Tag Archives: Betting

Best NFL Bets for Week 3

It’s that time of the week, once again, for some more NFL bets! Last week, we started off strong, hitting that Colts moneyline, and then the Packers were looking good, too, heading into the fourth quarter. Then, Green Bay blew their lead, leaving us hoping for the Saints to give us a winning record. Of course, they pushed. After going 1-1-1, we are now at 3-2-1 on the season for the NFL portion of our Best Bets series.

Hopefully, we can keep right the ship this week. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday afternoon. Also, be sure to catch me and my fellow ATB bettors’ locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for Week 3!

Photo Credit: USA Today

Bills at Commanders: Commanders +6.5 (-110)

Yes, Buffalo looked like a juggernaut last week, but that may have been more about Las Vegas’ struggles than anything else. The Bills are a good team, but they do have flaws. As we saw in Week 1, they have trouble stopping the run. Washington should be able to exploit that far more than the Raiders did.

As far as the Commanders go, they have not looked bad this year. They have played the dregs of the league, but 2-0 is 2-0. Sam Howell has not looked bad. The offense moves the ball well and the defense is at least respectable. Expect Washington to keep it close, take the points.

Patriots at Jets: Patriots -2.5 (-120)

It turns out that Zach Wilson and Jets are not as good as we thought they were after the season opener. They cannot protect their young quarterback, and he cannot get the ball out quick enough.

That is too much of a weakness for Bill Belichick to exploit. The Patriots have looked okay this year, despite the 0-2 start. This game seems like the perfect opportunity for their first win of the year. New England only having to win by a field goal makes this one too good to pass up, despite sub-par value.

Bears at Chiefs: Under 48 (-112)

This game is almost certainly going to be a blow out. The Chiefs are slowly finding their stride, while the Bears are a complete dumpster fire. Typically that would be a great over play, but there’s plenty of reason to take the under.

The Bears have been completely inept on offense. It is unlikely things improve against a talented, and aggressive, Kansas City defense. They will struggle to score more than 10 points this week. On the other side of the ball, don’t expect the Chiefs to run it up. They don’t have the receivers to blow teams’ doors off. Also, they are beginning to control the ball more with the run. They might break 30, but getting over 35 would be a stretch. The under should hit pretty comfortably.

Week 3 NFL Best Bets Recap

  • Commanders +6.5 (-110)
  • Patriots -2.5 (-120)
  • Bears @ Chiefs: Under 48 (-112)
  • Parlay odds: +562

Best College Football Bets for Week 4

Welcome back for some more college football betting picks and our best bets for Week 4. Last week, we went 1-2 once again. That takes us to 3-6 on the year. At least we’re consistent! In all seriousness, it may be time to start fading these picks and betting the opposite. Do what you have to do.

We finally have an awesome college football slate to bet this week, as most of the country is playing conference games this week. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Thursday evening. Also, be sure to catch me and my fellow ATB bettors’ locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book (those picks are actually hitting). Let’s get started and dive in!

#22 UCLA at #11 Utah: Under 52.5 (-110)

Picking a Chip Kelly team to go under feels wrong, but it is not as crazy as you might think. Surprisingly, the under has it in each of UCLA’s last two games. It also helps that Utah has not hit an over all year.

Photo Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

There is reason to believe that could change with the return of quarterback Cam Rising. However, that could be a blessing in disguise for under bettors. Rising will certainly be rusty. Also, the Utes will likely be looking to ease him back into things with a run-heavy game plan. That makes even more sense when you consider their opponent thrives on offensive volume.

With Utah taking the air out of the ball on one side, and playing great defense on the other, UCLA is going to struggle to drag the total over 52.5. I love the under in this one.

Louisiana Tech at Nebraska: Louisiana Tech +20.5 (-108)

This pick is mostly predicated upon the fact that Nebraska might struggle just to score more than 20 points. So far this season they are actually averaging fewer than 20 points per game, and they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of defenses either. The Huskers have faced Minnesota (34th in FBS), Colorado (103rd), and Northern Illinois (78th).

For what it’s worth, Louisiana Tech is ranked 98th in scoring defense, but at least their offense can keep pace. The Bulldogs are averaging over 30 points a game. As long as they can get to 14 this week, they should be able to hold Nebraska under 35. This is one of those situations where the math outweighs the discrepancy in talent. Take the points.

#3 Texas at Baylor: Texas -14.5 (-110)

Texas might actually be back. The jury is still out until we figure out just how bad Alabama is, but it sure seems like the Longhorns are a legit top five team, at least. Baylor, on the other hand, is perhaps the biggest enigma in college football right now. The Bears started off losing to group of five Texas State, then gave #11 Utah a nail-biter, only to follow it up by letting Long Island, a mediocre at best FCS team, hang around into the fourth quarter.

If the pattern continues, Baylor should make a game out of this one. Regardless, they will struggle to stay within 20 against a Texas team that is rolling. The thing to really like about this pick is that it is a night game. It just feels like one of those games that stays close for a half, but then the favorite begins to impose its will and runs away in the fourth quarter. I love the vibes here, lay the points with the Longhorns.

Week 4 College Football Best Bets Recap

  • UCLA @ UTAH UNDER 52.5 (-110)
  • Louisiana Tech +20.5 (-108)
  • Texas -14.5 (-110)
  • Parlay odds: +601

Best NFL Bets for Week 2

We are back with three more great bets for this week’s NFL slate. We got off to a great start in week one, going 2-1 including two underdog money lines! Hopefully, we can keep that going this week. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday afternoon. Also, be sure to catch me and my fellow ATB bettors’ locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for week 2!

Photo Credit: AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

Packers at Falcons: Packers Money Line (+102)

This line is shocking considering how good Green Bay looked in their opener against the Bears. To be fair, the Falcons also had a strong showing last week against the Panthers. That, plus being at home, must be why they are favored slightly.

Nevertheless this seems like a great opportunity. Green Bay looked better last week and they played arguably better competition. The fact that we get plus odds for a team who probably should be favored makes this one too good to pass on. Take the Packers straight up.

Colts at Texans: Colts Money Line (+102)

This another situation where we can get plus odds for a team who should probably be favored. In fact, Indy actually was a slight favorite a few days ago. That is probably where they should have stayed. However, this matchup is a little tighter than the one mentioned above.

In this case, you have two teams who are both rebuilding with rookie quarterbacks. The difference is that the Colts still have a lot of talent and are in more of a “retooling” phase, whereas the Texans are basically in a full reset. Nevertheless, this is close to a coin-flip game, especially with it being in Houston.

If the line were reversed, the Texans would be a tempting money line pick. With things being the way they are now, the Colts are an easy pick.

Saints at Panthers: Saints -3 (-110)

Derek Carr gets his first prime time spot with his new team on Monday night. He has actually played pretty well on Monday Night Football, and boasts a winning record in those games. The Saints should have no problem laying three points against a rebuilding Panthers team. However, there is some cause for concern.

New Orleans did not look all that great in their win over Tennessee last week. They failed to cover the three point spread in that one, although that was mostly due to some questionable decision-making by Titans coach Mike Vrabel. Also, while the Titans may not be great, they looked much better than the Panthers last week. Carolina was soundly beaten 24-10 by Atlanta.

Carr and the Saints may not need much more than 20 to cover, and they should have no problem doing so this week.

Week 2 NFL Best Bets Recap

  • Green Bay Packers ML (+102)
  • Indianapolis Colts ML (+102)
  • New Orleans Saints -3 (-110)
  • Parlay odds: +678

Best College Football Bets for Week 3

Things did not get any better for us in week two of the college football season. Thanks in large part to a brutal result in the Utah game, we went 1-2 on the weekend, taking us to 2-4 on the year. The meat of the season, which is typically easier to read, cannot come soon enough.

In all honestly, this looking like a pretty boring weekend of college football. Luckily, we have some more bets this week to make it interesting. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Thursday evening. Also, be sure to catch me and my fellow ATB bettors’ locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book (those picks are actually hitting). Let’s get started and dive into the best bets in college football for Week 3!

Photo Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

#15 Kansas State at Missouri: Kansas State -4 (-110)

Let’s start off our look at the best bets in college football for Week 3 with a marquee matchup between two undefeated power five programs. This clash of titans could go either way.

Yeah… no. This is going to be lopsided.

Mizzou might actually be the worst undefeated team in all of FBS, or at the very least the Power Five. Their 2-0 record is comically misleading. The Tigers, at home for both games, beat South Dakota (an FCS program) and Middle Tennessee by a combined 19 points.

To be fair, Kansas State has not played anybody, either. However, they still looked like the defending Big 12 champs in both games. The Wildcats outscored Southeast Missouri (another FCS program) and Troy 87-13 combined.

This is essentially a matchup between a team with College Football Playoff aspirations, and a team that is going to struggle to make a bowl game this year. Yes, Missouri usually plays way above their heads once or twice year, but you never know when that will be. Even if they do, it still might not be enough to keep within a field goal. Hammer Kansas State to cover this generous spread.

South Carolina at #1 Georgia: Over 54.5 (-110)

This game seemed a lot more intriguing a few weeks ago. The Gamecocks appeared to be a team on the rise, and the there were worries that the Bulldogs could take a step back this year. So far, neither of those things appear to be true. South Carolina looks like an upper-middle of the pack SEC team once again, and Georgia looks poised for another CFP run.

This is a matchup between two teams who can put up a lot of points. Only one, Georgia, plays any defense. The points should be flying in this one. These teams average a combined 78.5 points per game this year. Even if Georgia limits South Carolina’s offense, the Bulldogs could probably hit the over themselves. The over is a lock in this one.

James Madison at Troy: JMU Money Line (+120)

This is one of those lines that feels like a clerical error. Just by looking at their resumes this season, you would think the Dukes would be favored. They just beat a power five team while Troy got smoked by one the same weekend.

In all fairness, the Trojans played a much better team in Kansas State. Also, JMU could be in danger of a let down after beating Virginia. Finally, this game is at Troy. These are the factors that the bookies are likely considering.

Regardless, James Madison is a great pick here. This program has been on the rise. The former FCS powerhouse is coming off its first FBS season last year, in which the Dukes went a respectable 8-3 (yes, they only played 11 games). They are real threat to finish the year at the top of the Sun Belt, even if they technically aren’t allowed to compete in the conference championship game. Smash the JMU money line.

Week 3 College Football Best Bets Recap

  • Kansas State -4 (-110)
  • South Carolina @ Georgia OVER 54.5 (-110)
  • James Madison ML (+120)
  • Parlay odds: +701

Best NFL Bets For Week 1

The NFL is officially back and it is time to make some many. Similar to last year, we have three great bets for this Sunday’s action. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday afternoon. Also, be sure to catch me and my fellow ATB bettors’ locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for week 1!

Photo Credit Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Buccaneers at Vikings: Vikings -5.5 (-110)

The Bucs are going through it right now. After several years of being “all in” with Tom Brady, the cupboard is pretty much bare in the wake of his retirement. With Baker Mayfield at the helm, this team looks primed for a rebuild. On the other side, the Vikings look ready to make a run in a wide-open NFC title race. Kirk Cousins played great last year and he has two fantastic targets in Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson.

Expect Hockenson to be a major factor in this one. Tampa Bay really struggled to cover tight ends last year. The Vikings defense is suspect, but the Bucs lack the offensive firepower to take advantage. This game might stay tight for a while, but Minnesota should have no problem winning by at least seven or eight.

Bengals at Browns: Browns Money Line (+110)

I love the Browns as a home ‘dog, pun intended. They really started to find their groove towards the end of last season. Deviant quarterback Deshaun Watson should be much more comfortable after having a full off-season as the team’s official starter. The Bengals, on the other hand, could start a little slow, as their quarterback, Joe Burrow, did not have a full training camp due to injury.

Even with the slow start, the Bengals still have a lot of talent. That makes this divisional game more of a toss-up. In that case, go with the team getting plus odds at home. Take the money line here at a solid value.

Packers at Bears: Packers Money Line (+105)

This matchup will look far different from most of the recent meetings of this classic rivalry. The reason for that is the absence of Aaron Rodgers. His presence has helped Green Bay win the last eight meetings. With Jordan Love taking over, we have to wonder if Justin Fields and the Bears can turn the tide in this series. Vegas seems to agree as they are favoring Chicago, albeit slightly.

Don’t be fooled by the spread though. Chicago being a one point favorite at home is actually a bit damning. Typically, the rule of thumb for handicapping games is that the home team gets three points. This line signals that Vegas still feels like Green Bay is the better team, and they should. While Love may be an unknown commodity, we do know that the Packers have a lot more talent everywhere else on their roster than Chicago. This is especially true in the trenches.

Expect Green Bay to grind out a low scoring victory with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Take the generous plus odds.

Week 1 NFL Best Bets Recap

  • Minnesota Vikings -5.5 (-110)
  • Cleveland Browns ML (+110)
  • Green Bay Packers ML (+105)
  • Parlay odds: +721