Tag Archives: Justin Fields

Best NFL Bets for Week 8

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The weekend is finally here, which means it is time to place your NFL bets! Last week, we went 1-2 for the fifth straight week. We got burned by a fourth quarter offensive explosion in New England, and a second-half offensive freeze-up from the Cardinals. That brings us to a paltry 8-12-1 on the season for the NFL portion of our Best Bets series. In terms of units, we only dropped 0.76 for the weekend, which puts us down 1.58 units on the year.

We aren’t too far gone yet. Getting back to positive is still within striking distance. This week’s match-ups look pretty ugly, but it all pays out just the same. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday evening. Also, be sure to catch my, and my fellow ATB bettors’, locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for Week 8!

Photo Credit: Clutchpoints.com

Texans at Panthers: Panthers ML (+145)

Let’s kick things off with a (mildly) hot take. This is finally going to be the week in which the Panthers get their first win of the season. It won’t be easy. The Texans are better than expected this year. However, there is reason to believe Carolina can get it done.

As well as Houston is playing this year, this is still very much a rebuilding team. They don’t have a ton of high-level talent, and their rookie quarterback is still developing. There are no easy wins for a team in their position.

The Panthers are in a very similar boat. While they haven’t played quite as well as the Texans, it feels like that win is right around the corner. This pick is rooted more in vibes than data, but sometimes that’s what you need.

Vikings at Packers: Over 42 (-108)

We are switching it up this week and betting on the over. While this NFC North match-up may be ugly, it has significant potential for points. The Vikings have an offense that can put up points and a defense that struggles to stop anyone. On the flip side, Green Bay is average to below-average on both sides of the ball.

Minnesota should have no problem scoring against the Packers. Also, Green Bay should be able to score more than usual against a weak Vikings defense. It doesn’t hurt that we get the added chaos of a divisional matchup.

The most advantageous part of this pick is the line. At 42, it is clear the bookies are trying to adjust to all the low-scoring games we’ve seen this year. This is the time to pounce. Expect both of these teams to be somewhere in the mid 20s. The over may not hit by a lot, but it will get there. That is all that matters.

Chargers at Bears: Over 46.5 (-110)

Let’s keep the over bets going with some Sunday night fireworks. Both of these teams can score, and neither play great defense. Also, it seems as though the Bears offense hasn’t missed a beat with Tyson Bagent at quarterback in place of the injured Justin Fields.

Offensively, the Bears and Chargers combine to average a little over 46 points per game. That doesn’t look great for the over, but it gets a lot better when you look at the defenses. On that side of the ball, these two teams give up over 52 points per game combined.

It is hard to say who will win this game, but we know there will be plenty of scoring. This game will likely be a race to 30 points. Hammer the over.

Week 8 NFL Best Bets Recap

  • Panthers ML (+145)
  • Vikings @ Packers: Over 42 (-108)
  • Chargers @ Bears: Over 46.5 (-110)
  • Parlay odds: +800

Five Things We Learned In Week 2 Of The NFL Season

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If anybody thought this NFL season was going to be a normal one, they were clearly mistaken. Severe injuries to star players like Aaron Rodgers, Nick Chubb and Saquon Barkley have already taken place, and we have several fanbases already calling for the termination of their coaching staff. There is a lot of football left, but there is a lot that we can learn from this past week’s games in the NFL. Here’s what we learned from Week 2.

What We Learned in Week 2 #1:

It’s Time To Be Concerned In Chicago

The Bears and quarterback Justin Fields were a lot of analysts pick to take the next step. Fields looked promising throughout the end of last season, and the team added play-makers across the board in DJ Moore, Tremaine Edmunds, and Yannick Ngakoue to help get the roster to the next level. However, after two weeks Fields looks completely lost in the pocket, and is seemingly completely misreading defenses missing wide open targets, and called out the coaches for his “robotic” play to start the season off.

Photo Credit: AP Photo/Scott Audette

Fields since clarified these comments, noting that “he has to play better”, but the fact that the comments were even made by the franchise quarterback in the first place is alarming. As for the defense, they are playing poorly, and are battling injuries in the secondary. On top of that it has already lost its defensive coordinator to unknown circumstances (more information on that when the situation becomes clearer).

Luckily for the Bears, they have multiple draft picks again in this upcoming draft to add talent if the team can’t turn things around soon. Time will tell if it is going to be this coaching staff and regime that are the ones to make those selections.

What We Learned in Week 2 #2:

Daniel Jones Isn’t Worth The Contract

The Giants squeaked by the Arizona Cardinals this past weekend after a crazy second half comeback down 20-0. However the storyline from that game shouldn’t be the comeback, or even the Giants injuries to Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley, but the play of Daniel Jones not warranting the 4 year $160 million dollar contract he signed this past off-season.

Jones through two weeks has 425 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Those stats don’t look horrible until you dig into them, as the majority of them came in the second half of this week’s game against Arizona, who most deem as the worst team in the NFL. He played well in the second half against Arizona, but will we see that play consistently against much better teams? That is still to be determined.

Luckily for the Giants, the contract does have an out after next season if Jones does not elevate his game to take the Giants to the next level. It is going to be hard to buy into the Giants as a serious threat in the NFC East with Dallas, Philadelphia, and now seemingly Washington in that division. But more than that, it is hard to buy into the Giants with Daniel Jones as their quarterback moving forward.

What We Learned in Week 2 #3:

Brandon Staley Should Have Been Fired Last Season

This take should not be a surprise to anybody. Brandon Staley’s coaching malpractice is costing the Chargers football games. Justin Herbert is arguably the most gifted quarterback in the league when it comes to physical football traits, and Kellen Moore is one of the league’s most creative offensive minds in the league. The Chargers are fourth in the league in total offensive yards and sixth in the league in points through two weeks. Herbert is playing at a near MVP level, and the Chargers are getting contributions from everybody on offense.

So why are the Chargers 0-2? Their defense.

The Chargers have allowed the most total yards through two weeks this season at 438 yards per game, and the third most points through two weeks at 31.5 a game. With the amount of money invested in players like Khalil Mack, J.C Jackson, Derwin James, Sebastian Joseph-Day, and Joey Bosa, the defense should be performing better than it is. The blame should be placed on nobody else other than the architect of the defense; head coach Brandon Staley.

Staley was on the hot seat after last season and that seat has only gotten hotter through two weeks this year.

What We Learned in Week 2 #4:

It’s Time To Respect Eric Bienemy As A Viable Head Coaching Candidate

Eric Bienemy has gone through numerous NFL head coaching interviews over the last several seasons after successful years with Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs, but to no avail. This past off-season, Bienemy took a chance, bet on himself, and took the offensive coordinator job of the Washington Commanders. He did so without certainty at the QB position.

Through two weeks, the Commanders are 2-0, and Sam Howell looks like a true NFL starter. Last season the Commanders ranked in the bottom half in points per game, yards per game, and passing yards per game. Under Bienemy this season, the Commanders are seventh in the league in points per game, and look like a much more efficient offense.

If Bienemy is able to keep this performance up throughout the entire season, he can shake off the comments about needing Andy Reid or Patrick Mahomes, and has a really good chance at making a case for this own head coaching gig next off-season.

What We Learned in Week 2 #5:

Houston Is Heading In The Right Direction

This team is not good, but man they are fun to watch. The Texans are letting rookie quarterback CJ Stroud sling the ball all over the place, and the offense has looked quite dynamic in his first two starts, averaging the fifth most passing yards in the league. Stroud looks electric, even without a consistent running game behind him or offensive line in front of him, and Nico Collins and Tank Dell are a very fun duo at wide receiver to watch.

However, the team is 0-2, and that should not be a surprise. The roster is not filled with enough talent, yet, to compete at a high enough level to win games consistently, and that was expected. One thing Houston’s front office, coaching staff, and fans can be happy about is the development of their new franchise QB. It has been a long time since Houston has gotten consistent play at the position, and now they finally have their guy, Stroud, at the helm of this rebuild.

Getting Stroud reps and getting more talent around him should be the next step of this regime to take the leap into consistently winning games.

Three great NFL futures bets ahead of the 2023 season

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Gambling has taken the sports world by storm. Sports fans having the ability to have a financial investment in the game has helped certain leagues surge, with the NFL being no exception. With training camp around the corner, teams are laying the foundation for what they hope is a successful 2023 campaign.

Who are some teams and players that you can feel comfortable hitching your wagon (and hard-earned money) to in 2023? Here are some of the best NFL futures bets of the season, brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbook. 

NFL Futures Bet #1

Chicago Bears to make the playoffs: +160 

Worst record in the league to the playoffs in just a year? The idea is far fetched, to say the least, but is something worth considering. A bet on the Bears is a bet on Justin Fields. The former first round pick quarterback is one of the biggest question marks in football this season.

Fields flashed some unbelievable playmaking potential in 2022, making countless dazzling plays with his legs. He also put that feathery downfield touch on display with several basket-drops for chunk plays. However, turnovers and efficiency as a passer limited what he could do. The supporting cast around him was also worse than any of his fellow 2021 draftees have had to suffer through. The Bears took some steps towards remedying that ahead of the 2023 season. 

The 2022 Chicago Bears had an abysmal offensive line. Turnstiles in front of him, coupled with lackluster receiving options, led to Fields using his legs more often than he or the Bears would have preferred. That can all change in 2023. Chicago took steps towards improving the offensive line with the additions of Nate Davis in free agency and Darnell Wright with their first round selection.

Mid-season addition Chase Claypool will now have a complete off-season and training camp with Fields. The Bears also acquired DJ Moore, one of the bright young receivers in the NFL. Fields will have a drastically better supporting cast in 2023, despite this unit still being substantially worse than most of the league. 

How this translates into wins will all be dependent on Fields. Defensively, the Bears still have a ways to go. If Fields takes the leap that many are expecting, the Bears have the ability to steal some games in a lackluster NFC. It may only take nine wins to see the Bears in the Wild Card round. Would we put our house on the Bears playoff hopes? Unlikely; but betting on a Justin Fields leap might be one of the better high-reward bets this season. 

NFL Futures Bet #2

Los Angeles Rams to have a winning record: +300

The Rams have a disaster of a roster. Los Angeles will open training camp later this month with 36 rookies. They also had one of the worst records in football last season. Matthew Stafford was a shell of himself when he was on the field, and Sean McVay is fighting rumors of a departure to television every off-season. Why on Earth should anyone put their money on LA this season? Talent

Think about it this way. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald. Sean McVay is still the coach. If those three players stay healthy and perform like they normally do, the Rams could easily limp their way to 9-8. The NFC has never been worse, and Los Angeles gets two games against the Arizona Cardinals.

The team isn’t anything to write home about, but who better to trust with your money than a few Hall of Famers who were hoisting a Lombardi trophy just under 17 months ago? 

NFL Futures Bet #3

Odell Beckham Jr 575.5 receiving yards: -110

Once a record breaking youngster, the career of Odell Beckham Jr took a disastrous turn upon his 2019 trade to the Cleveland Browns. Two ACL tears and a Super Bowl later, Beckham is back on an NFL team and ready to go. The 30-year-old has teamed up with former MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson with the Baltimore Ravens.

There is no player better to buy low on than the former Rookie of the Year. This line is absurdly low. There is no bigger “This is free money” bet on the DraftKings Sportsbook right now. 

It is incredibly important to acknowledge that Beckham has now torn his ACL twice, is on the wrong side of 30, and has not played since February of 2022. All of that matters. However, looking at this total from a numbers perspective just makes too much sense.

If he plays 17 games, Beckham would only need to average 34 yards per game. That is two catches and a broken tackle. For the injury skeptics, taking his total down to 12 games changes that number to just under 50 yards per game. It is also important to remember that the Ravens have hired notorious vertical-route lover Todd Monken as their new offensive coordinator.

The total is far too low. Bet on Beckham. 

NFL Futures Bets Recap

  • Chicago Bears Playoffs: +160
  • LA Rams Over .500: +300
  • Odell Beckham Jr Over 575.5 receiving: -110

The Chicago Bears Rebuild is Sabotaging Justin Fields

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Justin Fields staring, like he's seen the plans for the Chicago Bears rebuild
Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

In the modern NFL, the plan is to build around a quarterback under his rookie contract, then figure out the rest later. The Chicago Bears rebuild, on the other hand, seems to be one where they’re playing checkers with chess pieces.

While team construction can take many paths, the one Chicago has taken makes no sense. Instead of taking their young quarterback and nurturing him, the Bears are making Justin Fields play out his career on hard mode.

Ah, you say Chicago’s offensive line was the worst in the NFL, and that Fields needs interior protection? Fear not, for the Bears have drafted tackles high up, and taken two developmental guard prospects in the later rounds of this year’s NFL draft

Fields needs a receiver room that can bail him out and make plays downfield, then. Of course, the Bears have had all their receivers leave except for Darnell Mooney, and have drafted a college WR2 as their top receiver pick.

But, what about giving Justin Fields an offensive head coach? Oh, they hired Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus? Darn.

In many ways, this team is worse off than they were last year.

The offensive line (still) does not exist

Bears quarterbacks in 2021 were sacked on 9.7 percent of their dropbacks, which was the worst in the league. Anyone who watched a Bears game last year will tell you that Justin Fields had no room to throw, and was often scrambling for his life.

The best lineman on the entire roster was James Daniels, who has had to play musical chairs with his position. Joining him as the team’s best lineman was Jason Peters. Sure, he’ll be in the Hall of Fame, but even the Bears didn’t see fit to bring back a 40-year-old tackle for 2022.

It goes downhill from there, though. Cody Whitehair’s 66.2 PFF grade is a highlight. Teven Jenkins – who had a PFF grade of 47.5 last season – may be starting for this year in 2022.

Jenkins position has come about due to the departures on the line of scrimmage. Daniels is now a Steeler, while Germain Ifedi and Elijah Wilkinson left for Atlanta.

The Bears have attempted to bolster their interior, somewhat. Signing Lucas Patrick from Green Bay should help, but Patrick only posted a 57.2 PFF grade in 2021.

But, in the draft, they focused on grabbing tackles and developmental prospects. Their first offensive line pick was not until the fifth round, where they grabbed tackle Braxton Jones from Southern Utah. They didn’t grab an interior line prospect until the sixth round, which boggles the mind.

The 2022 line still has at least one starting position open, if not two. At left tackle and at guard, the starter has yet to be determined. It is wonderous, however, that this line has ended up worse than last year’s, especially at a time critical to Justin Fields’ development.

What receivers?

As bad as the offensive line situation is, the wide receiver room is worse.

Darnell Mooney is still with the Bears, but that’s about all one can say. Allen Robinson has gone off to be with the Rams. Damiere Byrd and Marquise Goodwin have left for Atlanta and Seattle, respectively. Return specialist Jakeem Grant has left for Cleveland.

With what little talent there was now out the door, Chicago needed receivers bad. Unfortunately, despite having the fifth most cap space in the NFL, they were only able to sign Byron Pringle from Kansas City, as well as Equanimeous St. Brown from Green Bay. Pringle should make a solid addition, but St. Brown had less than 100 yards receiving last year for Green Bay.

As bad as free agency was for the Bears, the draft ended up being worse. They only grabbed one receiver; Velus Jones Jr. out of Tennessee. Jones, however, was not even the top receiver for the Vols, and is also coming into the NFL as a 25-year-old rookie.

The only real bright spot is that Cole Kmet is a solid checkdown target at tight end, but that’s about it. Mostly, though, the receiver situation is barren.

2022’s receiving corps looks like it’ll be Brown, followed by Pringle, with St. Brown and Jones Jr. being targets in the slot. That’s a very bad situation to be in, especially for a second-year quarterback who is already far too antsy to run out of the pocket.

Hiring Matt Eberflus is also a huge question mark

It is a truism that all teams will hire the exact opposite guy that they just fired.

For the Bears, it was no different. Matt Nagy came in with experience as an offensive guy. When Nagy was fired, Chicago hired Matt Eberflus, who was the Colts defensive coordinator.

Eberflus is considered to be a good player manager, but his hiring is becoming a big problem for Justin Fields already, given his focus on defense. In an NFL confidential article for The Athletic, one evaluator stated “they want to get back to old-school Chicago football where they play great defense and good-enough offense.” Although that evaluator would say he was okay with their rebuild, it’s hard to argue that Fields development isn’t going to be hampered by it.

Indeed, if the coach is favoring his side of the ball more in hopes of a long-term rebuild, then that coach will be in for a rude awakening. We are living in a post-defense-wins-championships world. Any team that deviates from going offense-first is going to find themselves lagging behind real fast.

Justin Fields already suffers from mechanical issues that hamper his game. How is he supposed to work on those when the entire plan is to rely on his scrambling ability?

All these problems sum up to a Chicago Bears rebuild gone awry, and it’s too bad for Fields that he has to languish on this team.

Chicago Bears Mock Draft

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Chicago Bears Mock Draft
Image via Cleveland.com

This season has been brutal for Chicago fans. At this point it feels like the Bears are playing just to get Justin Fields more experience in the NFL. With the 2021 season looking as bleak as ever, let’s look ahead into the 2022 NFL draft. Here is my November Chicago Bears mock draft. Grab yourself your favorite beer, cocktail, or a cup of coffee and let’s run through it!

Round 2

Jameson Williams, Wide Receiver, Alabama

The Bears offense is set to lose Allen Robinson this off-season and doesn’t have a very great receiving corps to begin with. Darnell Mooney has been solid, but Chicago’s front office must give Justin Fields the weapons to help him succeed at the next level.

Let’s give this Bears offense some more juice. Jameson Williams is a burner out wide, as evidenced by this video. Williams also has some chemistry with Justin Fields already, as both were at Ohio State in 2019 and 2020. In those two seasons, Williams had 266 yards and three touchdowns on 15 receptions, that’s good for 17.7 yards per catch.

This season, Williams has taken his game to the next level. Williams, through eleven games, has 59 receptions that have gone for 1,218 yards and 13 touchdowns, good for 20.6 yards per catch.

That kind of game-breaking ability is exactly what this Chicago offense needs. Vertical passing is probably Justin Fields’ greatest strength as well.

Round 3

Jarrett Patterson, Interior Offensive Line, Notre Dame

Protect Justin Fields at all costs. Jarrett Patterson is one of the better pass protectors on the interior in this draft class. Patterson also has the capability to play all three positions on the interior of the offensive line.

This Bears offensive line is still a work in progress even after drafting Teven Jenkins and Larry Borom last off-season. With James Daniels still without a contract extension, this could be a huge need for Chicago. If Daniels does get his extension — which in my opinion he should — the Bears can easily drop Patterson in as their starting center day one.

My summer scouting report on Jarrett Patterson can be found here!

Round 5

Cam Hart, Cornerback, Notre Dame

The Bears secondary is still going to be an issue in 2022. Jaylon Johnson has been solid, but the rest of the secondary has been poor. Good teams have depth in the secondary and Chicago has none.

Cam Hart may not be a sexy name, but he has been a rock-solid cover man for the Fighting Irish this season. As the draft nears closer and closer, he might be a guy who won’t even make it out of Day 2 of the NFL Draft.

I have some thoughts on him after I attended the ND-USC game this season that you can find here!

Round 6

Cade Mays, Interior Offensive Line, Tennessee

As I mentioned above, this Chicago Bears offensive line needs improvement. Even after selecting Jarrett Patterson, Chicago could add a depth piece in Cade Mays late in the draft.

A nice complement to the Teven Jenkins pick last year, Mays will bring the intensity this offensive line room lacks at times. Mays isn’t afraid to block defenders through (and sometimes after) the whistle.

Clearly you can see that I think the biggest objective for the Chicago Bears this off-season should be to build up this offense around Justin Fields. He has shown glimpses of incredible arm talent already this season, even in a poor situation.

With only four draft picks (not including any comp picks that will be coming Chicago’s way), it is tough to imagine this team getting much better though the draft.

Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace are almost definitely gone after this season. You can read my thoughts on that here. It’s hard to predict how a new general manager will draft and what he prioritizes, but I will continue to do Chicago Bears mock drafts throughout the season and in the off-season. Until then, peace!

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