Best College Football Bets for Week 13 (Part 1)

Photo Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

College football’s rivalry week is finally here! Despite a tough go of it last week, we are still 9-6 for the month of November, so we’ve got a chance here to finish it out above 60% over four weeks. Since we have two days worth of games this weekend, we have three bonus great bets for this today’s college football Week 13 matchups, with picks for Saturday’s games coming soon. All lines come via Draft Kings as of this morning.

Arkansas at Missouri: Missouri Moneyline (+145)

I love this upset as one of the best bets in college football for Week 13. Mizzou honestly shocked me last week when they covered 29 against New Mexico State. The Tigers are now in a situation where a win would make them bowl eligible. They have a great opportunity to do so against a suspect Arkansas team.

The Razorbacks just clinched bowl eligibility last week with a huge upset over Ole Miss. They are primed for a big letdown game. You have a hungry team at home hosting a squad that is likely hungover from the previous week. Hammer Mizzou this week.

Nebraska at Iowa: UNDER 38.5 (-110)

In the month of November, neither of these teams has played a game with a total of more than 37 points. This is just plain and simple. These are two teams that don’t score much. Even in a rivalry game, I don’t expect a lot of fireworks. Don’t overthink this, just bet on two low-scoring teams to not score much.

#18 UCLA at California: UCLA -11 (110)

After a tough loss to USC last week, and an even tougher loss to Arizona the week before, the Bruins are in desperate need of a “get right” game. Playing an in-state rival who is having a pretty terrible year should fit the bill. UCLA needs to show everyone that they are actually good before bowl selection. Beating up on Cal would be a good way to do that.

Something to remember here is that UCLA coach Chip Kelly has a propensity for running up the score. Most of their wins this season have been by double digits. Cal’s Super Bowl was beating Stanford last week. Expect the Golden Bears to get stomped into the off-season.

Best College Football Bets For Week 8

Syracuse football leads the way in the best bets for week 8 of college football
Photo Credit: Dennis Nett | dnett@syracuse.com

We’re back with some more college football bets for this week, week 8. Last week’s picks were an Oklahoma State choke job away from going five-for-five. Another week, another opportunity to chase perfection and that big parlay payout. Here are five great bets for this weekend of college football. All lines are via Draft Kings as of Friday morning.

#14 Syracuse at #5 Clemson: Syracuse +13.5 (-110)

We kick off our look at the best college football bets for week 8 with a line that makes zero sense. The Orange are a legit contender in the ACC. Clemson is still the top dog, but they are a lot closer to the rest of the pack. Syracuse just beat North Carolina State by 15. The Tigers only beat them by 10 a few weeks ago, and just got a scare from Florida State.

Syracuse has put the clamps on two good quarterbacks in Drew Leary of the Wolfpack, and Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell. Both are far better than Clemson’s DJ Uiagalelei. The only thing that would keep this from being close is if Will Shipley just takes the game over on the ground. Even then, it is hard to see the game getting that lopsided.

I would sooner take Syracuse moneyline than I would the Tigers to cover. Just take the points.

#7 Ole Miss at LSU: Ole Miss Moneyline (+115)

A top 10 team being an underdog against an unranked opponent is bait, plain and simple. I’ll take it though. the Rebels are rolling this year. Is LSU good? Does anyone know for sure at this point? Ole Miss is beginning its SEC West stretch run, and it will be a struggle to come out unscathed, but this is not the time.

The Tigers have looked like a mediocre team far too often this year. Look at their results against Florida State, Auburn, and Tennessee. Those games outweigh impressive wins over Mississippi State and Florida. If this were a night game in Death Valley, I’d be more inclined to believe that LSU could pull off the upset. Instead, it’s at 3:30.

Take Ole Miss outright. Don’t bother with the two points they are getting.

Purdue at Wisconsin: Purdue Moneyline (+110)

Too many blue bloods are getting the benefit of the doubt this year against teams that are not typically good. This is another example. As mentioned earlier, Syracuse is a tough team. Purdue almost beat them in the Carrier Dome. The week before that, Wisconsin lost to Washington State.

The Boilermakers are having one of their best seasons in years. The Badgers are rebuilding. The oddsmakers are having trouble accepting that, and they are giving Purdue 2.5 points. You don’t need them. Take the moneyline.

Pitt at Louisville: Pitt Moneyline (+115)

Has Pitt lived up to all of the preseason hype? No, but the Panthers are still a good team. They played Tennessee to a one score game, and the Volunteers are a serious threat to win it all. That excuses their hiccup against Georgia Tech. This is still a solid team.

Louisville is a below-average team at best. Malik Cunningham being back from injury should help, but it’s unlikely to be enough. On top of the return of their star quarterback, the Cardinals are also hosting this primetime affair.

These factors could push this matchup closer to toss-up territory. Even then, I still like the value on Pitt at +115.

Kansas at Baylor: Kansas +9.5 (+100)

Kansas is getting a lot of points for a game that, on paper at least, looks like a toss-up. The primary reason for this is obviously the health concerns over quarterback Jalon Daniels. However, Daniels did show some positive signs by practicing on Wednesday, albeit in a limited capacity. If — and that’s a big if — he can play, Kansas would vault to being a possible favorite in this game.

Even without him, backup Jason Bean has been good enough to keep this one close. Baylor has been up and down this year (mostly down), so it’s not like the Jayhawks are facing some sort of juggernaut.

Watch the Daniels situation closely. If he winds up playing, you should pounce on the moneyline (+290) immediately. On the other hand, pay attention to the spread if he is officially ruled out. That could prompt the oddsmakers to give Kansas a few extra points, or at least boost the odds on that +9.5 line.

For now, just take the points as they are. It is already great value, don’t risk losing it. You can always make another bet, but you can’t bet odds that no longer exist.

Week 9 NFL Bets

nfl bets week 9
Credit: Getty Images

Here are some week 9 NFL bets and after this week, we will have officially hit the halfway point of the year.

We are coming off the week of “the backups” where Mike White, Trevor Siemian, and Cooper Rush all picked up wins.

Week 8 was certainly weird but no need to overreact; context is important and we need to look at the entire picture.

Parity is an all-time high – four teams in the AFC have two losses while another four teams in the NFC only have one loss.

Week 9 is one of the more balanced and even slates. There are only two double digit point spreads and plenty of games within a field goal.

Let’s jump into it:

NFL Week 9 Best Bets

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Rams -6.5 Titans

I got this line on Monday when the news about Derrick Henry surfaced. The line has since moved to -7.5, which is an ugly number but I still feel decent the Rams cover here.

It’ll the first game where Von Miller plays for his new team – the Rams may just be the Super Bowl favorite and for good reason.

GM Les Snead has constructed the team in a way to pass the ball efficiently on offense while stopping the pass effectively on defense – a blueprint for team building in 2021.

Without Henry at the forefront, the Titans lackluster defense will be on the field for longer stretches against this high octane group.

Ryan Tannehill has proven to be competent but I’m not sure he’s ready for life after Henry. He’s grown to be dependent on play-action. AJ Brown is a bright spot for Tennessee’s perimeter but it’s nothing Jalen Ramsey can’t handle.

Rams should roll here.

Panthers-Patriots Under 43

This is another line that’s moved all the way down to 41.

News on Saturday made it official that Sam Darnold would get the nod after going through concussion protocol while Christian McCaffrey will make his return from the IR.

Darnold’s had a tale of two seasons – he started out 3-0 and the Panthers looked the part of an NFC contender. Since then they’ve gone 1-4. Over that span, Darnold is 27th in EPA (expected points added) per play and 31st in CPOE (completion % over expectation).

Up next? Darnold gets to go up against Bill Belichick – the same man who he saw ghosts against:

Darnold is 0-3 in his career against Belichick with a 49.3 completion % and 42.0 QB rating. Having CMC back should help, but coming off a soft tissue injury, I expect him to be pretty limited here.

On the other side, the Patriots offense has been coming along as of late. But this Panthers defense has been borderline elite. With Brian Burns and Haason Reddick leading the charge up front coupled with Stephon Gilmore getting his revenge game, the Panthers defense should be able to keep this one close.

AJ Dillon Over 35.5 rushing yards

Dillon has slowly gotten more work as the season’s gone along.

I expect this trend to continue – without Aaron Rodgers, expect Matt LaFleur to get more conservative and lean on his big bruiser, Dillon.

This is a guy who’s run for over 59 yards in three of his last five. Give me Dillon to smash this against KC’s porous run defense.

Mark Ingram Over 28.5 rushing yards

New Orleans newest addition should see an uptick in snap share.

In his Saints debut, he saw 29% of the snaps while logging 27 rushing yards against one of the best run defenses we’ve ever seen in Tampa Bay. Sean Payton knows he needs to keep his prized possession, Alvin Kamara, healthy – Ingram should see more action here.

Atlanta’s run defense has the appearance of a stingy run defense but if you look closer, they’ve gotten away with playing weaker offensive lines. When they’ve played elite run blocking OLs like Philadelphia and Tampa Bay, they’ve been handled.

With Siemian getting the start, expect Payton to lean on his ground game even more than usual. New Orleans still has an elite unit in the trenches and there’s potential for a positive game script here.

Jordan Love Over 8.5 rushing yards

Another Packers rushing prop here – with Chris Jones back in the iDL and Frank Clark improving at the EDGE, Love could be pressured a decent amount. And with pressure comes scrambles.

In Love’s first career start, there is potential for a negative script with plenty of passing in the second half. Expect a lot of 2nd and 3rd and longs where Love will resort to his legs. He isn’t a superior athlete but he definitely isn’t a statue either. Having run in the 4.7s, he’s a sneaky good athlete who should be able to clear this number with ease.

Tyler Conklin Over 32.5 receiving yards

I love Conklin in this spot. This is a really nice matchup against Baltimore.

The Ravens have always been a blitz-heavy team under DC Wink Martindale.

In 2021, they’ve allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends including monster games from CJ Uzomah, Mo Alie-Cox and Noah Fant. Expect Conklin to be a nice outlet to Kirk Cousins on certain plays today.

The Vikings have been a primarily 11 personnel team with Conklin logging 78% of the offensive snaps. The Vikings are one of the more balanced teams in football and do a great job setting up big plays down the field with their play action pass attack.

This may just take one big play. Hammer Conklin with this number here.

Be sure to subscribe to our podcast, The Betting Edge, on your platform of choice. New episodes every Wednesday and Friday.

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2021 NFL Draft Prop Bets to Watch

The 2021 NFL Draft is finally here and couldn’t have come any quicker. It seems there has been much more conversations and anticipation surrounding this year’s draft; possibly because of how talented this quarterback class is, but most likely because we have all been trapped inside for the last year and just want our voices to be heard.

Due to the fact that we have been going through a pandemic, it has made the evaluating process and the draft in general even more of a coin-toss that it has been in years past. Teams have struggled to get medical information on players and character concerns on some guys are being revealed even later in the process. It will certainly lead to a very eventful and exciting draft (for some fans).

With that being said, of course we’re going to bet on the draft, even with all the unknowns. When looking at prop bets for the NFL draft, you’re really looking at where you can find value. You won’t find a ton of odds that sit close together like you would when betting on point spreads and over/unders on actual games. You’re more likely to find bigger and better odds (if you view it that way).

For those that aren’t heavy bettors, let’s try and break this down a bit. All odds are based on a $100 bet. For example, if the odds on a bet you would like to pursue are -110, that means you would have to bet $110 to win $100. If the odds are +130, a $100 dollar bet would win you $130.

Now that we’ve got the explanation out of the way let’s dig into the picks.

All betting odds are from mybookie.ag.

Value Picks

Kyle Pitts Over Pick 5.5 +200

As eluded to earlier in the piece, we’re trying to find picks that we believe to have good value and the chances of winning plus-money.

The one team in the top 5 picks who is most likely to take Pitts would be Atlanta. With a new head coach and GM in the building it makes it tough to gauge exactly which direction they will go, however with three quarterbacks set to go in the top three picks this could 1) force a team to trade up with the Falcons to select one of the available quarterbacks left on the board or 2) Atlanta could even take one themselves.

After the Falcons, the Cincinnati Bengals hold the fifth pick in the draft and it’s believed by many, that Ja’Marr Chase will be the pick for the Bengals. If it’s not Chase it’s very plausible that Cincinnati could have their eyes on Penei Sewell. They have voiced their opinion that they’d like to keep Jonah Williams at left tackle, but smoke screens are not a new thing when it pertains to the draft.

As they say “never let a good player stop you from drafting a great player,” which Sewell is.

Trey Lance to be the Third Pick in the Draft +200

If you’ve been keeping up with the odds on this specific selection, you’d know they have been moving a ton. From each players (Justin Fields, Mac Jones, and Lance) pro-day their odds seem to get boosted and cause the others to fall, but now that the draft is right around the corner they have seemed to settle on the favorite, Mac Jones.

It’s tough to imagine a world where the 49ers give up two future first-round picks and swap their first round pick this year, for the guy with the lowest ceiling out of the top 5 quarterbacks. Jones, while he is talented in his own right, doesn’t present the same time of upside as his colleagues (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Fields, and Lance). He doesn’t posses the same time type of off-platform ability that the others do. He’s more of a pocket passer, which is fine, but not worth the third overall pick, especially when the 49ers sold the farm to do so.

Safeties Drafted in the First Round Under 1/2 +220

Every year it seems like at least one safety goes in the first round, but this year may change that cycle. There are two guys that come to mind as potential first round selections and that’s Richie Grant and Trevon Moehrig. Both players have their limitations which could cause them to fall out of the first round.

When looking at the back half of the first round, there is really only one team that pops out as a potential match for one of these safeties and that’s the Baltimore Ravens sitting there with two first round picks (27 and 31). On the flip side, the Ravens have more often than not, drafted who they believe to be the best player on the board in their eyes and it’s tough to see one of Moehrig and Grant as the best player available.

On the other side of the coin, they do have needs at other positions such as receiver and offensive tackle. Baltimore needs more options on the outside for Lamar Jackson, Willie Snead and Marquise Brown just aren’t cutting it and with another loaded receiver class it’s extremely plausible they look that direction early. The offensive tackle class also works in their favor, it too boasts a ton of talent. A player like Alex Leatherwood falling to them at 27 or 31 certainly fits what the Ravens like to do on offense and could be one of their picks if he happens to fall into their lap.

Also, the Ravens could be in prime position for a team looking to trade back-up into the first round to get the fifth-year option on a player.

More Likely to Happen” Picks

Green Bay Packers First Player Drafted – Defense +100

With some of the value picks out of the way, let’s get into some of the picks that seem more likely to happen. Being that these options are more reasonable you won’t get as good of odds.

The Packers are always a tough team to gauge when it comes to the NFL Draft, but with their first three picks coming on the offensive side of the ball in last year’s draft, they may be looking to boost up their defense. Aaron Rodgers is able to help mitigate some of the issues that Green Bay has on offense because of his talent and even though many Packer’s fans want them to go receiver, there may not be great value when they are up to pick at 29. Also, Green Bay hasn’t selected a receiver in the first round since 2002.

When looking at the defense, there are two positions that stand-out, defensive end and cornerback (we all know about Kevin King getting burned by Scottie Miller just before the half in the NFC Championship). Taking a look at some of the players that could be available here for the Packers, there are three names that really stick-out, Carlos Basham (defensive end), Eric Stokes (corner), and Tyson Campbell (corner).

Big-10 Players Drafted in the First Round Over 6.5 +100

Aside from the SEC, the Big-10 is probably the most competitive and talent loaded Power-5 conference in college football. This year is no different.

There are 6 players (Justin Fields, Rashawn Slater, Micah Parsons, Rashod Bateman, Greg Newsome, and Kwity Paye) who have a very high chance to be selected in the first 32 picks. You may be asking yourself, but the over is 6.5, yes it is. The seventh player who has the best chance to selected in the first round is Jayson Oweh. If you follow college football and the draft, you may have heard of Oweh. For those of you that don’t, just know this man was built in a lab somewhere. His pro-day may go down as one of the best pro-days we’ve ever seen.

The edge rusher class this year is very weak at the top, once you get into the 30-75 range is when you start to see the edge rushers on most people’s big boards and a guy with Oweh’s upside could certainly get pushed above those guys if teams value traits, and many of them do. Not only that, but there are some medical concerns with both Azeez Ojulari and Jaelan Phillips which could cause them to fall and Oweh to rise.

Two other dark horse names that could help this prop to cash are Baron Browning and Rondale Moore, two more guys with high-level traits.

First Cornerback to be Drafted – Jaycee Horn +150

This really comes down to two players, Horn and Patrick Surtain. With that said, this prop presents pretty good value, especially at plus-money. When looking around a people’s boards you’ll often see either Horn or Surtain as the top corner, and for good reason; they not only have the tape to back it up, but the traits as well.

What separates Horn from Surtain, however is that Horn has the mentality that NFL teams love to see. He isn’t afraid to get in a guys face and make his presence felt. It doesn’t matter how big or small you are, if you’re lined up across from Horn, you’ll be in for a long day; he’s going to dog you at the line-of-scrimmage.

Also another tidbit, on the Journey to the Draft podcast (hosted by Fran Duffy), Dane Brugler, a scout for the Athletic had this to say about the Dallas Cowboys, (the team most likely to draft the first corner) if it’s up to the coaches, the pick is Horn, and if it’s up to the scouts, the pick is Surtain. While that doesn’t provide a ton of clarity, it shows the value on this prop. Horn has a very good chance to be the first corner off the board and at plus-money this pick is no-brainer.