As we all know, the Green Bay Packers are a team that builds through the NFL draft. Since Brian Gutekunst has taken over as GM, he has sprinkled in some free agent signings, but the Packers cap situation isn’t great next season. There is space, just not a lot. So, let’s take a look at some potential openings within the current Packers starters that could be filled by prospects from the 2024 NFL draft. We will just list players projected to be early round picks.
Let’s start with the offense, and as always, don’t forget to check out my other writings and my database, which is updated daily.
Potential New Packers Starters from the 2024 NFL Draft: Offense
Center:
Josh Myers has struggled for the third season in a row. Unless he turns it around this season, he will probably be replaced in the offseason. Matt LaFleur could move Zach Tom there, but seems reluctant to. They could try Myers out at guard, but that’s for another discussion.
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Sedrick Van Pran – Georgia
Matthew Lee – Miami
Sincere Haynesworth – Tulane
Beaux Limmer – Arkansas
Graham Barton – Duke
Right Guard:
Jon Runyan Jr. is probably on his way out. He didn’t play great last year, and he has been worse this season. He’s a free agent and I don’t expect them to re-sign him. They could give Sean Rhyan a shot, but they have yet to do that.
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Cooper Beebe – Kansas State
Christian Haynes – UConn
Doug Nester – West Virginia
Tate Ratledge – Georgia
Donovan Jackson – Ohio State
Left Tackle:
David Bakhtiari’s cap hit for 2024 is way too high, especially for a guy who will be over 30, with four surgeries to the same knee since 2020. His knee won’t hold up, and there is no point in keeping him on a rebuilding roster. Rasheed Walker has been okay, but not good enough for the Packers to not turn to the 2024 NFL draft for a starter.
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Olumuyiwa Fashanu – Penn State
Joe Alt – Notre Dame
Patrick Paul – Houston
Kingsley Suamatala – BYU
Tyler Guyton – Oklahoma
Jordan Morgan – Arizona
Delmar Glaze – Maryland
Running Back:
There is a very real possibility that AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones are both gone this offseason. Dillion because he’s not a good fit for the offense — and his streaky play — and Jones because of his contract, injury history, and age. Emmanuel Wilson is obviously not the answer, but who is?
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Trey Benson – Florida State
Rasheen Ali – Marshall
Audric Estime – Notre Dame
Devin Neal – Kansas
MarShawn Lloyd – USC
Jonathon Brooks – Texas
Potential New Packers Starters from the 2024 NFL Draft: Defense
Linebacker:
De’Vondre Campbell is in a similar situation to Aaron Jones; Age, injury, and contract status could have the Packers moving on from him in the offseason. Quay Walker seems to have taken a step in 2023. None of the other linebackers on the roster are talented enough to be full-time starters.
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Curtis Jacobs – Penn State
Marlowe Wax – Syracuse
Junior Colson – Michigan
Tyrice Knight – UTEP
Cedric Gray – UNC
Safety:
I don’t think much needs to be said here. We all know about the Packers issues at safety. They have just two safeties under contract for 2024. They will probably need two new starters.
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Welcome back to part two of our look ahead at the Packers 2024 NFL draft. If you missed the first part of this series looking at the offensive players, check it out here! Today, it’s time to look at the players on defense the Packers may look at in the 2024 NFL draft.
This list will include players eligible for the 2024 NFL draft that fit those typical Packers thresholds. With this season being such a mystery, the list will be longer than usual; although, like my previous part, I will not be including players like Jared Verse or Kool-Aid McKinstry, because I don’t see any possibility of Green Bay drafting them. The players are also in no particular order.
Defensive line:
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With the four defensive linemen the Packers have drafted recently, I don’t think they draft one early, but you never know.
Ruke Orhorhoro – Clemson
Keith Randolph Jr. – Illinois
Tyleik Williams – Ohio State
Leonard Taylor – Miami
DeWayne Carter – Duke
Brandon Dorlus – Oregon
Darrell Jackson Jr. – FSU
Kris Jenkins – Michigan
Ty Hamilton – Ohio State
Maason Smith – LSU
J.J. Pegues – Ole Miss
Justin Eboigbe – Alabama
Alfred Collins – Texas
Jordan Kelley – Oklahoma
Patrick Jenkins – Tulane
John Tuitupou – Hawaii
Edge Rusher:
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This is another position that the Packers have invested in heavily recently. I don’t see them drafting one early, but they might take one later for depth.
J.T. Tuimoloau – Ohio State
Laiatu Latu – UCLA
Bralen Trice – Washington
Jack Sawyer – Ohio State
Trajan Jeffcoat – Arkansas
Rondell Bothroyd – Oklahoma
Jordan Burch – Oregon
Zion Tupuola-Fetui – Washington
Deontae Craig – Iowa
Cedric Johnson – Ole Miss
Isaac Ukwu – Ole Miss
RJ Oben – Duke
Ashton Gillotte – Louisville
Dayon Hayes – Pittsburgh
Jack Sullivan – USC
Van Fillinger – Utah
Abi Nwabuoku-Okonj – James Madison
Linebackers:
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Another position they have somewhat invested in lately. De’Vondre Campbell has a $14 million dollar cap hit in 2024 and he will be 31. They may still keep him, but I could see them moving on in 2025, which means they may be looking for his eventual successor.
Tommy Eichenberg – Ohio State
Curtis Jacobs – Penn State
Jestin Jacobs – Oregon
Junior Colson – Michigan
Jamon Dumas-Johnson – Geogia
Jackson Sirmon – Cal
Edefuan Ulofoshio – Washington
Geoff Cantin-Arku – Memphis
Travion Brown – ASU
Dallas Gant – Toledo
Marlowe Wax Jr. – Syracuse
Steele Chambers – Ohio State
Ben Bywater – BYU
Jamoi Hodge – TCU
Jack Kiser – Notre Dame
Nikhai Hill-Green – Charlotte
Easton Gibbs – Wyoming
Cornerbacks:
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This group could be interesting, depending on what happens with Eric Stokes and Rasul Douglas. Can Stokes get healthy and back to the way he played as a rookie? Do the Packers keep Douglas and his $11 million cap hit at 30 years old? Do they extend Keisean Nixon?
Fentrell Cypress II – Florida State
Shyheim Battle – NC State
T.J. Tampa – Iowa State
Cam Hart – Notre Dame
Duce Chestnut – LSU
Jahdae Barron – Texas
DJ James – Auburn
Jason Marshall Jr. – Florida
Denzel Burke – Ohio State
Trey Amos – Alabama
Deantre Prince – Ole Miss
AJ Woods – Pittsburgh
Max Melton – Rutgers
Decamerion Richardson – Mississippi State
Devin Kirkwood – UCLA
Alex Hogan – Houston
Quinyon Mitchell – Toledo
Marcus Banks – Mississippi State
Nicktroy Fortune – UTSA
Christian Roland-Wallace – USC
Storm Duck – Louisville
Noah Avinger – SDSU
Jakorey Hawkins – Wyoming
Micah Abraham – Marshall
Daquan Evans – USF
Safeties:
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This is obviously a major position of need. The only safety under contract for 2024 is Anthony Johnson Jr. and he was just a 7th round pick. While he looks like he has some potential upside, they still need to fill out the rest of the group — and will probably be replacing Darnell Savage. They will need at least one starter, if not two.
Kamren Kinchens – Miami
Andrew Mukuba – Clemson
Calen Bullock – USC
LaMiles Brooks – Georgia Tech
Rod Moore – Michigan
Tyler Nubin – Minnisota
Caelen Carson – Wake Forest
Patrick McMorris – Cal
Beau Brade – Maryland
MJ Griffin – Louisville
Kitan Oladapo – Oregon State
Seyi Oladipo – Boise State
Bud Clark – TCU
Dez Malone – San Diego State
Morice Norris – Fresno State
R.J. Mickens – Clemson
Cooper DeJean – Iowa
Kenny Logan – Kansas
DeShawn Gaddie Jr. – Ole Miss
Evan Williams – Oregon
Tra Fluellen – Middle Tennessee State
Jack Howell – Colorado State
Ayden Hector – Colorado State
As always, you can always view my database if you want a deeper dive on these and other NFL draft prospects.
Welcome back to part 2! In this article we will be decoding the “Packers way” in regards to defensive players. As I stated in one of my previous articles the Packers have a certain way of doing things with regards to the NFL draft and their thresholds for prospects. You can also check out part one on the offensive players. We will be laying out, in simple terms and data, how the Green Bay Packers approach drafting defensive players.
I previously wrote about this back in April of 2021. In that article, I based most of my findings off of Ted Thompson’s draft picks. Now that Brian Gutekunst has had two more drafts, we can more clearly see his trends. I will still refer back to Thompson sparingly since Gutekunst did learn under Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson; the architects of the “Packers Way”. Some of that is connected to RAS. We will break it down by position.
Defensive line:
Under Ted Thompson, defensive linemen averaged a RAS score of 7.29. With Gutekunst, it has been 7.77, and if you take out Jonathan Ford it jumps to a 8.83; so it can be said that Gutey prioritizes athletes along the defensive line more than Ted did. They have all been at least 6’2 and 290 or heavier, so while he is a good player, do not expect the Packers to draft a player like Calijah Kancey who is probably about 6’0 275.
Gutekunst also has only drafted guys with 32″ arms or longer. The bare minimum vertical was 29″, where oddly enough seven draft picks dating back to Thompson all had. 8’6″ seems to be the minimum with broad jump, but it seems Gutekunst and company like guys closer to 9’0.
In regards to 40-yard dash times, there have been two players with slow 40 times, Johnny Jolly and Jonathan Ford, with both running over 5.45. After them though, the next slowest is a 5.14; with a lot of them running under 5.1. Both players seem to be outliers.
So, look for defensive linemen who run in the 5.15 or faster range. The slowest short shuttle was a 4.89, but most draft picks ran under 4.8. The slowest 3-cone was a 7.91, but the majority have run 7.65 or faster.
Edge rusher:
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When it comes to edge rushers, the Packers haven’t changed the type they target. Historically, they like guys who score high athletically. Since Ted came aboard, they have averaged an 8.21 on the RAS scale, and with Gutekunst it has been 8.65. What has changed, though, is the body type.
With Dom Capers in town they tended to go after the smaller and more bendy type edge rushers. Since Mike Pettine was the defensive coordinator, the front office has liked to draft longer and stronger guys who tend to be more power players. The Packers have drafted guys in the 6’4+ range and weighting 260 or more. All four of his picks have also had 34″ or longer arms, 33″ might be ok, but I wouldn’t look at anyone shorter than that.
The lowest vertical jump was 36″, so look for anyone with a 35″+ vertical. 9’9″ is the shortest broad jump since Ted took over as GM. It looks like Gutey prefers guys with 10′ or longer jumps. As for 40 times, the Packers clearly do not prioritize that, as you have one guy with a 4.45 and another with a 4.87. The slowest short shuttle was a 4.54, but most have been 4.4 or faster. When it comes to the 3-cone drill the slowest has been a 7.51, but most are 7.3 or faster.
Linebacker:
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Gutkunst has drafted six linebackers in his time as GM. This is a position where he has taken a big departure from his predecessor . The average RAS under Thompson was a 5.98; under Gutekunst it has been a 9.06. So obviously a massive jump in required athleticism by the front office.
As for size, the minimum threshold is around 6’1, 230 pounds. The preference is probably about 6’3 240. Arm length has kind of been all over, with the shortest being 30 1/4″ and the longest 33 1/3″, but you could say 30 1/4″ is the minimum.
In regards to athletic testing, the lowest vertical jump was 32″. The shortest broad jump was 10’1″ — this seems to be a test the Packers prioritize with their linebackers. On to everyone’s favorite, 40 times. The slowest 40 time has been a 4.61, which makes this another prioritized test.
Short shuttle tests don’t seem to be as important, with the slowest being 4.46 and others in the 4.3 range. 3-cone drill, though, does seem to be something they key on, with the slowest being a 7.5 but the next slowest was a 7.25 and a lot of them being 7.1 or faster.
Defensive back:
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Now this is where the fun begins. There has been much hand wringing over the Packers thresholds at defensive back. The minimum height they will draft is 5’10 1/4″. It used to be 5’10 1/2″ under Wolf and Thompson, which they stuck to religiously. Gutekunst is a little more flexible, where he will make an exception if a player is worthy. Jaire Alexander is a great example, as he was 5’10 1/4 at the combine.
Size:
The Packers also like bigger corners, preferring guys who weigh in over 190. They also want guys with arms that are 31″ or longer. With safeties, they like guys who are “corner sized”: usually 5’11 or taller, 200 pounds plus, and 31″ arms or longer as well.
Testing:
Now to the testing, The average RAS score of the corners is an 8.33. With vertical jumps, the minimum is 35″. As for the safeties, Gutekunst has only drafted one in his time so I will include Thompson’s picks as well. The average RAS is a 7.51, but I’m betting once Gutey drafts more it will be more like 8.0 or higher. Vertical jump would be the same as with the corners. The lowest broad jump was 9’11”, all the rest are 10’3″ or more so I would start with at least 10′. It’s a similar situation at safety with the broad jumps.
On to the 40! The slowest 40-yard dash since Gutekunst took over is a 4.56, and I would say that is probably where their threshold is for the corners. With regards to the safeties, the slowest was a 4.62 under Ted Thompson, but all the others were 4.56 or faster; so the 4.56 would be a good starting point, as well.
For the agility testing, the slowest short-shuttle for a corner was a 4.36, there was also some 4.33, 4.34, so I would say 4.36 is the threshold. At safety the slowest was a 4.4, and, as stated earlier, its probably lower than that now with Gutey, so I would stick with the 4.36. On the 3-cone drill, the slowest was a 7.15, but most corners have tested lower than 7. Similarly with the safeties, the slowest was a 7.16, but most were 7.03 or faster, so I would start there.
Welcome back! In this article we will be decoding the “Packers way” and what that means. As I stated in my previous article the Packers have a certain way of doing things. Whether anyone thinks it’s right or wrong can be debated, and everyone is allowed to have their own opinion. That is not what this article is about. We will be laying out, in simple terms and data, how the Green Bay Packers approach drafting players.
I previously wrote about this back in April of 2021. In that article, I based most of my findings off of Ted Thompson’s draft picks. Now that Brian Gutekunst has had two more drafts, we can more clearly see his trends. I will still refer back to Thompson sparingly since Gutekunst did learn under Ron Wolf and Ted Thompson; the architects of the “Packers Way”. Some of that is connected to RAS. We will break it down by position.
Quarterback:
Here the thresholds haven’t changed from Wolf to Thompson to Gutekunst. They don’t care too much about a QBs RAS score. They like guys who have some athleticism, guys who can move around the pocket and not be a statue. Guys who can get a 1st down when needed. They like their QBs about 6’2 or taller and 215+
Running Backs:
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When it comes to running backs, the Packers do have a type. Of the three running backs Gutekust has drafted, they have RAS scores of: 8.15, 9.16, and 7.31. So that gives us the idea that they like their running backs to be good athletes. Even if you go back to Thompson they averaged an RAS score of 7.37.
The majority of the backs they have drafted have run a 4.55 or better, but the threshold seems to be 4.6. For explosive testing, look more at broad jumps. Under Gutekunst all three have jumped more than 10′, even going back to Thompson most jumped 9’11” or more.
Only one running back stands out as far as weight; AJ Dillion. The average weight of all the running backs drafted is 220. The threshold seems to be 205. Any backs under 200 should not be considered as well. Aaron Jones is also the shortest at 5’9 1/2 so anyone under 5’9 is probably off their board.
Wide Receiver:
Now this position is where there is the most hand wringing by fans over their thresholds. The Packers like bigger receivers with long arms. Gutekunst tried to make an exception with Amari Rodgers, and that didn’t work out. Outside of Rodgers, Gutey hasn’t drafted anyone with arms under 32 1/4″. If you go back to Ted it goes down to 31″. I would say 31″ is the bare minimum, but really hone in on guys with 32″ or longer.
While they have not said they have a minimum height, you have to think its 5’9, just due to the fact of how many 5’9 wide receivers weigh 190+? What Gutekust has shown is he likes his receivers taller. Toure was the shortest one he drafted, and he was a hair under 6’1. As to the weight issue, yes, the Packers do have a threshold. It has been confirmed by Gutey. He didn’t specify it, but looking at it historically you have to say its around 195.
Now to everyone’s favorite: RAS scores. Of the seven receivers drafted by Gutekunst, they have averaged a score of 8.19. If you go back to Thompson it is still a 7.9. For early-round receivers (1st-5th), look for guys that score 8.0 or better. As to 40-yard dashes, since Thompson they have only drafted two receivers who ran a 4.6, everyone else ran a 4.56 or faster. So unless someone has a high RAS, score I would eliminate anyone over 4.56.
The broad jump seems to be more important to them than the vertical. They have verticals from 30″all the way to 39 1/2″. Every receiver Gutey has drafted had a broad jump of at least 10′, so I would start there with any potential picks. 3-cone drill, though, is a big one for GB. Under Gutekust, their receivers have averaged a 6.84. Anyone running under 7 should meet their threshold. Any short shuttle around 4.25 or faster should be good.
Tight ends:
Now here is where things get interesting. The Packers are pretty loose on their thresholds at tight end. For example, the average RAS score of all the tight ends drafted since Ted is a meager 6.08. They do seem to have some size thresholds: 6’3 or taller and 245 or heavier. The Packers also like to draft guys who can contribute in the pass game and as a blocker, but its not a requirement.
Offensive Line:
When it comes to offensive line, the Packers very much have a type. Regardless as to what offensive scheme they have run the last 15 years; athleticism has always been a priority. Since Ted Thompson they have an average RAS score of 8.2, and under Gutey he has maintained it with an average of 8.16. The front office really values agility drills with their offensive linemen.
When it comes to players who will be playing primarily offensive tackle, the Packers tend to be even more specific. For example: arm length. Every player they have drafted who was slated to primarily play tackle has had 33 ¼” or longer. Also, none of them have been below 6’4. Any offensive tackle under those would be off their board, or they would see them more as a guard.
In regards to explosive testing, 25” seems to be the cut off for vertical. The lowest broad jump was 8’1”, so they don’t require highly explosive offensive linemen. The slowest 40 time we have is Jake Hanson with a 5.5, but the next one was a 5.33, under Gutekunst. That seems to be the cut off.
In regards to agility drills, the slowest short shuttle has been a 4.88 from Cole Madison. After that, it was a 4.81 from Sean Rhyan. The 4.88 seems like a little bit of an outlier, but let’s go with that for the baseline. Just be wary of anyone higher than a 4.8. The 3-cone drill, though, is a test the Packers value very highly. The slowest 3-cone has been a 7.91 from Royce Newman. Under Thompson, the slowest was an 8.01 by Jamon Meredith. So, there probably is a little bit of maneuvering you can do with that 7.91, but not much.
When it comes to interior guys, they like them with tackle experience. The Packers have only drafted three interior offensive linemen who did not have any tackle experience since Ted Thompson. They also have not drafted one under 6’3. The shortest arm length we have seen on interior guys has been 32”, so anyone with arms shorter than that, I would take off the board. The Packers also tend to be a little more forgiving on the testing with interior guys. Most of the slower times on the testing have been interior guys.
The offseason is here; we are all disappointed in the Packers performance. Changes will have to be made, like any other offseason. This article will explore what I would do with this offseason if I was Packers GM Brian Gutekunst?
There is a lot to do for him and the front office. There will be a lot of moving parts that affect one another. Beyond the usual free agency and NFL draft that has to be dealt with, there is of course the cap. At this point they are over by 5.36 million per OverTheCap. There is also the Aaron Rodgers ‘will he or wont he retire’ issue. That one will be the most important one that needs dealt with, and should be dealt with first. So, let’s get to it.
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What to do with Aaron Rodgers?
This is obviously a complicated situation. The Packers kind of married themselves to him last offseason with the contract extension they gave him. It does not make it easy for them to get out of. With his massive cap hit, there isn’t a lot of maneuvering to be done other than restructures — and the Packers have borrowed from the future three off-season’s in a row. Eventually you have to pay the man, so to speak.
As we all know, there is the old saying of about the definition of insanity… Well they would be doing this offseason what they did the previous three; and it has not worked out. What makes them think it magically will this time? I would rip off the band-aid. If he wants to come back, I would trade him after June 1. The Packers get a net gain of about one million in cap space in that scenario.
Packers Offseason Free Agents
Gutekunst has a number of free agents he will have to figure out what the Packers want to do with in the offseason — and not much cap space to work with. The unrestricted free agents are Allen Lazard, Eric Wilson, Justin Hollins, Rudy Ford, Keisean Nixon, Corey Ballentine and Dallin Leavitt.
I would attempt to re-sign Hollins to a 1-year 1.80 million deal with a 500k signing bonus. With Nixon, I would offer him a two-year, 2 million dollar deal with a 1 million dollar bonus. I would also offer Rudy Ford a vet minimum deal with a small signing bonus, but he probably gets more on the open market.
Adrian Amos, Randall Cobb, Dean Lowry, Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan, Jarran Reed, and Mason Crosby all have voids in their contracts. In this scenario, I let them walk and thank them for their service.
The Packers have just four restricted free agents in Yosh Nijman, Krys Barnes, Tyler Davis, and Jake Hanson. I would give Nijman the 2nd-round tender and Barnes that right of first refusal. I would let Hanson and Davis walk.
Cuts
Since we are ripping off band-aids here, we will be also cutting any vets who don’t fit in the long term with the roster. I will cut David Bahktiari, Preston Smith, Aaron Jones, Vernon Scott, Luke Tenuta, and Jonathan Garvin.
Where does that leave us?
All these moves leave the Packers with 8.4 million in cap space. That is not enough for the draft class, UDFAs, and in-season space. Per Ken Ingalls, the Packers will need about 11 million for their draft class, 3.45 for the practice squad, and about 5 million in season. Which means they need to create almost another 20 million in space.
Restructures
This obviously means restructures need to be made. It was going to have to be done regardless of what happens with Rodgers this offseason. With a simple restructure of Kenny Clark’s contract they can create $10.37 million in space, which gets us half way there.
Restructuring Jaire Alexander’s contract gets the Packers another $8.86 million which gets them to 19.23 million. Then we get a simple restructure of De’Vondre Campbell to get the Packers another 2.46 million. We are done. This would leave the Packers with almost $22 million in space so they could also sign a couple vet minimum guys. They could also redo Douglas’ deal and clear up another $1.5 million. The Packers could do that this offseason, but we don’t need to here.
Extentions?
Rashan Gary is an obvious first thought for a contract extension, but coming off the ACL I would want to see him play in-season just to make sure he gets back to his previous self. It might cost more in the long run, but its safer. AJ Dillon is another player you could think about extending, but I don’t think he has done enough to warrant one. Yet.
Where does this leave the Packers in 2023?
It actually leaves them with a competitive roster. They won’t get in the playoffs, but they won’t be competing for at top five pick in April either. They’d have to bite the cap bullet in 2023, but would get some relief in 2024 with $62 million in cap space and are pretty much in the clear beyond that.
Packers Offseason Roster
QB: Jordan Love/rookie or cheap vet
RB: Dillon/rookie
WR: Watson/Doubs/Toure or rookie or Melton
TE: Deguara/Austin Allen/rookie/rookie and or cheap vet
OT: Tom/Nijman
OG: Jenkins/Runyan
C: Myers
or my favorite
OT: rookie/Nijman
OG: Jenkins/Runyan or Myers
C: Tom
ED: Enagbare/rookie or Hollins (until Gary is back)
DL: Clark/Slaton/Wyatt
LB: Campbell/Walker
CB: Stokes/jaire
Nickel/Safety: Rasul
S: Savage/rookie
Final thoughts on the Packers Offseason Plans
The Packers could start to build through the draft and augment any holes with free agents starting in 2024. If Jordan Love isn’t the guy, there is going to be a pretty good quarterback class that year. With picks from a Rodgers trade, they could move up to take one. Also note the numbers in this article are all ball park figures. I’m not the best “numbers” guy.
If you have enjoyed reading the article you can check out my other stuff. I will also be doing a second part on what I think Gutekenst will do, so be on the look out for that.
