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Final 53-Man Packers Roster Prediction

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It is now time for my final 53-man Packers roster prediction. The Packers have said they will announce their “final” roster on Tuesday, so I am putting this out on Monday to “call my shot”.

It has been an interesting training camp for sure. It has seemed as if most of the roster spots have been locked up for awhile, and it has really come down to how many players do you want to keep at each positions. Do you keep nine or ten offensive linemen? Do you keep five wide receivers? or six? or seven? How many linebackers? etc…

I think this will be a fluid roster throughout the season; but here is my best guess at the Packers initial 53-man roster:

Packers 53-Man Roster Prediction: Offense

Credit: Katie Stratman/USA TODAY Sports

Quarterbacks: Jordan Love, Sean Clifford

This position is pretty easy to project; nothing much else to say here.

Running backs: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Patrick Taylor

Some have suggested they keep two since they kept only two on the initial roster last year, but I think that was due to them expecting Kylin Hill back soon. Taylor brings every skill set to the field the front office has said they want out of a #3 running back.

Wide Receivers: Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Malik Heath, Grant DuBose

There have been some suggesting keeping seven. I just can’t see that happening. Head coach Matt LaFleur barely uses four receiver sets, and uses a lot of 12 personnel. That would mean two receivers would be inactive every game. Samouri Toure has been the least impressive. He hasn’t taken the second-year leap that was expected. I could see them trading him. DuBose has flashed and Heath has been too good to cut.

Tight End/H-Back: Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, Austin Allen, Josiah Deguara

I think Allen is essentially the 53rd player on the roster, because he may not be on the roster for long if someone is cut they feel might be better.

Offensive line: David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, Jon Runyan, Zach Tom, Yosh Nijman, Rasheed Walker, Sean Rhyan, Caleb Jones

Cutting Royce Newman does leave Green Bay a bit light at guard, but of course Tom can play guard as well. If they want to keep that depth, expect Jones to be replaced by Newman.

Packers 53-Man Roster Prediction: Defense

Credit: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

Defensive line: Kenny Clark, TJ Slaton, Devonte Wyatt, Karl Brooks, Colby Wooden

I know Jonathan Ford has shown a couple flashes in camp and preseason, but I don’t think it’s enough to keep a player who would essentially be the third nose tackle.

Edge Rushers: Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Kingsley Enagbare, Lukas Van Ness, Justin Hollins, Brenton Cox

I personally would think Cox could make it to the practice squad, but it seems Green Bay doesn’t. I could see a point in the season, if there are a number of injuries at another position, that he is the one cut.

Linebacker: De’Vondre Campbell, Quay Walker, Eric Wilson, Isaiah McDuffie, Tariq Carpenter

Carpenter was the only question mark here. Packers special teams coach Rich Bisaccia’s influence on the roster, I think, causes them to keep him.

Cornerback: Rasul Douglas, Jaire Alexander, Carrington Valentine, Keisean Nixon, Corey Ballentine

There’s not much to say here. I think Ballentine makes it due to his special teams play, and that he’s an okay corner.

Safety: Darnell Savage, Rudy Ford, Tarvarius Moore, Dallin Leavitt, Anthony Johnson

I would like to see them keep Jonathan Owens around because he provides another veteran to a pretty meh group. However, he didn’t do enough, I feel, for the Packers to want to keep a sixth safety. Personally, I would cut Leavitt since Ford and Moore are good special teams players, but I don’t think they do it.

Packers 53-Man Roster Prediction: Special Teams

Punter: Daniel Whelan; Long Snapper: Matthew Orzech; Kicker: Anders Carlson

I would have brought in competition for Carlson. He probably needs a year on the practice squad.

As always you can read anything I’ve written on the Packers or the draft here.

Green Bay Packers 53-Man Roster Prediction 1.0

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It’s been awhile, I had to take a bit of a break post draft, but am now ready to get back in the groove. This will be my first Green Bay Packers roster prediction of the off-season.

With this being the first one of the off-season we won’t go into too much detail on depth chart, playing time, or even practice squad yet; probably in the next one. So let’s get to it!

Packers 53-Man Roster Prediction: Offense

Quarterback (2):

Jordan Love, Sean Clifford

This one is pretty easy; Love will be the guy, we all know that. Clifford was a fifth-round pick, and the only other quarterback on the roster is Danny Etling. As a rookie, Clifford is probably already a better QB than Etling.

The front office could bring in a vet, but I would still find it hard to believe they would cut a fifth-round pick. Maybe they keep three quarterbacks, if the vet at least shows he is a little better than Clifford.

Running back (3):

Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Lew Nichols III

The first two are obvious. Nothing much else to say there. The third spot comes down to Tyler Goodson, Lew Nichols, or Patrick Taylor. Taylor has been in Green Bay for three seasons. While he has shown he can play at the NFL level, he just hasn’t shown enough progression for the Packers to keep him around.

With Goodson, he could make the roster if the Packers decide to keep four, but I doubt as the third because you want a guy who can do everything for that spot and his pass pro is pretty bad.

Tight end (4):

Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave, Josiah Deguara, Tyler Davis

This position is pretty cut-and-dry. Kraft and Musgrave are, of course, both day two picks who will probably see the majority of the snaps this season at tight end. Deguara is the fullback/H-back, and Davis is the special teamer/occasional tight end. His spot is the most in danger, but there isn’t much behind him. If Austin Allen can show something in preseason, he could beat him out.

Credit: Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

Wide Receiver (6):

Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Grant DuBose, Bo Melton

The first four are pretty much locks to make the roster. Watson and Doubs will be the starters with Reed playing out of the slot. Wicks and DuBose have upside, and both are solid blockers. Wicks has just 18 career snaps on special teams, where DuBose has 97, so he will have to show he can learn it.

Toure and Melton will be in a fight for the 6th spot. I kept Melton over Toure because he can be a gadget/RB/returner/slot, where Toure is pretty much just a slot. A lot will be depend on if the Packers are willing to go light or heavy at another position. The Packers could also trade Melton or Toure.

Offensive line (9):

David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, John Runyan Jr., Yosh Nijman, Zach Tom, Sean Rhyan, Rasheed Walker, Royce Newman

I would say eight of these guys are pretty much locks to make the roster (Bakh, Jenkins, Myers, Runyan, Nijman, Tom, and Newman). That leaves one spot to be fought over by Jake Hanson, Caleb Jones, Luke Tenuta, and Rasheed Walker. Walker and Hanson are the only two with any real positional versatility, but Hanson isn’t very good.

Tom and Jenkins can both play center, and the Packers have a number of guards already. Walker could play left or right tackle, and could train to play guard as well. Tenuta and Jones are right tackles only. Jones did play some left tackle in the preseason, but I wouldn’t trust him there in a regular season game. If they go with 10, then it’s between Hanson or Jones. I would go with Jones.

Packers 53-Man Roster Prediction: Defense

Defensive Line (5):

Kenny Clark, TJ Slaton, Devonte Wyatt, Colby Wooden, Karl Brooks

This position is mostly cut-and-dry, as well. Clark, Slaton, Wyatt, and Wooden are locks. Brooks is close, since he is a draft pick and has shown he can rush the passer and the Packers like defensive linemen that can collapse the pocket. He has some versatility as well. The only question is do they keep a 6th?

I don’t think so, since they use so much sub-package defense and Ford didn’t play last season and didn’t do much in pre-season, either. They could easily get him on the practice squad.

Credit: Justin Fine/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Edge Rushers (5):

Preston Smith, Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare, Justin Hollins, Keshawn Banks. PUP: Rashan Gary

Gary tore his ACL in November, so even if he’s ahead of schedule that still puts him ready to play at the end of September or early October. PUP is four weeks now, so that pretty much lines up. Smith, Enagbare, Van Ness, and Hollins are all pretty much locks.

I chose Hollins because he showed he can get after the quarterback a bit last season, can defend the run, and can play some special teams. Despite poor testing, Banks is more athletic than Brenton Cox Jr. (he was dealing with a hamstring issue during his pro day); although Cox does play with more power and is better against the run.

With your last edge rusher spot you are looking for someone who’s athletic, can play special teams, and whose motor is non-stop. That is Banks. Cox had motor issues in college, and he isn’t fast or quick, and has no special teams experience. Banks has almost 200 special teams snaps in his career. Once Gary is back, Banks likely goes to the practice squad.

Linebackers (5):

DeVondre Campbell, Quay Walker, Isaiah McDuffie, Tariq Carpenter, Eric Wilson

The top four here are set in stone. The only question is do they keep five or six? Wilson would be close to a lock. The only other off-ball linebacker is Jimmy Phillips, who has a legit chance to make the roster.

I think they could stash him on the practice squad for a season and use him as a game day call up if there are injuries. He is a good linebacker and has a lot of special teams experience, playing 137 snaps just this past season.

Cornerback (6):

Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, Keisean Nixon, Shemar Jean-Charles, Carrington Valentine, Corey Ballentine. IR/PUP: Eric Stokes

Alexander, Douglas, and Nixon are locks, and SJC is close to it unless he bombs in the pre-season. He has special teams experience and can back up Nixon in the slot. Valentine is an athletic freak and a good special teams play, and of course has potential down the line.

Ballentine is another Gutekunst type; an athletic freak who is a good special teams player. You could do worse with your 6th CB.

I have Stokes on either the in-season IR or PUP, because we just don’t know where he is in his recovery.

Safety (5):

Darnell Savage, Jonathan Owens, Rudy Ford, Anthony Johnson Jr., Tarvarius, Moore

The Packers have eight total safeties on the roster right now, and outside of Savage their aren’t many roster locks. Due to his youth and starting experience, I would pencil Owens in as a starter this season. Ford showed last season he can play from scrimmage, if needed, and is a good special teams player.

Johnson Jr., of course, has down-the-line starter potential, and Moore is like a more physically talented version of Leavitt — and he still has some untapped potential.

Packers 53-Man Roster Prediction: Special Teams

Special Teams (3):

Anders Carlson, Matt Orzech, Patt O’Donnell

Carlson is a lock, despite what Packers coaches have said and will say leading up to the season. He is a kicker who was drafted in the 5th round — unless he is complete garbage they wont cut him.

Orzech is experienced and received some guaranteed money, so much like Carlson, unless he stinks up the joint he is a lock for the roster. O’Donnell, though, will have a fight for his spot with Dan Whelan, who I think is a year away but I would not be surprised if they kept him over O’Donnell.

There you guys have it, my early 53-man roster prediction for the Packers 2023 season. As always, you can always read any of my other articles here at ATB Netowrk.

The Myth of the Second Round Quarterback

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The NFL draft has come and gone, and there were plenty of surprises, notably at the quarterback position. Among them, not a single quarterback was picked in the second round.

After Kenny Pickett was drafted by the Steelers at 20, the next QB didn’t go until 54 picks later, even though there were several who analysts believed were capable of going in round two.

There’s just one small problem: second round quarterbacks don’t exist.

I know it sounds like an odd — or maybe blatantly false — statement, but there is a case to be made. The success rate on round two signal-callers is pretty horrendous, and it all seems to lead to this one conclusion.

In order to come to that conclusion, however, there are a variety of different criteria. First, the types of quarterbacks and draftable skills. Second, the structure, and third, the history of these picks. Those three, when looked at together, bring a pretty shocking revelation that made me conjure up that statement above.

Drafting a Quarterback

Teams who find themselves drafting quarterbacks highly may be in a variety of spots, but there are three that are the most typical:

  1. One of the league’s worst teams, holding a high draft pick.
  2. Middling franchise, looking to make a change.
  3. Top of the league, finding the protégé for an older (on the verge of retirement) leader.

When teams find themselves in any of these positions, they must find the traits they value in a quarterback. Among those are arm talent, rushing ability, composure, ability to read the field, and more. However, there are two categories that those fall into, which, for the sake of the argument are production and potential.

To put it simply, teams judge what a quarterback is right now versus what he could be in a few years.

Scenario one

The top guys usually have a combination of both. Trevor Lawrence, who went number one to the Jaguars last year, combined national championships and Heisman ballot appearances with a 6’6″ frame and a cannon of an arm. Thus, he went to a team that I would place in the first set of criteria. The Jaguars were easily one of the worst teams in the NFL, and thus received a generational talent.

Scenario Two

Those with one of the two traits, however, have a wide range of options. For a team that’s just good enough to be picking outside of the quarterback window, they might be willing to take a chance on a potentially huge swing in their franchises history. Kenny Pickett is a prime example of this. While he doesn’t have the strongest arm or the highest ceiling, his production last season was hard to ignore. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who were 9-7-1 last year, decided that he was worth it at 20.

Kenny Pickett goes 20th overall.

Following that pick, there were other quarterbacks on the board, who, like Pickett, possessed one of the two main traits. Malik Willis, who some suspected may go as high as number two overall, had one of the highest ceilings in the draft, however, if he wasn’t going to go in the first, it seemed he wasn’t getting drafted until later on day 2.

scenario threE

Teams that fall in the third category (such as the Packers in 2020) have a tough decision. While they could take their chances on a high-potential pick like Jordan Love, it makes the most sense to maximize their championship window. Green Bay took that chance in 2020, and passed up elite talent because of it. Now, teams have learned from that mistake, while quarterbacks brunt the blow to their draft position.

Thus, Malik Willis, Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder, and all of the quarterbacks who many expected to go in round one, are now available in the dreaded first half of day two.

The Structure of the Second Round

On the typical draft boards, teams have a wide range of grades on prospects. It’s common to see someone who’s viewed as a top prospect by one team be a day two pick for someone else. Due to this disparity, many “first round talents” fall into the beginning of day two.

These players are quickly scooped up in what makes up roughly 25 percent of the round. This leaves the last 24 picks for guys truly viewed as round two prospects, which doesn’t leave much room for quarterbacks.

If a team would have believed in someone enough to draft them with those first eight picks, it’s unlikely he would have slipped to begin with. Teams rarely risk the opportunity of missing out their guy. This is why it’s common to see teams move up to 32. They guarantee themselves the player they want with an extra year of team control.

Lamar Jackson was drafted 32 overall.

If a team wasn’t willing to take that chance, it’s unlikely they viewed them very highly. That idea is exactly what makes the second round the worst for the quarterback. Would a team take a player who, at the most important position in the sport, they aren’t fully invested in or comfortable with — especially when there is still high-end talent on the board?

The last 24

Once you find your way out of those first eight picks, it becomes time for teams to ask themselves that question. As this draft has shown, the answer has been a resounding “no.” The later picks, which are usually the teams competing for playoff spots, would rather choose someone who can contribute right away. Bubble teams are always looking for their next big acquisition, and their philosophy is that is can come then.

Quarterbacks, as a result, usually fall by the wayside. However, there are some instances where they are picked. The results of which are rather interesting.

Modern History of the Second Round Quarterback

Over the last 20 years, there have been 20 quarterbacks selected in the second round. 20 different times, teams have weighed the ideas of production and potential, and in the last two decades, have determined it’s time to take a quarterback who likely only had one of those traits.

A list of second round quarterback selections of the last 20 years.

Of those, the results are typically a failure of epic proportions. Kellen Clemens, Deshone Kizer, Drew Stanton, Chad Henne, Brian Brohm, John Beck, Jimmy Clausen, and Geno Smith all have more career interceptions than touchdowns, while Christian Hackenberg and Kyle Trask (who’s only in his second season) never played a recorded snap.

The other options aren’t great either. Tavaris Jackson, Brock Osweiler, and Kevin Kolb all showed some flashes, but never lived up to their selection.

Five of the remaining six are polarizing. Jalen Hurts has shown flashes, but fell apart in the playoffs. Drew Lock is still young, but was just traded by the Broncos and has been shaky. Jimmy Garoppolo was able to succeed in the Kyle Shanahan offense, but was just replaced and hasn’t shown an ability to transcend the system. Andy Dalton is a similar story, having rough stints in limited playoff appearances. Lastly, Colin Kaepernick led the 49ers to a Super Bowl appearance, but has been out of the league for the better half of the last decade.

This leaves Derek Carr, who, while having only one playoff appearance and zero playoff wins, has safely cemented a spot as the Raiders quarterback for eight years. He has made three Pro Bowls, and has continued to improve. Thus making him the only second round quarterback selected in the last 20 years who can safely be called a hit.

The Bottom Line on the Second Round Quarterback

The 2022 NFL Draft was a prime example of a philosophy at work. After a quarterback goes in the first round, teams have learned from mistakes of the past. Rather than picking signal callers with clear holes in their game in the following round, they’ve gone for contributors at other positions.

Several teams would love to have the next Derek Carr, but with that comes the chance of Brian Brohm or Deshone Kizer. Just like every other selection, the second round has it’s fair share of bust potential. However, it seems that the combination of quarterback traits, draft tendencies, and a simple history lesson will tell you that it simply isn’t the same.

General managers across the league will continue to take swings on quarterbacks, but when doing so, it’s important to look at the most glaring fact:

Second round quarterbacks don’t exist.

2020 Season in Review: Should the Dolphins have redshirted Tua Tagovailoa?

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Despite what should be regarded as a successful 2020 campaign, this offseason has been full of question marks surrounding the future of starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Following on from endless criticism from the likes of Colin Cowherd, Chris Simms and Skip Bayless amongst others, Tua finally broke his silence on his rookie season at the start of OTAs this past week. In what can only be described as an incredibly honest and self critical interview, much of what he said leads to the question, were the Dolphins right to play Tua in 2020?

Looking back, it is very easy to see the argument in favor of red shirting Tua. After all, the same approach was taken by the Kansas City Chiefs when they elected to roll with veteran QB Alex Smith and to sit the future MVP and Super Bowl winner Patrick Mahomes in his first season. Tua is not Mahomes. In fact Tua has endured a much more challenging ordeal. 

A rookie QB coming off a potentially career ending injury, with rehabilitation and a global pandemic hampering any chance of a productive offseason, to enable him to hit the ground running in his first season in the NFL. It is now clear that despite what fans were told about Tua’s hip being ready to play in the NFL, it was not ready for him to be Tua, the most efficient and accurate passer in college history; the Tua that Dolphins fans thought they were getting with the 5th overall pick.

https://twitter.com/Dolphin_Nation/status/1400968608851898369/photo/1

Tua himself admitted to not having the confidence in his first year to make the appropriate alerts and checks, caused by his own failure of not knowing a playbook designed for Fitzpatrick well enough. It is therefore very easy to come to the conclusion that knowing this, the Dolphins should have elected to redshirt Tua, not risking the season or the health of an unprepared QB. So why did the Dolphins take that risk and did it pay off?

Following on from the 2019 season, nobody seriously expected the Dolphins to progress in their rebuild as far as they did. From improving from 5-11 to 10-6 in one season, highlights the direction of the team moving forward as a legitimate AFC contender. Whilst some questions may continue to linger throughout the media and on Twitter, had Tua not seen the field at all last season, even more questions would have arisen, following successful rookie campaigns of both Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.

After being selected 5th overall and to not see the field over the likes of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen, comparisons will have inevitably been made with Jordan Love in not being NFL ready. By allowing Tua the opportunity to make his mistakes in a weakened AFC East, with both the Jets and Patriots very much below par, meant that any rookie mistakes that were made did not come at the expense of winning in the moment.

Therefore, whilst it may be seen that electing to play Tua was setting him up for failure in 2020, it has subsequently created a platform for him to succeed in 2021 and beyond.

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