The weekend is finally here, which means it is time to place your NFL bets! We just can’t catch a break right now. Last week, we went 1-2 for the sixth straight week. We tried taking advantage of some low total score lines by betting two overs, but it appears to be the year of the under.
That brings us to a dismal 9-14-1 on the season for the NFL portion of our Best Bets series. However, we only dropped 0.55 units for the weekend thanks to that Panthers win. That puts us down 2.13 units on the year. That is still a manageable hole to dig out of.
We have some great picks this week to get back on track! All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday evening. Also, be sure to catch my, and my fellow ATB bettors’, locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for Week 9!
Week 9 Best NFL Bets
Buccaneers at Texans: Bucs ML (+136)
We are betting against the Texans once again. Last week, they proved that, despite being better than advertised this year, they shouldn’t be favored against anyone. Houston’s rebuild may be accelerated, but they will still struggle to win more than three more games the rest of year.
This week, they get a Tampa Bay team who is also over-performing. Baker Mayfield is playing his best football in years. That, combined with solid play from the defense, has Tampa just half a game behind in the putrid NFC South.
Look, this is going to be an ugly game. These are two over-achieving teams that lack high-end talent. Both are being carried by well-coached defenses. This will be a race to 20. In a toss-up, I’ll take the Bucs at +136.
Rams at Packers: Rams ML (+142)
Here is another gross matchup to pick! Unlike the last matchup, these two teams are as bad as expected. Maybe even worse. In the Rams’ case, injuries and Father Time have been a huge factor. The Packers, on the other hand, are slowly beginning to realize that it might be time to rebuild.
While both franchises appear to be down, there are levels to this. The Rams may be 3-5, but all of their losses were to teams that currently have winning records. Meanwhile, the 2-5 Packers are riding a four-game losing streak, and the last three have all come against teams with losing records.
The Rams being underdogs in this one seems odd. I guess the idea is that their offense could be slowed down in a cold November game at Lambeau Field. However, it’s worth noting that Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has plenty of experience playing in Green Bay from his days with the Detroit Lions. A little cold shouldn’t be enough to cancel out the fact the Rams are clearly the better team.
Chargers at Jets: Jets ML (+150)
If we are going to resign ourselves to watching bad football in the hopes of hitting solid moneyline value, we might as well go all-in. Let’s wrap things up with a yucky Monday Night Football matchup between the 3-4 Chargers and the (somehow) 4-3 Jets.
One thing this game does have going for it is that these teams are essentially opposites of each other. Los Angeles boasts a top-ten offense, but a bottom-ten defense. Meanwhile, New York pairs a bottom-ten offense with a top-ten defense. Something has to give.
Personally, I’ll take a great defense over a great offense any day, especially when that offense has to travel to a hostile environment that is much colder than what they are accustomed to. Everyone thinks that this Jets winning streak with Zach Wilson is unsustainable, which is why they are underdogs.
Don’t count out that defense and don’t count out how bad of a coach the Chargers’ Brandon Staley is. Take New York to win outright.
Week 9 NFL Best Bets Recap
- Bucs ML (+130)
- Rams ML (+142)
- Jets ML (+150)
- Parlay odds: +1291