Tag Archives: 2022 NFL Draft

Decoding The “Packers Way” Part 2

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Welcome back to part 2! In this article we will be decoding the “Packers way” in regards to defensive players. As I stated in one of my previous articles the Packers have a certain way of doing things with regards to the NFL draft and their thresholds for prospects. You can also check out part one on the offensive players. We will be laying out, in simple terms and data, how the Green Bay Packers approach drafting defensive players.

I previously wrote about this back in April of 2021. In that article, I based most of my findings off of Ted Thompson’s draft picks. Now that Brian Gutekunst has had two more drafts, we can more clearly see his trends. I will still refer back to Thompson sparingly since Gutekunst did learn under Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson; the architects of the “Packers Way”. Some of that is connected to RAS. We will break it down by position.

Defensive line:

Under Ted Thompson, defensive linemen averaged a RAS score of 7.29. With Gutekunst, it has been 7.77, and if you take out Jonathan Ford it jumps to a 8.83; so it can be said that Gutey prioritizes athletes along the defensive line more than Ted did. They have all been at least 6’2 and 290 or heavier, so while he is a good player, do not expect the Packers to draft a player like Calijah Kancey who is probably about 6’0 275.

Gutekunst also has only drafted guys with 32″ arms or longer. The bare minimum vertical was 29″, where oddly enough seven draft picks dating back to Thompson all had. 8’6″ seems to be the minimum with broad jump, but it seems Gutekunst and company like guys closer to 9’0.

In regards to 40-yard dash times, there have been two players with slow 40 times, Johnny Jolly and Jonathan Ford, with both running over 5.45. After them though, the next slowest is a 5.14; with a lot of them running under 5.1. Both players seem to be outliers.

So, look for defensive linemen who run in the 5.15 or faster range. The slowest short shuttle was a 4.89, but most draft picks ran under 4.8. The slowest 3-cone was a 7.91, but the majority have run 7.65 or faster.

Edge rusher:
Credit: Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

When it comes to edge rushers, the Packers haven’t changed the type they target. Historically, they like guys who score high athletically. Since Ted came aboard, they have averaged an 8.21 on the RAS scale, and with Gutekunst it has been 8.65. What has changed, though, is the body type.

With Dom Capers in town they tended to go after the smaller and more bendy type edge rushers. Since Mike Pettine was the defensive coordinator, the front office has liked to draft longer and stronger guys who tend to be more power players. The Packers have drafted guys in the 6’4+ range and weighting 260 or more. All four of his picks have also had 34″ or longer arms, 33″ might be ok, but I wouldn’t look at anyone shorter than that.

The lowest vertical jump was 36″, so look for anyone with a 35″+ vertical. 9’9″ is the shortest broad jump since Ted took over as GM. It looks like Gutey prefers guys with 10′ or longer jumps. As for 40 times, the Packers clearly do not prioritize that, as you have one guy with a 4.45 and another with a 4.87. The slowest short shuttle was a 4.54, but most have been 4.4 or faster. When it comes to the 3-cone drill the slowest has been a 7.51, but most are 7.3 or faster.

Linebacker:
Credit: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

Gutkunst has drafted six linebackers in his time as GM. This is a position where he has taken a big departure from his predecessor . The average RAS under Thompson was a 5.98; under Gutekunst it has been a 9.06. So obviously a massive jump in required athleticism by the front office.

As for size, the minimum threshold is around 6’1, 230 pounds. The preference is probably about 6’3 240. Arm length has kind of been all over, with the shortest being 30 1/4″ and the longest 33 1/3″, but you could say 30 1/4″ is the minimum.

In regards to athletic testing, the lowest vertical jump was 32″. The shortest broad jump was 10’1″ — this seems to be a test the Packers prioritize with their linebackers. On to everyone’s favorite, 40 times. The slowest 40 time has been a 4.61, which makes this another prioritized test.

Short shuttle tests don’t seem to be as important, with the slowest being 4.46 and others in the 4.3 range. 3-cone drill, though, does seem to be something they key on, with the slowest being a 7.5 but the next slowest was a 7.25 and a lot of them being 7.1 or faster.

Defensive back:
Credit: Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Now this is where the fun begins. There has been much hand wringing over the Packers thresholds at defensive back. The minimum height they will draft is 5’10 1/4″. It used to be 5’10 1/2″ under Wolf and Thompson, which they stuck to religiously. Gutekunst is a little more flexible, where he will make an exception if a player is worthy. Jaire Alexander is a great example, as he was 5’10 1/4 at the combine.

Size:

The Packers also like bigger corners, preferring guys who weigh in over 190. They also want guys with arms that are 31″ or longer. With safeties, they like guys who are “corner sized”: usually 5’11 or taller, 200 pounds plus, and 31″ arms or longer as well.

Testing:

Now to the testing, The average RAS score of the corners is an 8.33. With vertical jumps, the minimum is 35″. As for the safeties, Gutekunst has only drafted one in his time so I will include Thompson’s picks as well. The average RAS is a 7.51, but I’m betting once Gutey drafts more it will be more like 8.0 or higher. Vertical jump would be the same as with the corners. The lowest broad jump was 9’11”, all the rest are 10’3″ or more so I would start with at least 10′. It’s a similar situation at safety with the broad jumps.

On to the 40! The slowest 40-yard dash since Gutekunst took over is a 4.56, and I would say that is probably where their threshold is for the corners. With regards to the safeties, the slowest was a 4.62 under Ted Thompson, but all the others were 4.56 or faster; so the 4.56 would be a good starting point, as well.

For the agility testing, the slowest short-shuttle for a corner was a 4.36, there was also some 4.33, 4.34, so I would say 4.36 is the threshold. At safety the slowest was a 4.4, and, as stated earlier, its probably lower than that now with Gutey, so I would stick with the 4.36. On the 3-cone drill, the slowest was a 7.15, but most corners have tested lower than 7. Similarly with the safeties, the slowest was a 7.16, but most were 7.03 or faster, so I would start there.

Next Steps for the Miami Dolphins This Offseason

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The Miami Dolphins have had a roller coaster of a season to say the least. Each time they have seemingly pulled away from Wild Card contention, they completely neutralized their winning streaks, and are now sitting at 8-8 with a game to go.

There is still a chance to make the playoffs, which will lie in the hands of Skylar Thompson against the New York Jets. If Miami can win (along with a Patriots loss to the Buffalo Bills), they will secure their first playoff berth since 2016.

However, it is clear that there are underlying issues within this franchise, many of which need to be solved this offseason in order to maximize the potential of the Mike McDaniel regime. Thus, here are some potential solutions to the issues the Miami Dolphins face this offseason.

Miami Dolphins defensive coordinator Josh Boyer could be fired this offseason
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Doug Murray

The Josh Boyer Problem

When the Dolphins hired Mike McDaniel, they maintained a supreme confidence in their defensive coaching staff from the Flores regime. It was clear that they saw that unit as the catalyst for their back to back winning seasons, and that faith extended to defensive coordinator Josh Boyer.

That faith, however, seems to have been misplaced. With similar talent to Miami’s opportunstic units of the past, the Dolphins’ defense has fallen off a cliff. They rank 27th in points per game and are 30th in takeaways. That’s a far cry from their significant successes in those areas over the past two seasons.

Their pressure numbers have also clearly been lacking. Despite trading for Bradley Chubb, they are middle of the pack in sacks. Along with this, they have been unable to gain pressure without blitzing. With a pass rushing duo as promising as Jaelan Phillips and the aforementioned Chubb, the volume of blitzes and schemed pressures called by Josh Boyer has been dumbfounding.

The bottom line is that Miami needs a new defensive coordinator. There is simply too much talent along the defensive front to struggle the way they have. Some have suggested switching to a 4-3 scheme, which makes sense with the personnel on the roster.

Phillips and Chubb can play strictly on the edge, with Sieler and Wilkins wreaking havoc on the interior. The potential change is a more natural fit for their skill sets, and would limit mismatches in crucial situations.

Either way, it’s clear that it’s time to make a change on the defense. Moving on from the final Flores holdover may be that step.

The Quarterback Conundrum

The end of the season has been catastrophic, regardless of playoff success, and the simple fact is that the quarterback play has not been up to par over the last month or so.

Following a five game winning streak where Miami didn’t play a single top ten defense, the Dolphins faced a tough December. It’s safe to say that the team, and specifically the quarterback, didn’t make the most of it.

Dolphins’ fans biggest fears were realized as, against Miami’s toughest stretch of opponents, Tua Tagovailoa absolutely collapsed. He threw less than 60% completions against the 49ers, Chargers, and Bills, as Miami lost all three. Then, in a Christmas day game against the Packers, Tagovailoa threw an interception on each of the offense’s three fourth quarter drives. It was later discovered that he suffered a concussion prior to those interceptions, but that only adds onto the concern over the “injury prone” label.

Miami is now playing their final games of the season with backup quarterbacks. Although they spent significant capital on Teddy Bridgewater, it’s clear that it hasn’t panned out. He has been unable to win any games to this point, and has been injured himself at times this season. With Tagovailoa bound to miss significant time, it’s important to secure a high level backup, and Bridgewater hasn’t been that.

The Quarterback Solution in the Miami Dolphins 2023 Offseason

This leaves two potential solutions, one of which is much more aggressive than the other. The first is to draft a young quarterback to back up Tua Tagovailoa. It’s clear that pursuing backups such as Jacoby Brissett and Bridgewater hasn’t worked. Thus, a rookie would not only potentially be more effective, but cheaper with a higher ceiling. This quarterback class has some depth, and Miami could bring in a young backup to excel in ways Bridgewater has failed.

The second path is far more controversial.

There are several starter-level quarterbacks rumored to be moved this offseason. Tom Brady and Derek Carr are expected to be free agents, while there are rumors of Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson being on the move as well.

It’s undeniable that Tua has improved this season. Miami’s offense sat atop the league for significant stretches with him at the helm. However, when you combine the injury history and consistent drop off against high-level opponents, it’s not a stretch to say that it may be in the Miami Dolphins’ best interest to be aggressive this offseason.

The Dolphins are likely squandering away the first year of a three-year Super Bowl window. Talents like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle don’t come around often, and outside of a historic comeback, their first year will have all been for not.

Miami must ensure that the next two years are different, and without a first round pick, they can’t secure a top flight quarterback prospect. Despite this, there are options available who provide a ceiling and consistency that Tagovailoa lacks. Miami has the chance to go from good to great, and Stephen Ross is tired of watching his years of spending be unfulfilling.

Photo Creit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Chris Grier Dilemma

The last of the potential moves would be the biggest, and it involves general manager Chris Grier.

Grier has been with the organization dating back to 2000, even predating owner Stephen Ross. He has continued to rise up the organization, becoming Ross’ right hand man and general manager in 2016.

Despite his rise, however, the Dolphins haven’t won a single playoff game in the last twenty years. The team seemingly finds themselves in the same position year-in and year-out, and Grier remains a constant. It was his recent work, however, that may be the final straw.

When the Miami Dolphins decided to go for a full rebuild in 2019, they positioned themselves for a crucial 2020 offseason. They held five picks in the first two rounds of that draft, including three firsts. Their haul? Tua Tagovailoa, Austin Jackson, Noah Igbinoghene, Robert Hunt, and Raekwon Davis.

The 2020 Blunder

The last two have been solid, with Hunt proving this season that he can be a cornerstone of Miami’s line. However, it’s the first round picks, Tua, Jackson, and Igbinoghene where the missteps are clear.

While the verdict on Tagovailoa is unclear, the same can’t be said about Justin Herbert. Taken only one pick later, Herbert has vastly outperformed his 2020 colleague. The last pillar of the Tua-Herbert debate was the idea that Herbert couldn’t win big games. That has now fallen with Herbert’s Chargers clinching a playoff spot and Miami on the outside looking in yet again.

Jackson and Igbinoghene are a similar story. Both have underperformed to their draft slot, with the latter struggling to see the field at all. While Jackson has started, his production has lacked, and this year he has been unable to stay healthy.

Thus, in arguably the most important draft in franchise history, Miami selected the following:

The wrong quarterback, a below average right tackle, a cornerback who doesn’t see the field, an above average right guard, and a starting caliber nose tackle.

This simply isn’t going to cut it for Grier, who is now seeing the successes of talents of like Justin Herbert, Justin Jefferson, and Jonathan Taylor (all of which were available with Miami’s respective first round picks).

It’s not unheard of for a team to keep a coach and hire a new general manager. That may very well be the path if Ross decides to move on from Grier.

The Bottom Line on the Miami Dolphins Offseason

No matter what Ross ends up doing, it’s clear that a change needs to be made. Miami can ill afford to squander the Super Bowl potential of the high-end talent on this roster. Tyreek Hill may very well be the best Dolphin since Dan Marino, and his presence must be capitalized on.

It likely won’t be as drastic as firing a general manager, but there are reasonable changes to make. Time after time, Stephen Ross has seen his teams come up short and December and January. He holds the power to ensure that this time is the last and that the Miami Dolphins’ Super Bowl hopes are realized. That starts with this offseason.

What To Do With The Packers Defense?

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Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry has struggled with the defense this season
Credit: Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

What should be done with the Packers defense? This has been a much-discussed topic among Packers fans this season. The defense was showing some signs of improvement last season, even though the rankings didn’t show it. Preston Smith, Rashawn Gary, Kenny Clark, DeVondre Campbell, Rasul Douglas, Dean Lowry, and Eric Stokes all had big seasons in 2021. The defense also came to play against the 49ers in the playoffs. There were a lot of reason for optimism entering the offseason.

Once in the offseason the Packers re-signed Campbell and Douglas. They also signed Jarran Reed and Keisean Nixon as free agents and drafted Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt in the first round. Jaire Alexander was expected to be healthy for 2022. The Packers defense looked stacked from the outside.

During offseason work and training camp the defense looked ahead of the offense, outside of a few practices here and there. The excitement was building.

An Up-and-Down Start for the Packers Defense

Justin Jefferson tore through the Packers secondary. Most felt it was first game jitters — a lot of the regulars hadn’t played much in the pre-season and they stunk the first game of the 2021 season also, and we know how that season went. So, no one was too worried. Game two came and they trounced the Bears 27-10 and all was right with the world. Then there was the close win over the Bucs. Expected with Tom Brady at the helm, and this probably going to be a more defensive team.

Week four was the start of questions. It was an overtime win over a very mediocre Patriots team that had no passing game, and was starting Brian Hoyer at quarterback. He was lost early in the game and they had to go to a rookie. They still rushed for 167 yards and 5.1 yards a carry.

Then came the Giants game

A team that was a bit of a surprise early in the season, but Daniel Jones was playing injured and they were another team that lacked much of a passing game. The defense gave up 27 points and the Packers couldn’t keep up. The Giants had 125 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

This set off an unprecedented event in the Matt LaFleur area; five losses in a row. He had never even lost two in a row, let alone five. The offense was part of the issue, but so was the defense. They ended the streak by beating the Cowboys, but of course followed that up with two losses in a row, effectively ending their season.

So what do the Green Bay Packers do on defense?

The rest of the season still has to be played out. Many things could happen, but certain things need to happen, some should happen, and some should still be played out.

What needs to happen?
  1. Joe Barry and the entire defensive coaching staff needs to be fired. Barry is what he was in Washington and Detroit. Montgomery has not developed any of the defensive linemen. Rebrovich hasn’t seemed to have much of an impact. Gray/Downard need to go because the communication in the secondary has been terrible. Olivadotti helped turn Campbell into a good player and has gotten some stuff out of Quay, but hasn’t done much else. They need a clean sweep.
  2. They need to stop bringing in these retread defensive coordinators. Bring in someone young. Someone willing to be aggressive. Which is easier said than done, of course.
  3. The Packers need to marry the scheme to the players. Barry’s system seemed to be a square peg in a round hole situation with a number of the players.
  4. They need to move on from older veterans who are past their prime. Preston Smith, Dean Lowry, and Adrian Amos are all past their primes or have had slippage in play and are not worth bringing back.
  5. The Packers need to find some way to offload Savage, even if it means trading him for a 6th round pick and having to take a bit of a hit on the cap and paying a chunk of his salary (thanks for the idea Ken Ingalls). He has been bad the last two seasons and probably needs a change of scenery. Even if they just get a 6th.
  6. They also need to figure out what they are going to do at corner? They have two guys in Douglas and Stokes who are pure outside corners. They also have the highest paid corner in the league with Alexander, who of the three is best fit in the slot, but he doesn’t seem interested in playing there full-time. Someone needs to go or change position.
  7. Cut Jonathan Garvin. He is not very good. It’s time to move on.
  8. Light a fire under Alexander. He is not playing like pre-injury Jaire. He is “making business decisions”
Cornerback Jaire Alexander, the star of the Packers defense
Photo Credit: Stacy Revere/Getty Images
What should happen?

These are things that should happen, but if they don’t it’s not a big deal.

  1. The Packers should let Jarran Reed walk. He has helped the team most definitely, but has he done enough to be re-signed? No. Is he young with some upside to him? No. Should the younger guys get more snaps? Yes.
  2. Krys Barnes is the only restricted free agent the Packers should bring back on defense. While McDuffie started some games in Barnes and Campbell’s absence, Barnes is the superior player and allows McDuffie to focus on special teams.
  3. Of the unrestricted free agents on defense, two should definitely be re-signed with deserved pay bumps: Keisean Nixon and Rudy Ford. Both are indispensable on special teams and both are solid depth pieces on defense who can contribute from scrimmage. Nixon should be the kick returner.
  4. The Packers should bring in, either through free agency or the NFL draft, an edge rusher who can actually drop in coverage a little. This has been a problem with the defense for awhile. Teams know going in they aren’t dropping, so they can’t zone blitz.
  5. Draft an edge rusher fairly high. Preston Smith is gone, and Gary might start the season on the PUP.
What still needs to be played out?
  1. Justin Hollins play. He has played one game so far and gotten a sack, but it’s still too early to say. My bet is they re-sign him and bring him to camp, though.
  2. Should they re-sign Dallin Leavitt? He is a pure special teamer. The Packers already have Carpenter, SJC, McDuffie, Nixon, Ford, and Barnes who are all core special teamers. Do they need another one?
  3. Can Jonathan Ford help Kenny Clark? He is a big nose tackle. Get him out there and give him a chance.

Final conclusion on the Packers Defense:

I have my doubts that Gutekunst and LaFleur will do everything here, but if the important things are done, like dumping the staff and getting rid of dead weight, this could go a long way towards remaking the defense. The talent is there; it just needs to be harnessed correctly.

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Miami Dolphins Rookies: Making the Most of Their Assets in 2022

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Skylar Thompson - 2022 Dolphins rookie QB
Photo Credit: Getty Images

Miami, just like the rest of the NFL, has cut their rosters down to 53 players. Every team has surprises across the board, but perhaps none are as pleasant as the Miami Dolphins seeing several late round and undrafted rookies make the team in 2022.

As the roster stands, Miami has five rookies on their 2022 roster. Those include Channing Tindall, Erik Ezukanma, Skylar Thompson, Tanner Conner and Kader Kohou. As a team that only made four selections in the 2022 NFL draft and is looking to compete, it’s impressive that they view these five players, including two UDFAs, as guys who can contribute to winning football.

Each player presents an interesting case and path to production both, today and in the future. It’s only right to show how impressive they’ve been.

Miami Dolphins 2022 Rookie Class

Channing Tindall

The first of the Miami Dolphins rookies selected in 2022 came by way of Georgia, in the form of linebacker Channing Tindall. The third rounder was lauded for his speed, athleticism, and ability to make stops in the open field. Miami was in desperate need of another coverage linebacker, so there was a natural fit.

Channing Tindall has impressive speed.

Since arriving on the team, it’s been a quiet offseason for Tindall. We haven’t heard about many big plays in training camp, or seen them in preseason, but it seems like it’s only a matter of time. His athletic profile alone makes him potentially dangerous down the stretch, and as he gains more knowledge of the playbook and his responsibilities, he has the potential to make an impact.

Erik Ezukanma

After taking Tindall in the third, Miami went to the offensive side of the ball in the fourth, selecting Texas Tech wide receiver Erik Ezukanma. Miami had already spent significant draft capital at the position, signing Cedrick Wilson, and more notably, trading for Tyreek Hill. However, Ezukanma clearly brought a skill set the team lacked. His combination of excellent ball tracking in one-on-one situations and ability after the catch made him a perfect fit for Mike McDaniel’s offense, which thrives on getting players who strive in YAC scenarios.

Erik Ezukanma was impressive in training camp.

That fit has demonstrated itself time and time again throughout camp and the preseason, along with a veteran-like ability to sit down in the soft spot of zone coverage. Day after day in camp, “Eazy-E” was listed as one of the top performers, and even got some run with the starters. He has a skill set unique to not only this team, but most of the league. Thus, there is a clear path to playing time and overall contribution for Ezukanma.

Skylar Thompson

Up next is the most surprising — and impressive storyline — of them all. With one of Miami’s two picks in the seventh round, they decided to take a flier on a quarterback. While many disagreed with the pick, it has been Kansas State signal-caller Skylar Thompson who has shown, more than just about anyone else, why he deserves a spot on the roster.

Thompson had his flashes in camp, showing off his deep ball accuracy and ability to read the field. However, especially in the last game of the preseason, he truly showed that he fits the “gamer” label. Snap after snap, throw after throw, Thompson was getting through his progressions, showing above-average mobility, and, most impressively, showing top-notch deep ball accuracy.

Skylar Thompson has impressive deep ball accuracy.

When Mike McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier discuss Thompson, it’s clear that they feel like they struck gold. With his performances throughout the last month, it was clear that he would’ve been claimed of waivers. In making this roster, he has already exceeded that seventh round value.

Tanner Conner

Following the draft, Miami made it clear that they weren’t done, securing several top-end undrafted free agents. One of these was former Idaho State receiver Tanner Conner.

Conner is the most athletically gifted of the bunch, coming in at 6’3″ and running a 4.37 second 40-yard dash. However, as with any undrafted free agent, there were some questions with his game. In particular, if he could play receiver in the NFL. While physically imposing, he lacked refined route running skills and wasn’t proficient in attacking or high-pointing the football. However, Mike McDaniel had a plan for him, which involved a change of position.

Tanner Conner made the transition to a tight end and fullback role.

Tanner Conner has made the transition to tight end, also taking on the h-back role at times. This move, which perfectly embodied his potential as well as his current skill set, resulted in a newfound ceiling in his game.

Conner made several plays in training camp, and was a clear contributor in the preseason. Thus, Miami felt it was imperative that they keep him on the roster this upcoming season. Chris Grier even mentioned that other teams called to check on his status.

While this move is primarily for the future, Conner was able to come in, change positions, and make the roster all in a matter of months. An extremely impressive feat. If he continues to impress, there is a clear role for his skill set under this regime.

Kader Kohou

The last of the Miami Dolphins rookies from the 2022 class to make the roster might be the one with the biggest role. As a part of the aforementioned UDFA class, Miami signed Texas A&M-Commerce cornerback Kader Kohou.

In a group that featured Xavien Howard, Byron Jones, Nik Needham, and high-end draft picks such as Noah Igbinohgene, Kohou was once thought of as an afterthought. However, with injuries to Jones, Needham, and Trill Williams, Miami’s cornerback room is at its thinnest. Luckily, Kohou has burst onto the scene and been a real contributor throughout this preseason.

Kader Kohou is sticky in man coverage.

His ability to stick in man coverage has been impressive, and perfectly fits a scheme that runs a high percentage of press-man and blitz looks. This will come in handy for Miami’s early games, while they eagerly await the return of Byron Jones.

However, Miami hit on yet another defensive back, and it will be exciting to see how Kohou performs, along with the rest of the Miami Dolphins rookies in 2022.

The Definitive Requirements for Tua Tagovailoa to Succeed in 2022

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There may be no more heavily debated and disputed player in the NFL than Tua Tagovailoa. Dating back to his first starts in college, he’s been analyzed to a degree few NFL prospects have ever seen. Many were sold on his “it factor” after his infamous game winning touchdown against Georgia in the National Championship. However, just as many were skeptical, and doubted his ability to lead an NFL offense.

This lead to heavy debate on his potential draft position, which reached it’s pinnacle when he suffered a career threatening injury against Mississippi State. Many still saw him as a top five pick, while others had him out of the first round entirely.

The former, however, was the only opinion that mattered when Tua was selected number five overall in 2020 by the Miami Dolphins. The team searching for their first elite quarterback since Marino took one of their biggest risks to date.

However, the divisiveness of Tagovailoa has only continued to grow. He has shown flashes of the quarterback many believe him to be, but has had just as many head-scratching moments. These have drawn out extreme takes and biases on both sides. Nonetheless, somewhere in the middle lies a quarterback with definitive strengths and weaknesses. It is with these that we can form the foundation of what can be built upon and what needs to be fixed in the most important year of the young quarterback’s career.

By many accounts, the most important quarterback traits are as follows: arm talent (strength and accuracy), anticipation, processing, pocket presence, and footwork. My goal is to evaluate where Tua Tagovailoa lies on each of these categories, and discover an attainable goal where I, and hopefully the rest of Dolphins media and fandom, can consider this season a success.

Arm Talent

Coming into the NFL, Tua’s strengths and weaknesses as far as arm strength and accuracy were well documented. Coming from the RPO-heavy Steve Sarkisian system, it was clear that he possessed elite short area accuracy and ball placement.

It was also clear that he wasn’t a premier deep ball thrower. While he could hit the open shot once in a while, he wasn’t going to hit the cover-2 hole shots at a rate similar to 2020 draft counterpart Justin Herbert. It wasn’t necessarily an issue, but a clear niche in which his game found itself.

However, the intermediate area is where the debate began. Despite Tagovailoa’s historically high efficiency numbers, there were serious questions about how inflated they were from a primarily one-read scheme. If Tua would have to read more of the field, would his accuracy take a major dip?

When combined with below average true accuracy between the 10 and 19 yard line, the results we would see in the NFL became telling.

Tua Tagovailoa has struggled immensely in the intermediate passing game since arriving in the NFL. Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Tua’s passer rating on passes between 10 and 20 yards to the middle and right thirds of the field is significantly below average. However, when targeting the left third, his 118.5 rating dominates the league average of 89.2.

Tua Tagovailoa’s grid, per NFL’s NextGenStats.

This shows a clear area in which he needs to improve. Luckily, there is a visible path to doing so in the Mike McDaniel offense. McDaniel, along with his run-game prowess, has shown the abilty to draw up deadly play action looks. Specifically, boot concepts in which San Francisco’s playmakers would attack the intermediate zones.

The result: Jimmy Garoppolo was above league average in each of the intermediate thirds. It’s clear that Tua can do the same. He has the talent to do so, and it is crucial that he takes advantage of those opportunities when they arise.

Jimmy Garoppolo was above average to elite in the middle thirds of the field.

The goal: attain an above average passer rating in ALL THREE intermediate thirds of the field.

Anticipation and Processing

RPO-based systems are among the hardest to evaluate, due to the fact that so much comes off of one read. Typically, this would stray away talent evaluators, who haven’t seen the quarterback operate in a more complex scheme, but the clip that Tua was able to connect on was generational, and gave many hope that he could do it on a larger scale.

This would be crucial. Given Tagovailoa’s size and physical tools, he would have to be able to compensate with an elite football mind. However, since arriving in the league, he’s yet to demonstrate it.

Far too often, Tua stares down his first read, telegraphing where the ball is going, and allowing DB’s to make a play. Furthermore, when he gets to his second and third reads, he’s either too late or doesn’t trust what he sees. This oftentimes leads to sacks or turnovers.

Tua stares down a receiver and his arm doesn’t make up for the mistake.

It’s difficult to determine how Tua can get rid of these bad habits, and thus the “slow blinker” asterisk. Although, we can also understand that Tagovailoa has significantly better offensive coaching than he has seen to this point. McDaniel, offensive coordinator Frank Smith and new quarterbacks coach Darrell Bevell all have a reputaition around the league as bright offensive minds. It’s likely that they can draw up plays to help cover this up.

However, Tagovailoa can’t be complacent, and must see things quicker. Whether it’s mental reps, more studying of the playbook, or simply just more live action, he must improve, and with the recent training camp clip that has surfaced, it appears that he has.

This clip shows Tua hitting Tyreek Hill in stride for a one handed catch and a touchdown. However, the catch isn’t the surprising part. When Tagovailoa releases the ball, Hill is still covered, and hasn’t found the soft spot in the coverage. Despite this, Tua showed more faith in his eyes, and put it in the perfect spot for his receiver to catch it. This is exactly what we are going to need to see more of, and it’s promising that it’s showing in camp.

Tua Tagovailoa puts this ball on the money in camp.

The more film study, time with receivers, or mental reps Tua runs himself through, the more benefits he will reap. His mentality towards the game must improve. Thus, his play on the field will be a strong indicator of if it has.

The goal: know the situation like the back of your hand.

Pocket Presence

If there is one trait that has been an overwhelming positive in Tua Tagovailoa’s game since being drafted, it’s his ability to sense and evade edge pressure. Miami’s offensive line has been frustrating, to say the least, but Tua has largely been able to subdue those struggles with great pocket movement.

Tua evades edge pressure, steps up, and makes a strong throw.

Much of what makes Tua potentially great is how he is able to maneuver edge pressure. It is when that pressure comes up the middle, however, that we begin to see the common problem that becomes his biggest flaw.

Footwork

Robotic: a term often thought of in a negative connotation, but is one of the most common positive descriptors of Tua’s game. In clean pockets, his mechanics are as consistent as they come. His feet follow his eyes, and often lead to smart, quick decisions. However, it is when defenses send pressure through the A and B gaps that his footwork sees a significant drop off.

This is a common issue among young quarterbacks. It’s hard for any human being to maintain strong footwork with 300 pound men being pushed into their knees. However, many of those quarterbacks don’t take the brunt of the blow to their arm strength in the way Tua does.

Due to the arm strength concerns mentioned earlier, Tua needs his feet to be in line with his throws. He doesn’t have the arm of a Mahomes or Josh Allen, who can make off platform plays with ease. However, he creates several by fading on throws with A-gap pressure, which often lead to poor results.

Tua fades on a throw, and thus it’s incomplete.

This will be the hardest habit to break, and has been something few are able to achieve. However, it may be the most crucial to Tua’s success. While Miami worked on their offensive line this off-season, it still isn’t perfect. There will be plays where teams are able to get into his lap, but he can’t crumble. He has to be able to sit in and make a strong throw, or get out of the pocket, as he has successfully done in the past.

Tua Tagovailoa evades the interior pressure and makes a solid throw.

Tua has shown development in this area, but if he is to become a successful quarterback, it must become a strength, rather than his biggest weakness.

The goal: sustain success at the sight of interior pressure.

The Bottom Line on Tua Tagovailoa in 2022

The most divisive quarterback in the league is going into the deciding year of his career. Stories like this are what the NFL is made of, and while many believe Tua’s fate is set in stone, it’s far from the truth.

There are attainable goals, some more difficult than others, that in my eyes, can correlate to a successful 2022 season. If Miami’s quarterback is able to improve in the key areas I outlined the questions will begin to fade. The noise of bringing in his replacement will become a calming silence, and most importantly, the Miami Dolphins will reach heights unseen in decades.

This is it. This year we will see what the heralded franchise savior is made of. The mountain is steep, but the journey of climbing it will be all so satisfying if Tua Tagovailoa reaches it’s summit.