Tag Archives: NFL Betting

Best Super Bowl Bets

It is time for one final “Best Bets” installment as we have finally arrived at Super Bowl Sunday. This year has been up and down, but we will try to end on a high note. Here are three great prop bets along with picks for both the result and the total. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Saturday morning.

Photo Credit: NFL.com Illustration

Super Bowl Prop Bets

These are the fun picks. They aren’t necessarily based on football analysis so much as they are rooted in gut instinct. That being said, there are some spots where we can find some solid value.

Coin Toss: Heads (+100)

For what it’s worth, ‘tails’ is also sitting at +100 odds. Personally, I have always gone with ‘heads’. Regardless, the important thing to remember is that you are betting on something that has literally a 50% chance of happening. There is no analysis here. This is as simple as it gets. It’s an easy one to have some fun with.

Jersey Number of First Touchdown Scorer: Under 11.5 (-130)

This game is chock full of low jersey numbers. Both teams’ most prominent receivers have numbers ’11’ or lower. Both of the Chiefs running backs are as well. Also, Jalen Hurts wears number one. The only threats to the under are, Pat Mahomes, Miles Sanders, or a tight end.

My guess is that the Eagles strike first. More than likely, that will involve Hurts. I think he either runs it in or hits one of his wide receivers. The value is not great, but it’s a pretty safe pick to toss into a parlay.

Will There be an Octopus? Yes (+1400)

Don’t expect to see any cephalopods on the field, that isn’t what this is about. However, I’d be curious to see the odds on that. Anyway, an ‘octopus’ is a relatively new statistical term that refers to when a player scores both a touchdown and the ensuing two-point conversion. This has only occurred 175 times since the two-point attempt was introduced in 1994.

While it is a somewhat rare occurrence, there is a lot to like about this pick, on top of the juicy odds. First of all, both quarterbacks playing in this game, Mahomes and Hurts, have already done it this season. There are also plenty of other great candidates such as Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, and Sanders. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that both head coaches Andy Reid and Nick Sirianni have no qualms about going for two.

The scenario where I imagine this happens would be one where the Chiefs are down 11 in the fourth quarter, and working their way back into the game. Kelce catches a touchdown pass, and then gets the two as well. It is not exactly a crazy thought, certainly not at +1400.

Super Bowl Game Bets

The props are easy to pick. This game? Not so much. This matchup is truly between the two best teams in the NFL this year. This is going to be a tight matchup, but there are a few factors that do help make picking this one easier.

Spread: Eagles -1.5 (-110)

We’re taking the Eagles! They just match up with Kansas City very well. The way each teams’ strengths and weaknesses align, it just works out in favor of Philly. It will be tight, but Andy Reid would need the game plan of the century to pull off this upset.

Defensively, the Eagles have a deep stable of versatile pass rushers that will chase Mahomes around all night long. We saw this work wonders for Tampa Bay two years ago. Kansas City does have a great screen game to combat this, but those aforementioned Eagles pass rushers are mostly savvy vets who won’t get sucked up field. The Chiefs will need to get the run game going to have a chance.

Isiah Pacheco and Jerrick McKinnon are decent backs, but do we really think they can carry the load in a Super Bowl? Kansas City’s only real hope is that they do enough to open up play action and try to feed Kelce. However, the Chiefs’ lack of an elite outside receiver means Eagles corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry can devote more attention to the tight end.

Offensively, the Eagles could have a field day. Their balanced attack and ball-control offense is Kansas City’s kryptonite. It also keeps Mahomes on the sideline. The biggest concern for the Chiefs will be stopping Hurts. They have had trouble with running quarterbacks all season, allowing 4.7 yards per carry. For perspective, Hurts is a big running threat and averages 4.6 yards per carry.

You should feel pretty comfortable taking the Eagles. The Chiefs will probably keep it within a score, but expect Philly to control most of the game. Laying 1.5 is nothing to sweat over either.

Over/Under: Under 51 (-110)

Both of these teams have been hitting the under for most of the season. In Philadelphia’s last five games, the under is 4-1. Same goes for Kansas City. The Eagles are a very methodical team and the Chiefs aren’t nearly as explosive as they have been in years past. Expect the final score to be somewhere around 24-21 Eagles. Take the under.

Best Super Bowl Bets Recap:

  • Coin toss – Heads
  • First touchdown jersey number – Under 11.5
  • Octopus – Yes
  • Eagles – (-1.5)
  • Under 51

NFL Conference Championship Betting Guide

We are down to just a few more games left in the NFL season. That means only a couple more opportunities to make some money. Last week, we went 1-3 thanks to a bad beat in the Chiefs game. This week, we have multiple picks for each game since we’ve only got two to pick. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Saturday afternoon. Now, without further ado, let’s get to the ATB betting guide for the Conference Championship.

Betting Guide for the Conference Championship

Photo Credit: NFL.com

49ers at Eagles: 49ers Moneyline (+130); UNDER 45.5 (-110)

Both of these teams look really good as of late. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, this could not be a worse matchup for them. The Eagles are not going to have the same success on the ground against the 49ers as they do with everyone else. Couple that with the fact Niners rookie quarterback Brock Purdy is on fire right now, and it could be a long day for Philly.

Af far as the total goes, expect this to be a low-scoring affair. As mentioned before, the Eagles will have trouble doing what they do best. On the other side of the ball, Purdy is still a rookie facing arguably the best defense that he has seen in his young career. At most, you might see a 24-21 game. Even that would still come in under 45.5.

Bengals at Chiefs: Bengals Moneyline (+100); OVER 48 (-110)

The Bengals are by far the hottest team remaining in the postseason . They are firing on all cylinders right now. The defense has looked stout as of late. They absolutely dominated Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense last week. On the other side of the ball, Joe Burrow and company have been unstoppable. Look for the Bengals to roll past the Chiefs, who are playing with a banged up Pat Mahomes.

Despite Mahomes’ injury, any matchup between him and Burrow is bound to be electric. There will be plenty of points in this one. Expect the Bengals to get a two score lead early on, but Mahomes will make it close in the second half. I’m thinking 31-27 Cincinnati, which would be comfortably over 48.

Championship Game Betting Guide Recap:

  • 49ers ML (+130)
  • 49ers/Eagles Under 45.5 (-110)
  • Bengals ML (+100)
  • Bengals/Chiefs Over 48 (-110)

Best NFL Bets for Divisional Round

We are back with some more great NFL bets with the playoff field narrowed down to eight teams! Last week, we went three for six on the Wild Card games. Let’s see if we can get above .500 this week. Here are the best NFL bets for each game of this weekend’s Divisional round. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday afternoon.

NFL Best Bets: Divisional Round

Photo Credit: AP Photo/Chris Carlson

Jaguars at Chiefs: Chiefs -9 (-110)

The Jags have no business playing in this round of the playoffs. They lucked out by having last week’s game given away by the incompetence of Brandon Staley. Jacksonville simply doesn’t have what it takes to keep up with Kansas City.

This game reminds me of the Tim Tebow Broncos team that snuck by the Pittsburgh Steelers only to get curb-stomped by the New England Patriots. Take the Chiefs to win this one by double digits.

Giants at Eagles: Giants +7.5 (-110)

This is going to be a great game. The Giants are playing great football right now. However, they are running into a phenomenal Eagles team that has had a couple weeks to get healthy. The Eagles should certainly be favored in this one, but this spread is a little steep. At the end of the day, this is still a divisional battle. Philadelphia should win, but it will be by less than a touchdown.

Bengals at Bills: OVER 48.5 (-110)

This game is impossible to pick. This is, by far, the most even matchup this weekend. One thing is certain, we will see a ton of offense. Both of these teams have great quarterbacks, fantastic receivers, and okay defenses. That is a recipe for a high-scoring affair. The winner of this game will need to get to at least 30. Take the over.

Cowboys at 49ers: 49ers -4 (-110)

This could be a great game. Both of these teams have a ton of talent on both sides of the football. However, there are some concerning mismatches. The Cowboys have had a lot of success this year relying on a two-pronged rushing attack with Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard. That won’t work against this San Francisco defense.

Unfortunately, Dallas does not have the wide receivers to take advantage of this suspect 49ers secondary. In the end, the 49ers will get enough stops on defense, control the ball on offense, and win somewhat comfortably. Dallas is good enough to keep it interesting, but they won’t keep it within four points.

Best Bets Recap

  • Chiefs (-9)
  • Giants (+7.5)
  • Bengals/Bills o48.5
  • 49ers (-4)

NFL Best Bets: Wildcard Weekend

The NFL playoffs are finally upon us! We’re going to give a pick for each game this week. Last week, we went two for five, so hopefully things will turn around here in the postseason. Here are six great NFL bets for Wildcard weekend’s action. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday afternoon.

NFL Wildcard Weekend’s Best Bets

Photo Credit: Getty Images

Seahawks at 49ers: UNDER 42 (-110)

The playoffs are when great defenses flex their muscles. Both of these teams are great on that side of the ball. Their offenses are solid as well, but neither one is explosive enough to put up big points in the playoffs. This should be a tight, low-scoring affair. You could take Seattle +9.5 here, but you just never know if this is going to be a week where they do nothing. The under is the safer pick.

Chargers at Jaguars: Jags Moneyline (+120)

With the Jags hosting a playoff game for the first time in five years, Duval is going to be crazy. More important than home field advantage, Jacksonville has a huge edge at head coach. People forget that Doug Pederson is a great coach who has a Super Bowl win under his belt. On the other sideline, you have Brandon Staley, who soils himself in crunch time even in the regular season.

This will be a tight game, but the Chargers will give it away in the end. Take the Jags to sneak into the next round.

Dolphins at Bills: Bills -13.5 (-115)

The oddsmakers should really just take this one down. Even with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins would have probably been close to 10-point underdogs in Buffalo. With Skylar Thompson at the helm, this could be a bloodbath. Hammer the Bills here.

Giants at Vikings: OVER 48 (-110)

This might be the toughest game of the week to pick. These teams met a few weeks ago and played a tight game, which the Vikings won by a field goal. Both of these teams have seemingly been on “fraud alert” all season. It’s anyone’s guess who comes out on top in this one.

The safer play is to pick the total. In that case, I think both teams are likely to sniff around 30 points. The total should comfortably eclipse 50.

Ravens at Bengals: Bengals -8.5 (-115)

These teams just played each other last week, and now they are running it back immediately. This one is tricky. While the Bengals did win that game pretty handily, the Ravens won the second half. Regardless, that momentum is only going to do so much for a Baltimore team quarterbacked by Tyler Huntley. They might be able to keep it within 20, but that’s about it. Take the Bengals to cover.

Cowboys at Buccaneers: UNDER 45.5 (-110)

This is another game where it is just impossible to feel good about either team. Both the Bucs and the Cowboys played their starters last week in an attempt to build some momentum for the playoffs. They were humiliated by teams led by Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell, respectively. Expect this game to be an exercise in futility. Take the under.

Best NFL Bets for Wildcard Weekend Recap:

  • Seahawks/49ers Under 42
  • Jaguars ML
  • Bills (-13.5)
  • Giants/Vikings Over 48
  • Bengals (-8.5)
  • Cowboys/Bucs Under 45.5

Best NFL Bets for Week 18

It is time to for the final week of the NFL season and that means it is time for some more great bets! Last week was a little rough, but we have some much better matchups this week. Here are five great NFL bets for this weekend’s action. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday evening.

NFL Week 18 Best Bets

Photo Credit: Chris Unger/Getty Images

Chiefs at Raiders: Raiders +9 (-110)

This spread would have been a lot more reasonable a week ago. Now that we have seen the Raiders with Jarrett Stidham, it seems a little generous to spot Las Vegas nine points. The Raiders took a good 49ers team to overtime last week, and their offense moved the ball well against the vaunted San Francisco defense.

While the Chiefs do have more to play for as far as the postseason goes, the Raiders are going to show up. Josh Jacobs, Jarrett Stidham, and Foster Moreau are all up for new contracts this offseason. Also, Josh McDaniels wants to prove himself without Derek Carr. The Raiders are invested in putting on a good showing. The Chiefs just need to win, even it if it is ugly. The Raiders will keep this one within a score.

Browns at Steelers: Steelers -2.5 (-110)

The best way to stay awake during this game might be to get heavily invested in it financially. It should be pretty fruitful as well. The Browns’ offensive “outburst” last week was a fluke powered by Carson Wentz’s picks. They are not going to have the same success in Pittsburgh.

Do we really think this Browns team is going to hand Mike Tomlin his first losing season ever? Not a chance. The Steelers will win this game by a field goal like usual, so make sure that you get this at -2.5. If it goes any higher, you may want to stick with the moneyline.

Buccaneers at Falcons: UNDER 40.5 (-110)

With the Bucs locked into the fourth seed and the Falcons eliminated from the playoffs, this game is meaningless. The only reason Tampa Bay might play their starters is because of how poorly they have been playing. At some point in the game, they may start resting guys.

At best, the Bucs will try to play a safe game and get into a run-heavy rhythm to shorten the game. On the other side, Desmond Ridder is not ready to light up the scoreboard yet — especially if Tampa Bay’s starters are in on defense. Expect this game to be a race to 20. Take the under.

Giants at Eagles: UNDER 43 (-110)

This one might be ugly. The Giants have nothing to play for, as they are locked into the sixth seed. Meanwhile, the Eagles are still looking to secure the top spot. There is a very good chance that we see Philadelphia’s starters taking on New York’s backups.

In that scenario, don’t expect the Giants to get much going offensively. Their first team offense wouldn’t match up that well with the Eagles defense. A unit led by Tyrod Taylor with Saquon Barkley on the bench is going to be lucky to break 10 in this one. Expect the Eagles to get a big lead and shut it down to keep guys healthy. At most, you might see 31-10. Take the under.

Lions at Packers: OVER 49 (-110)

The last game of the regular season may likely determine who gets the final playoff spot. Shockingly that game is between the Packers and [checks notes] the Lions? Even more shocking, this will likely be a tight game. Both teams are playing great football, each having won four of their last five games.

More importantly, both offenses are on fire right now. In their last five games, the Lions are averaging over 31 points per game. In that same span, the Packers are averaging over 30. Even on a cold night at Lambeau Field, expect this one to be a barn burner. Hammer the over.

Best Bets for NFL Week 18 Recap

  • Raiders: (+9)
  • Steelers: (-2.5)
  • Buccaneers/Falcons: Under 40
  • Giants/Eagles: Under 43
  • Lions/Packers: Over 49