We are on a roll heading into Championship Weekend! Last week, we went 2-1, which puts us above .500 for the regular season at 20-19. We also made 1.1 units, putting us up 4.85 in total. We have a nice cushion heading into the post-season.
We have some great bets for Championship Weekend! All lines come via Draft Kings as of Thursday afternoon. Also, be sure to catch my, and my fellow ATB bettors’, locks and underdogs of the week on Around the Book.
Let’s get into the best bets for college football’s Championship Weekend!
College Football Championship Weekend Best Bets
SMU at #22 Tulane: Tulane -3.5 (-108)
Let’s kick things off with the AAC title game. Coincidentally this will also be SMU’s last game in the AAC, as they will be joining the ACC next year. Unfortunately for the Mustangs, Tulane won’t be giving them a very sweet farewell.
The Green Wave have been, by far, the best Group of Five team in the country this year. They have been rolling along on a ten-game winning streak. Now they get to play at home for the AAC title and a trip to a New Year’s Six Bowl.
Covering this spread may seem tricky for a Tulane team that has played several close games this year. However, they seem to be finding their stride as of late. Quarterback Michael Pratt is slowly getting back to his old self, throwing for five touchdowns over the last two weeks.
Expect Tulane’s defense to limit SMU’s explosive offense. On the other side, the Green Wave should be able to score enough to win by a touchdown. Lay the points.
Appalachian State at Troy: App State ML (+170)
Let’s stay with the Group of Five for this Sun Belt championship tilt. The Mountaineers may have gotten here on a technicality (James Madison was not eligible), but they are on a mission to prove they deserve this opportunity.
App State actually beat James Madison a couple weeks ago, so they are certainly capable of beating anyone in the Sun Belt. Heck, they even took an above-average Power Five program down to the wire earlier in the season in North Carolina. After that crushing double-overtime loss, the Mountaineers got into a funk, losing three out of their next five games. However, they have bounced back in a big way, winning five in a row, including an overtime thriller over the aforementioned Dukes.
That same James Madison team did beat Troy earlier in the year. That was one of the Trojans’ only two tests this year, and they failed both of them. The other was against another above-average Power Five program in no. 25 Kansas State. The Wildcats trounced Troy by nearly 30 points.
Don’t let the records fool you, this this matchup is much closer than what the five point spread would have you believe. Even at home, the Trojans should probably not be favorites. This matchup is a great opportunity to pounce on some solid value. Take the Mountaineers straight up.
#2 Michigan vs #16 Iowa: Iowa 22 (-110)
We will wrap things up with a Power Five conference title game, albeit one of the more straight-forward ones. While Michigan should have no problem winning this game, the spread is a far different story. 22 points is a lot to cover.
While the Wolverines may be undefeated straight up, they are just barely above .500 against the spread this year. After beating up on the run-of-the-mill Big Ten teams, Michigan had an average margin of victory of just over seven points in their last three games. While that was a significant step up in competition in Ohio State, Maryland, and Penn State, the Hawkeyes are a lot closer to those teams than they are the likes of Purdue and Michigan State.
The biggest threat to Michigan covering this spread is Iowa’s defense. Outside of the 31 points they allowed to Penn State, no other team has been able to score more than 16 points against the Hawkeyes. It is hard to cover 22 points if you struggle to get to 30 yourself.
Remember, even a 31-10 Michigan win still hits for this pick. Expect the Hawkeyes to get thoroughly dominated, but it won’t show up on the scoreboard. Lay the points with Iowa in what should be an anti-climactic end to the East vs West era of the Big Ten title game.
College Football Championship Weekend Best Bets Recap
- Tulane -3.5 (-108)
- App State ML (+170)
- Iowa +22 (-110)
- Parlay odds: +892