Category Archives: NFL

Best NFL Bets for Week 9

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The weekend is finally here, which means it is time to place your NFL bets! We just can’t catch a break right now. Last week, we went 1-2 for the sixth straight week. We tried taking advantage of some low total score lines by betting two overs, but it appears to be the year of the under.

That brings us to a dismal 9-14-1 on the season for the NFL portion of our Best Bets series. However, we only dropped 0.55 units for the weekend thanks to that Panthers win. That puts us down 2.13 units on the year. That is still a manageable hole to dig out of.

We have some great picks this week to get back on track! All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday evening. Also, be sure to catch my, and my fellow ATB bettors’, locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for Week 9!

Week 9 Best NFL Bets

Photo Credit: houstontexans.com

Buccaneers at Texans: Bucs ML (+136)

We are betting against the Texans once again. Last week, they proved that, despite being better than advertised this year, they shouldn’t be favored against anyone. Houston’s rebuild may be accelerated, but they will still struggle to win more than three more games the rest of year.

This week, they get a Tampa Bay team who is also over-performing. Baker Mayfield is playing his best football in years. That, combined with solid play from the defense, has Tampa just half a game behind in the putrid NFC South.

Look, this is going to be an ugly game. These are two over-achieving teams that lack high-end talent. Both are being carried by well-coached defenses. This will be a race to 20. In a toss-up, I’ll take the Bucs at +136.

Rams at Packers: Rams ML (+142)

Here is another gross matchup to pick! Unlike the last matchup, these two teams are as bad as expected. Maybe even worse. In the Rams’ case, injuries and Father Time have been a huge factor. The Packers, on the other hand, are slowly beginning to realize that it might be time to rebuild.

While both franchises appear to be down, there are levels to this. The Rams may be 3-5, but all of their losses were to teams that currently have winning records. Meanwhile, the 2-5 Packers are riding a four-game losing streak, and the last three have all come against teams with losing records.

The Rams being underdogs in this one seems odd. I guess the idea is that their offense could be slowed down in a cold November game at Lambeau Field. However, it’s worth noting that Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has plenty of experience playing in Green Bay from his days with the Detroit Lions. A little cold shouldn’t be enough to cancel out the fact the Rams are clearly the better team.

Chargers at Jets: Jets ML (+150)

If we are going to resign ourselves to watching bad football in the hopes of hitting solid moneyline value, we might as well go all-in. Let’s wrap things up with a yucky Monday Night Football matchup between the 3-4 Chargers and the (somehow) 4-3 Jets.

One thing this game does have going for it is that these teams are essentially opposites of each other. Los Angeles boasts a top-ten offense, but a bottom-ten defense. Meanwhile, New York pairs a bottom-ten offense with a top-ten defense. Something has to give.

Personally, I’ll take a great defense over a great offense any day, especially when that offense has to travel to a hostile environment that is much colder than what they are accustomed to. Everyone thinks that this Jets winning streak with Zach Wilson is unsustainable, which is why they are underdogs.

Don’t count out that defense and don’t count out how bad of a coach the Chargers’ Brandon Staley is. Take New York to win outright.

Week 9 NFL Best Bets Recap

  • Bucs ML (+130)
  • Rams ML (+142)
  • Jets ML (+150)
  • Parlay odds: +1291

2024 NFL Draft Notes: Episode 3

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Welcome back to my 2024 NFL draft notes article. I have been busy slaving away at updating my database and have finally found time to drop another draft notes article. So everything is the same as before. There is no specific order to these notes and they are not a final scouting report.

Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa:

Photo Credit: Matthew Holst/Getty Images

Will get physical with receivers, can body them up. Shows a strong punch. Needs to get better at disengaging from blockers. Iowa plays predominantly zone, not a lot of man coverage. Smooth backpedal. Can click-and-close. Decent tackler. Good overall athlete. Can be a little clunky when asked to stop-and-start. Sinking his hips and changing direction is a little slow. Has some pop in his shoulder pads. Willing to sacrifice his body. Good long speed as former high school track guy. Well-built with great size.

Has covered tight ends and didn’t look over-matched. Has some trouble with double moves. Arm length looks ok. Has trouble finding the ball with his back to it. Good leaping ability, can really get up. Good hands and can undercut passes if quarterbacks aren’t careful. Showed versatility by having played some pseudo-linebacker early in 2022. Doesn’t look like he could play slot in the NFL, pure outside corner, especially in a cover-3. Can fill the alley in the run game. Could move to safety.  

Jason Marshall Jr., CB, Florida:

Photo Credit: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Good size. Has experience in both man and zone. Will predominantly play side-saddle technique when in zone. Quick feet and has the speed to keep up with almost any receiver. Flips his hips with ease. Looks comfortable in mirror press. Does a good job of staying square as long as he can. Has gotten beat when he opened his hips too soon. Uses a one hand jam when he does press.

Occasionally bites on outside fakes. Motor could run hotter, jogs on plays away from him. Blocked easily by wide receivers; doesn’t seem to try to get off or even play half man. Gets physical in coverage, but otherwise seems to avoid it. Shows good route recognition in man, but seems a little off in zone. Drag down tackler; will hit on a rare occasion, but not much power. Rounds his cuts instead of click-and-close.

Just 36 career snaps in the slot, so his ability to play the slot is unknown. Should be able to do it physically, though. Needs to add strength; jams don’t seem all that effective. Lines up mostly on the left side. Can get into the receivers’ hip pocket with ease. Good overall trail technique.

Junior Colson, LB, Michigan:

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Can explode through open gaps and take the runner down. Has quick feet and jumps gaps with ease. Aggressive run defender; does not hesitate. Smooth change of direction with little-to-no wasted motion. Seems to have good length. Good tackling form; rarely misses a tackle. Very good stopping power, backs rarely get extra yards.

Motor is always running. Long speed is average to slightly above; looks to be in the 4.6-4.65 range. Looks about his listed size from 2022(6’2 235). Shows he can scrape down the line, keeps clear of the trash.

Ducks his head sometimes when tackling. Only adequate hip flexion. Needs to stay a little lower when backpedaling. Sometimes will lose the ball. Didn’t play much, if any, man coverage, but looked physically comfortable when he was asked to cover tight ends and backs. Okay at getting off blocks from tight ends and fullbacks. More of a block slipper than a block breaker. Will get stuck on offensive linemen. Still looks a little unsure in coverage at times.

Best NFL Bets for Week 8

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The weekend is finally here, which means it is time to place your NFL bets! Last week, we went 1-2 for the fifth straight week. We got burned by a fourth quarter offensive explosion in New England, and a second-half offensive freeze-up from the Cardinals. That brings us to a paltry 8-12-1 on the season for the NFL portion of our Best Bets series. In terms of units, we only dropped 0.76 for the weekend, which puts us down 1.58 units on the year.

We aren’t too far gone yet. Getting back to positive is still within striking distance. This week’s match-ups look pretty ugly, but it all pays out just the same. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday evening. Also, be sure to catch my, and my fellow ATB bettors’, locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for Week 8!

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Texans at Panthers: Panthers ML (+145)

Let’s kick things off with a (mildly) hot take. This is finally going to be the week in which the Panthers get their first win of the season. It won’t be easy. The Texans are better than expected this year. However, there is reason to believe Carolina can get it done.

As well as Houston is playing this year, this is still very much a rebuilding team. They don’t have a ton of high-level talent, and their rookie quarterback is still developing. There are no easy wins for a team in their position.

The Panthers are in a very similar boat. While they haven’t played quite as well as the Texans, it feels like that win is right around the corner. This pick is rooted more in vibes than data, but sometimes that’s what you need.

Vikings at Packers: Over 42 (-108)

We are switching it up this week and betting on the over. While this NFC North match-up may be ugly, it has significant potential for points. The Vikings have an offense that can put up points and a defense that struggles to stop anyone. On the flip side, Green Bay is average to below-average on both sides of the ball.

Minnesota should have no problem scoring against the Packers. Also, Green Bay should be able to score more than usual against a weak Vikings defense. It doesn’t hurt that we get the added chaos of a divisional matchup.

The most advantageous part of this pick is the line. At 42, it is clear the bookies are trying to adjust to all the low-scoring games we’ve seen this year. This is the time to pounce. Expect both of these teams to be somewhere in the mid 20s. The over may not hit by a lot, but it will get there. That is all that matters.

Chargers at Bears: Over 46.5 (-110)

Let’s keep the over bets going with some Sunday night fireworks. Both of these teams can score, and neither play great defense. Also, it seems as though the Bears offense hasn’t missed a beat with Tyson Bagent at quarterback in place of the injured Justin Fields.

Offensively, the Bears and Chargers combine to average a little over 46 points per game. That doesn’t look great for the over, but it gets a lot better when you look at the defenses. On that side of the ball, these two teams give up over 52 points per game combined.

It is hard to say who will win this game, but we know there will be plenty of scoring. This game will likely be a race to 30 points. Hammer the over.

Week 8 NFL Best Bets Recap

  • Panthers ML (+145)
  • Vikings @ Packers: Over 42 (-108)
  • Chargers @ Bears: Over 46.5 (-110)
  • Parlay odds: +800

2024 NFL Draft: Replacement Starters for the Green Bay Packers

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As we all know, the Green Bay Packers are a team that builds through the NFL draft. Since Brian Gutekunst has taken over as GM, he has sprinkled in some free agent signings, but the Packers cap situation isn’t great next season. There is space, just not a lot. So, let’s take a look at some potential openings within the current Packers starters that could be filled by prospects from the 2024 NFL draft. We will just list players projected to be early round picks.

Let’s start with the offense, and as always, don’t forget to check out my other writings and my database, which is updated daily.

Potential New Packers Starters from the 2024 NFL Draft: Offense

Center:

Josh Myers has struggled for the third season in a row. Unless he turns it around this season, he will probably be replaced in the offseason. Matt LaFleur could move Zach Tom there, but seems reluctant to. They could try Myers out at guard, but that’s for another discussion.

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  • Sedrick Van Pran – Georgia
  • Matthew Lee – Miami
  • Sincere Haynesworth – Tulane
  • Beaux Limmer – Arkansas
  • Graham Barton – Duke

Right Guard:

Jon Runyan Jr. is probably on his way out. He didn’t play great last year, and he has been worse this season. He’s a free agent and I don’t expect them to re-sign him. They could give Sean Rhyan a shot, but they have yet to do that.

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  • Cooper Beebe – Kansas State
  • Christian Haynes – UConn
  • Doug Nester – West Virginia
  • Tate Ratledge – Georgia
  • Donovan Jackson – Ohio State

Left Tackle:

David Bakhtiari’s cap hit for 2024 is way too high, especially for a guy who will be over 30, with four surgeries to the same knee since 2020. His knee won’t hold up, and there is no point in keeping him on a rebuilding roster. Rasheed Walker has been okay, but not good enough for the Packers to not turn to the 2024 NFL draft for a starter.

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  • Olumuyiwa Fashanu – Penn State
  • Joe Alt – Notre Dame
  • Patrick Paul – Houston
  • Kingsley Suamatala – BYU
  • Tyler Guyton – Oklahoma
  • Jordan Morgan – Arizona
  • Delmar Glaze – Maryland

Running Back:

There is a very real possibility that AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones are both gone this offseason. Dillion because he’s not a good fit for the offense — and his streaky play — and Jones because of his contract, injury history, and age. Emmanuel Wilson is obviously not the answer, but who is?

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  • Trey Benson – Florida State
  • Rasheen Ali – Marshall
  • Audric Estime – Notre Dame
  • Devin Neal – Kansas
  • MarShawn Lloyd – USC
  • Jonathon Brooks – Texas

Potential New Packers Starters from the 2024 NFL Draft: Defense

Linebacker:

De’Vondre Campbell is in a similar situation to Aaron Jones; Age, injury, and contract status could have the Packers moving on from him in the offseason. Quay Walker seems to have taken a step in 2023. None of the other linebackers on the roster are talented enough to be full-time starters.

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  • Curtis Jacobs – Penn State
  • Marlowe Wax – Syracuse
  • Junior Colson – Michigan
  • Tyrice Knight – UTEP
  • Cedric Gray – UNC

Safety:

I don’t think much needs to be said here. We all know about the Packers issues at safety. They have just two safeties under contract for 2024. They will probably need two new starters.

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  • Kamren Kinchens – Miami
  • Rod Moore – Michigan
  • Tyler Nubin – Minnesota
  • Andrew Mukuba – Clemson
  • Beau Brade – Maryland
  • Lathan Ransom – Ohio State

Best NFL Bets for Week 7

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The weekend is finally here, which means it is time to place your NFL bets! Last week, mistakes were made. Never bet on Brandon Staley. We went 1-2 for fourth week in a row, bringing us to 7-10-1 on the season for the NFL portion of our Best Bets series. In terms of units, it wasn’t great either. We dropped 1.08 for the weekend, which puts us down 0.82 units on the year.

Hopefully we can get back on track this week. We have some great divisional matchups to pick. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday evening. Also, be sure to catch my and my fellow ATB bettors’ locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for Week 7!

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Bills at Patriots: Under 40 (-110)

You know we love a good under bet here. The Patriots have been playing low-scoring games all year. Surprisingly, so have the Bills. The under is a combined 9-3 in games played by these teams this year.

That trend should continue this week. New England looks worse and worse by the week. However, their defense could keep Buffalo in check. It doesn’t hurt that the Bills won’t need to open up the playbook much to win this one.

Expect the Patriots to hang around in a game that looks a lot closer than it really is. Buffalo should win this game 20-13, or something like that. Even if they win handily, that would likely mean that the Patriots score even less. Even a 31-3 blow out would hit the under comfortably. This is a safe pick.

Commanders at Giants: Giants ML (+124)

It seems counterintuitive to bet on the Giants, but there is a method to the madness. As poorly as they’ve played, the fact that they played Buffalo so close, is reason to believe they are due to get back in the win column.

If the defense can keep playing well, the offense should be able to get back on track against a Washington team that is giving up almost 30 points per game. The Commanders have not been spectacular this year by any stretch. You could argue that the best team they have beaten all season is a struggling Atlanta team, who they beat last week. The week prior, they got pummeled by the floundering Bears.

The Commanders should not be favorited against anyone. That is especially true in a divisional game. If the Giants are ever going to get back on track, this is the week to do it. At +164, they are worth throwing a few bucks on.

Cardinals at Seahawks: Cardinals ML (+310)

Speaking of divisional games, this another great opportunity to take advantage of rivalry chaos. The Cardinals have already pulled off one big upset this year, beating Seattle seems very feasible by comparison.

The Seahawks’ 3-2 record looks a lot less impressive when you consider that the Lions are the best team they have played all year. Other than Detroit, Seattle has mostly played the dregs of the league.

The Cardinals would fall into that category, but they have shown signs of life whilst playing a very tough schedule. They are certainly capable of knocking off a slightly-above-average divisional opponent. At +310, you can’t pass that up.

Week 7 NFL Best Bets Recap

  • Bills @ Patriots: Under 40 (-108)
  • Giants ML (+124)
  • Cardinals ML (+310)
  • Parlay odds: +1653