Welcome back for some more college football betting picks and our best bets for Week 4. Last week, we went 1-2 once again. That takes us to 3-6 on the year. At least we’re consistent! In all seriousness, it may be time to start fading these picks and betting the opposite. Do what you have to do.
We finally have an awesome college football slate to bet this week, as most of the country is playing conference games this week. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Thursday evening. Also, be sure to catch me and my fellow ATB bettors’ locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book (those picks are actually hitting). Let’s get started and dive in!
#22 UCLA at #11 Utah: Under 52.5 (-110)
Picking a Chip Kelly team to go under feels wrong, but it is not as crazy as you might think. Surprisingly, the under has it in each of UCLA’s last two games. It also helps that Utah has not hit an over all year.
There is reason to believe that could change with the return of quarterback Cam Rising. However, that could be a blessing in disguise for under bettors. Rising will certainly be rusty. Also, the Utes will likely be looking to ease him back into things with a run-heavy game plan. That makes even more sense when you consider their opponent thrives on offensive volume.
With Utah taking the air out of the ball on one side, and playing great defense on the other, UCLA is going to struggle to drag the total over 52.5. I love the under in this one.
Louisiana Tech at Nebraska: Louisiana Tech +20.5 (-108)
This pick is mostly predicated upon the fact that Nebraska might struggle just to score more than 20 points. So far this season they are actually averaging fewer than 20 points per game, and they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of defenses either. The Huskers have faced Minnesota (34th in FBS), Colorado (103rd), and Northern Illinois (78th).
For what it’s worth, Louisiana Tech is ranked 98th in scoring defense, but at least their offense can keep pace. The Bulldogs are averaging over 30 points a game. As long as they can get to 14 this week, they should be able to hold Nebraska under 35. This is one of those situations where the math outweighs the discrepancy in talent. Take the points.
#3 Texas at Baylor: Texas -14.5 (-110)
Texas might actually be back. The jury is still out until we figure out just how bad Alabama is, but it sure seems like the Longhorns are a legit top five team, at least. Baylor, on the other hand, is perhaps the biggest enigma in college football right now. The Bears started off losing to group of five Texas State, then gave #11 Utah a nail-biter, only to follow it up by letting Long Island, a mediocre at best FCS team, hang around into the fourth quarter.
If the pattern continues, Baylor should make a game out of this one. Regardless, they will struggle to stay within 20 against a Texas team that is rolling. The thing to really like about this pick is that it is a night game. It just feels like one of those games that stays close for a half, but then the favorite begins to impose its will and runs away in the fourth quarter. I love the vibes here, lay the points with the Longhorns.
Week 4 College Football Best Bets Recap
- UCLA @ UTAH UNDER 52.5 (-110)
- Louisiana Tech +20.5 (-108)
- Texas -14.5 (-110)
- Parlay odds: +601