be average. Some development in the passing game is needed.

CJ Verdell – Oregon

Verdell is a fast undersized back. Similarly he has shown he can be dependable in the passing game. He surprisingly decided to return for his senior year. He also has a solid compact build.

Zamir White – Georgia

Very good athlete with good size. Give him and lane and he will explode through it and he will be gone. But he does not get a lot of carries. Also he does have a bit of an injury history that needs to be check into. He also needs more experience in the passing game.

Kyren Williams – Notre Dame

Came out of nowhere last season. Williams rushed for 1,100 yards after only rushing for 26 the previous season. He showed good instincts and vision in 2020, he also showed well in the passing game. He is a bit undersized and how much growth his frame can handle is a question. Decent overall athlete.

Green Bay Packers 53-man roster prediction

This is my first roster prediction a week into camp. You can find the Packers 90 man roster here:https://www.packers.com/team/players-roster/ I will put up a second one at the end of camp right before cut down date. Lets get to it!

Quarterbacks-(2)

Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love

Kurt Benkert has become a cult hero among Packers fans. We all wish they would keep it. I just don’t see it happening though. He is very much a practice squad candidate. Rodgers and Love are self explanatory. I don’t think I need to say much beyond that.

Running backs-(4)

Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Kylin Hill, Patrick Taylor

I went with four because I do not think Hill or Taylor would make it through waivers. Also with Sternberger being suspended the first couple games they could hang on to an extra player and then hope to sneak him onto the practice squad a couple weeks later. Jones an Dillon will be running backs #1 and #2. They will see the majority of carries. Jones does have an injury history so we will probably see the #3 back get some carries at some point.

Tight End/Hback-(4)

Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis, Josiah Deguara, Dominique Dafney

With Sternberger being suspended the first two games this is a pretty easy call. Tonyan is the lead dog. He is a do it all tight end. Lewis is your blocker. Deguara and Dafney are your versatile Hbacks. Dafney has also shown some special teams prowess. Once Sternberger comes off the suspended list it will be interesting to see what the Packers decide to do.

Wide Receivers-(6)

Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers, Juwann Winfree

Before the Cobb trade I would have said the top five were probably locked in and they were not going to keep six. Now with Cobb and the camp that Winfree is having and his ability to play special teams I see them keeping him around for special teams duties and of course if there is an injury or two he could slide in and play some offense. I see them keeping him over EQ and Funchess exactly because of his ability to play special teams which is what the #6 receiver would have to be able to do. Since none of the top five receivers play special teams. Outside of kick and punt return with Rodgers and Cobb.

Offensive Line-(9)

David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, Lucas Patrick, Billy Turner, Jon Runyan Jr, Dennis Kelly, Ben Braden, Royce Newman

What they do with Bakhtiari and the rest of the group will be interesting. Do they put him on PUP? and how many linemen do they keep? 8? 9? 10? I feel they will roll with Bakhtiari on the initial 53 man roster, then move him to the IR so he will miss the first three games of the season. With him on the IR for three weeks I wouldn’t be surprised if they resigned Yosh Nijman, or a Cole Van Lanen for those three weeks.

Jenkins has been great so far in camp at left tackle. Myers has taken every snap at center with the 1st team so far. He’s a lock right now for the starting center. There has been talk about Patrick getting cut or traded because he would save money on the cap. I can’t see it happening. With a rookie at center they need his versatility and veteran experience he can impart on Myers. Turner has that four position ability. His best position is right tackle though where I think he will spend the whole season. Runyan Jr will probably start the season as the left guard until Bakhtiari gets back. Kelly will be the Packers swing tackle. Braden and Newman will provide guard/tackle depth.

Defensive Line-(5)

Kenny Clark, Dean Lowry, Kingsley Keke, Tyler Lancaster, TJ Slaton

I feel like this group is pretty much set. Clark is one of the better defensive linemen in the league. Keke should be the #2 guy next to him, but it will probably be Lowry with Keke being the #3 guy. Lancaster and Slaton can both play the nose. Slaton should allow Clark to get off the nose a little bit more and get some 1 on 1 match ups.

Edge defenders-(5)

Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Rashan Gary, Jonathan Garvin, Tipa Galeai

I feel the group was pretty set until Ramsey’s injury. Since none of the Packers top three edge rushers play special teams and last years 7th round pick Garvin played very minimal special teams the Packers need someone who can play special teams. Galeai is probably the best special teamer left after Ramsey’s injury. The Smith bros and Gary will take up the vast majority of snaps on the edge this season.

Linebacker-(4)

Krys Barnes, De’Vondre Campbell, Kamal Martin, Ty Summers

So far in camp it has been Barnes and Campbell as the top two. Martin has the talent to start, he just needs development. Summers has been a special teams ace and has shown some improvements on defense. Burks is around the same level of special teams player that Summers is, but Summers is better from scrimmage and is cheaper. McDuffie has missed all of camp so far on the NFI list. I feel he either gets better and gets in at the end of camp and ends up on the practice squad, or his injury lingers and he ends up on the IR.

Cornerbacks-(6)

Jaire Alexander, Kevin King, Eric Stokes, Shemar Jean-Charles, Chandon Sullivan, Kabion Ento

Jaire is Jaire, not much needs to be said there. Same with King, he is who he is. He is still probably the 2nd best corner on the roster right now. Stokes has struggled in camp which was expected. He never played corner until he got to college and he was only a two year starter at that. So he will need time. Sullivan has been the Nickel all through out camp, outside of a few snaps Jean-Charles has taken. Sullivan has look good in camp so far. I do not see him relinquishing the nickel job. Jean-Charles should see most of his time on special teams. Ento has flashed this camp and the last two training camps as well. Hopefully he can stay healthy. Hollman and Samuels will be his main competition for the last spot.

Safties-(5)

Darnell Savage, Adrian Amos, Henry Black, Vernon Scott, Will Redmond

Savage and Amos should continue to be one of the better starting safeties in the league. Savages game really took off once they moved him closer to the line and occasionally played him in the slot. I expect that to continue. That leaves who will be the 3rd safety? When Savage is playing near the line or in the slot I expect it to be Redmond. He is the only back up capable of playing free safety. He also is a good special teams player. Although the Packers could slide Amos over to free and bring in either Black or Scott and put them at strong. So far in camp Black has been ahead of Scott. He has been the safety in their big nickel package.

Special Teams-(3)

JK Scott, Mason Crosby, Hunter Bradley

Not much to say here. The Packers cut Bradley’s competition, so he is a lock there. Preseason will bear out the punter job, but I just don’t see Winslow beating out Scott. JK will be on a short leash though. Crosby is Crosby. No way in hell Molson would be able to beat him out. Molson wasn’t even that good of a college kicker. The Packers will probably keep a punter on the practice squad though.

There you have it. My 53 man roster prediction. I think that leaves the Packers with a pretty talented and deep roster. There will be some guys that are cut that won’t make it through waivers.

The Early Bird List

These articles will focus on bringing NFL fans who do not follow the draft closely the names of prospects for the 2022 NFL draft to keep an eye on. The first position we will focus on is quarterbacks. Note that these lists are in alphabetical order; not rankings.

Quarterbacks:

Sam Howell: Well built QB who had a really good 2020 season. Talented, but made questionable decisions at times. Could be one of the top QB’s drafted. Question is did all his weapons make him look better than he really is?

Phil Jurkovec: A little bit of a sleeper. He has some upside. Needs to play better overall. He could really move up with a big 2021 season.

Michael Penix Jr: Big sleeper from Indiana. He has all the physical talent to be a high pick. Injuries and inconsistencies have held him back.

Spencer Rattler: Probably the #1 quarterback heading into the season. Benched early in the season in 2020, but took off after that. five star recruit coming out of high school. He has a big upside. Only a redshirt Sophmore with just one year of starting experience.

Desmond Ridder: Tall but also athletic. Good production. But there is a lot of extreme views on him. People either love him or hate him. Accuracy issues.

Kedon Slovis: Similar in a long line of other SC quarterbacks. Smart, efficient, good in the pocket, good accuracy. But lacks much talent and upside. Reminds me of Ty Detmer.

Carson Strong: Big strong armed QB who some actually see as the #1 quarterback going into the 2021 season. Still not as well known as Rattler, Howell, and the others. Two year starter who made a big jump in 2020 after a ho hum 2019. He should be one of the top quarterbacks.

Malik Willis: He plays at small school Liberty, but was a transfer from Auburn. Uber athletic with a big arm. Only a one year starter so far at a small school playing against lower level competition. He still has a lot of technique issues and inconsistencies he needs work on. His draft stock is very volatile.