Florida vs Georgia Preview

Date: October 29, 2022
Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Network: CBS
Records: Florida Gators (4-3) vs Georgia Bulldogs (7-0)
Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Spread: Florida +22.5
Over/Under: 56.5
Pick: Georgia 49 – Florida 28

Florida vs Georgia Preview

Florida takes on Georgia at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville in a heated rivalry game. The Bulldogs are coming into the game undefeated, while Florida is sitting at 4-3. Georgia won the game last year, on their way to winning the SEC East and the National Championship. The game would have been kept close last year, but Florida had turnover issues at the end of the first half that helped the Bulldogs get the victory.

Florida’s offense looks more explosive this year, but has had some inconsistencies, while Georgia’s defense has taken a small step back. However, the Bulldogs are still a championship contender and should look to get a win.

Florida vs Georgia
Photo by James Gilbert via Getty Images

Georgia Bulldogs

Offensive Stats

Points Per Game (Rank): 43.2 (3)
Total Yards Per Game: 534.5 (2)
Passing YPG: 326.2 (8)
Rushing YPG: 208.3 (16)
Points Per Play: 0.589 (5)
Yards Per Play: 7.3 (2)
3rd Down Conversion %: 54.93 (4)
4th Down Conversion %: 100.00 (1)
Red Zone Scoring %: 100.00 (1)

Rush Play %: 48.64 (84)
Yards Per Carry: 5.8 (5)
Runs Per Game: 35.7 (68)

Pass Play %: 51.36 (48)
Completion %: 70.91 (20)
Yards Per Pass: 8.9 (11)
Passes Per Game: 36.7 (28)
Interception %: 0.45 (3)
QB Sack %: 2.65 (11)

Defensive Stats

Points Per Game (Rank): 10.7 (2)
Total Yards Per Game: 267.0 (5)
Passing YPG: 172.8 (8)
Rushing YPG: 94.2 (8)
Points Per Play: 0.181 (2)
Yards Per Play: 4.5 (10)
3rd Down Conversion %: 32.93 (22)
4th Down Conversion %: 55.56 (78)
Red Zone Scoring %: 70.00 (9)

Rush Play %: 45.33 (10)
Yards Per Carry: 3.5 (26)
Runs Per Game: 26.7 (1)

Pass Play %: 54.67 (122)
Completion %: 53.48 (8)
Yards Per Pass: 5.5 (3)
Passes Per Game: 31.2 (55)
Interception %: 3.21 (37)
QB Sack %: 3.11 (125)

Advanced Stats

F+ combines FEI, a neutral field scoring differential metric broken down per-possession, and SP+, a tempo and opponent adjusted efficiency metric. F+ can be broken down into Offensive F+ (OF+) and Defensive F+ (DF+). All metrics are from Football Outsiders. PFF’s power rankings are Point Spread Rating.

F+: 2.44 (2)
FEI: 1.43 (2)
SP+: 28.4 (3)
OF+: 1.92 (4)
DF+: 2.20 (1)
PFF: 31.4 (1)

Georgia Bulldogs Team Breakdown

The Bulldogs are led on offense by quarterback Stetson Bennett. They have two elite tight ends in Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington. Florida has struggled to stop tight ends throughout the season, so Bowers and Washington will be vital in Georgia’s offensive attack. Georgia’s receivers have not lived up to expectation thus far, somewhat due to injury, and that continues as Adonai Mitchell is questionable. The running game is led by Kenny McIntosh.

Georgia’s defense has still been very good despite a step down due to a large number of losses to the NFL. Star defensive tackle Jalen Carter is questionable for the game. The secondary is extremely talented, led by future first round pick Kelee Ringo at cornerback.

Georgia Bulldogs Keys To Victory

  1. Limit Turnovers
  2. Convert Third Downs
  3. Stop the Run
  4. Limit Anthony Richardson

Florida Gators

Offensive Stats

Points Per Game (Rank): 28.0 (60)
Total Yards Per Game: 389.7 (65)
Passing YPG: 187.8 (104)
Rushing YPG: 201.8 (25)
Points Per Play: 0.453 (29)
Yards Per Play: 6.3 (25)
3rd Down Conversion %: 41.89 (48)
4th Down Conversion %: 60.00 (35)
Red Zone Scoring %: 80.00 (80)

Rush Play %: 57.72 (48)
Yards Per Carry: 6.3 (25)
Runs Per Game: 33.8 (90)

Pass Play %: 45.28 (84)
Completion %: 54.32 (112)
Yards Per Pass: 7.0 (82)
Passes Per Game: 27.0 (105)
Interception %: 3.70 (103)
QB Sack %: 3.57 (20)

Defensive Stats

Points Per Game (Rank): 30.0 (80)
Total Yards Per Game: 441.2 (104)
Passing YPG: 242.0 (78)
Rushing YPG: 199.2 (111)
Points Per Play: 0.421 (86)
Yards Per Play: 6.2 (112)
3rd Down Conversion %: 54.43 (131)
4th Down Conversion %: 44.44 (35)
Red Zone Scoring %: 83.33 (60)

Rush Play %: 56.78 (110)
Yards Per Carry: 4.9 (115)
Runs Per Game: 40.5 (108)

Pass Play %: 43.22 (22)
Completion %: 65.52 (109)
Yards Per Pass: 8.3 (114)
Passes Per Game: 29.0 (29)
Interception %: 3.45 (28)
QB Sack %: 5.95 (62)

Advanced Stats

F+: 0.67 (36)
FEI: 0.32 (37)
SP+: 9.6 (31)
OF+: 0.96 (22)
DF+: 0.07 (64)
PFF: 3.8 (51)

Florida Gators Team Breakdown

The Gators are led on offense by Anthony Richardson, as well as a two-headed attack out of the backfield from Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne. Justin Shorter has been the most productive receiver for the Gators, and Ricky Pearsall has also been good, but with more limited production. The tight ends have not provided consistent production for the team.

The offensive line gets a massive addition with O’Cyrus Torrence coming back from injury this week. The star right guard has a chance to be an All-American at the end of the season. Others along the offensive line have also played well, and there are no weak points along it, which is vital for success.

The defense has struggled mightily this year. The secondary has given up a ton of big plays, and the defensive line has consistently failed to get pressure. Even the linebackers have struggled as well. The Gators are last in the country in 3rd down defense. Everything that can go wrong has gone wrong defensively. Florida must create turnovers in this game, and must greatly improve on third down to stand a chance in the game.

Florida Gators Keys To Victory

  1. No Turnovers
  2. Force Multiple Turnovers
  3. Get Stops On 3rd Down (Under 40%)
  4. Run the Ball (200+ Yards)
  5. Anthony Richardson 250+ Total Yards

Florida Gators vs South Carolina Gamecocks: Week 10 Preview

  • Date: November 6, 2021
  • Time: 7:30pm EST
  • Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, South Carolina
  • TV: SEC Network
  • Record: Gators (4-4) Gamecocks (4-4)
Gators vs Gamecocks
Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Week 9 Recap

Last week, Florida lost to Georgia 34-7. The Gators lack of offense was not a major surprise given the Bulldog’s elite defense. Anthony Richardson got the start, but left the game with an injury. He finished the day 12/20 for 82 yards and added 26 yards on the ground. Emory Jones finished the game, and completed 10 of 14 passes for 112 yards and added 22 yards on the ground. The running game was stifled as compared to normal weeks, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry. They still gained 161 yards rushing, but this was due to 39 carries as a team. Dameon Pierce was by far the best running back last week, gaining 69 yards on just 9 carries.

The defense played well all things considered. They gave up 161 yards through the air on 19 attempts and had two interceptions, both by Rashad Torrence II. They gave up 193 yards on the ground, which is another poor performance against the run, after a similar result against LSU. Trey Dean III led the team in both tackles and tackles for loss, with 8 tackles and the only tackle for loss, which was a sack.

What to Watch

Florida’s Front 7 Against the Run

Florida has struggled as of late stopping the run. The Gators linebacker core has been without Ventrell Miller for the entire season, but that has been the only major injury in the front seven. The defensive line is full of solid players that at times have each shined, yet recently this group has struggled to stop the run. South Carolina on the other hand, has struggled to run the ball, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. This is a classic case of a stoppable force meeting a movable object.

Gators Receivers

The Gators have yet to really have any singular receiver pop to fill the voids of Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts. The leading receiver is Jacob Copeland, who has 25 catches for 450 yards. The yardage by him is solid, but nothing exceptional. Justin Shorter is second with 23 catches for 279 yards. No one else has over 200 yards.

Keys to Success

Quarterback Play

Quarterback play has been a big concern as of late. Anthony Richardson struggled in his limited action against Georgia. Emory Jones had been struggling in his last couple starts, and was mediocre against Georgia. Jones may start against the Gamecocks with Anthony Richardson recovering from a concussion. Jones on the year is 129/190 for 1417 yards and 10 touchdowns with 9 interceptions, and has added 517 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground. South Carolina is not a good defense, so Jones has to have a great performance to prove he deserves to play the rest of the year. The Gators need to find consistent play out of one of them, and this may be Emory Jones’s last chance.

Turnover Margin

On the season, Florida is -7 in terms of turnover margin. This is 123rd in the country. They have forced 9 turnovers, 3 fumbles and 6 interceptions. They have turned the ball over 16 times. The Gators have only fumbled twice but have 14 interceptions. It is very difficult to win games when you are turning the ball over almost twice as much as opponents are. The interceptions have also often resulted in opponents’ touchdowns and have frequently occurred in clutch situations. The Gators desperately need to cut down on turnovers.

Pass Rush

Last week against Georgia, the Gators had just one sack and it was by a safety. The defensive front was unable to affect the game at all in any aspect. Florida should go out to an early lead, and to keep that lead an effective pass rush is a necessity. Brenton Cox Jr was extremely ineffective last week and has yet to have a big game this season. Zach Carter has been up and down, and those downs have occurred in the last few games. On the interior, Gervon Dexter has been solid but has not added a ton as a pass rusher. Daquan Newkirk and the rest of the defensive tackle group aren’t freak athletes or skilled pass rushers, so the burden falls on Dexter and the defensive ends.

Florida vs South Carolina Score Prediction

Gators 42 – Commodores 21

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