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Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith passes against the Denver Broncos during the first half of an NFL football game, Monday, Sept. 12, 2022, in Seattle.

Solving The Mystery of Quarterback Play in 2022

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We are about a month into the NFL season: the perfect time for storylines to develop, narratives to run rampant, and for trends to begin to take shape. We have certainly seen our fair share of each since the beginning of the season. However, none quite contend with the oddities in 2022 at the most important position in sports: the quarterback.

Quarterback play is, far and away, one of the most difficult levels of success to quantify. Some use advanced stats, carefully calculated metrics which mean nothing without context, while others use “the eye test”, rummaging their way through hours of film in hopes of validating their takes. Both are certainly valuable, but neither can explain the trends we have seen this year.

To put it bluntly, 2022 has been one of the weirdest, and statistically worst, years of quarterback play we have seen in quite some time. The mainstays of years’ past have been inconsistent and, in some cases, outright disappointing, thinning out the upper echelon of signal callers.

Unless, that is, you look at the top of any of the league’s advanced stat categories, in which you will find many new faces. However, these aren’t the anomalies of years’ past, such as Mahomes in 2018 or Herbert in 2020. No athletic freak getting his first true chance with a high powered offense. Rather, a collection of veterans and castaways whose offenses have seen astronomical jumps through the first month.

The most astounding example thus far? None other than Geno Smith.

No Russ, No Problem

When Seattle shipped off Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos for a king’s ransom, it was widely anticipated that the Seahawks would not only be inheriting a downgrade in quarterback play, but a substantial one at that. However, Geno Smith has been, by almost all accounts, phenomenal for Seattle through the first five games.

Smith is currently first in passer rating, completion rate over expected, completion rate, and a higher average intended air yards, per NextGenStats, than Patrick Mahomes (8.8 to 7.7).

Smith had largely been written off by the league after his tenure with the New York Jets. He was viewed as a career backup and, despite his nine year career, only has two more starts than Justin Herbert. However, being called to start the season for only the third time in his career, he has outplayed his predecessor in future Hall-of-Famer Russell Wilson.

A Healthy Balance

However, this isn’t the statistical anomaly we typically see from advanced stats. Smith’s success has transferred over to the tape as well. His ability to make tight-window throws along with making big plays under pressure, in particular, have been the catalysts to his success.

Geno Smith throws with timing and anticipation to the end zone.

What has distinguished him from the ‘efficiency darlings’ of the past has been the carry over of efficiency to aggressive throws. Typically, many stats favor the conservative and those quick to take the check down. Geno Smith has once again been the outlier, combining getting the ball out quickly with a knack for hitting his occasional shots downfield.

Geno Smith has been efficient on his aggressive throws.

Smith has found ways through the first month to maximize his talent in ways that Wilson had struggled with. Without their former Super Bowl champion, many expected Seattle to be in the running for the number one pick. However, they’re still in the thick of a difficult NFC West with Geno at the helm. If these quarterback trends continue throughout 2022 for Smith, it’s feasible to see Seattle sneaking into a Wild Card spot.

Rocky Mountain Disaster

It is the other side of the trade involving Seattle and Denver that, for multiple reasons, has been a struggle thus far. Wilson’s had a rough go of it to start his career in Denver. While it isn’t all on him, he certainly bears some of the blame.

Wilson has long garnered the reputation as a playmaker. He has been regarded as somebody who can not only deliver in the pocket, but also when the pocket becomes murky. This year, Wilson has tried many of the same plays, putting a supreme level of trust in his weaponry. However, he’s been slower to reads, unwilling to let a play die, and all around worse as a passer.

As someone who has disregarded throwing over the middle of the field, Wilson made his money on his “moon ball”- the deep throws down the sideline to Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf were the center of his game. However, when defenses are taking away the deep game, Wilson has been just as aggressive, albeit in risky situations.

Per NextGenStats, Wilson ranks top ten in both average intended air yards and aggressiveness percentage. However, this has resulted in a completion percentage 6.3 percentage points below expectation, among the likes of Joe Flacco and Jimmy Garoppolo.

Late Night Woes

All of this was on full display on primetime against the Indianapolis Colts. More specifically, on the throw shown below. Wilson feels pressure early, in large part due to the Broncos line, which hasn’t helped him much. However, the game situation would clearly dictate throwing the ball away.

It’s third down in the fourth quarter of a low scoring game. Living to play another down would likely mean the end of the game. Denver would be up by six, and Indianapolis had instilled no confidence in scoring a touchdown.

Despite this, Wilson decides to live and die by the big play, forcing the ball down the field and vastly overthrowing his target. Thus, Indianapolis is able to stay within a field goal and get the game to overtime.

It was in this overtime period, specifically the last play of the game, where Wilson and Hackett showed their pitfalls once again.

Denver has the ball on the five yard line on fourth and one. It’s do-or-die. If they fail to convert, Indianapolis wins the game. All Denver needs is a yard to keep the drive alive. Considering Denver’s rushing success on this drive, running the ball would likely be the solution. But Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson had other plans.

Uncharacteristic Mistakes

Hackett comes out in a light gun look, making it clear that he wants the end zone, and draws up a good play for Wilson. A simple pick to his right opens up KJ Hamler coming over the middle for what should be an easy touchdown.

However, Wilson, with all day to throw it, continues to stare down Courtland Sutton to the left. Keep in mind that Sutton is guarded by Stephon Gilmore, who already has a pick in this game.

Stephon Gilmore ends the game for Indianapolis.

Wilson continues to stare, forces the ball to his first read, and never sees Hamler. Gilmore is able to knock the ball down and win the game, on what looked like a rookie mistake from Wilson. It’s not often that we see a ten-year veteran stare down his first read this badly, much less force it into coverage.

The Broncos were widely expected to be a Super Bowl contender this year with Wilson and Hackett. However, both clearly have issues that must be ironed out, and are suffering because of them early on.

Super Bowl Hangover?

The Denver Broncos and Russell Wilson aren’t alone in their struggles, as the Super Bowl runners up have had their fair share as well. In the Cincinnati Bengals’ case, it’s also due to a combination of factors.

Last year, the Bengals’ deep attack was one of the best the league has ever seen. Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins excelled in one-on-one situations down the sideline, and Joe Burrow was hitting them at an all-time clip. It was the perfect storm of high-level deep accuracy and elite deep threats. Through this, they were able to annihilate defenses, and specifically single-high shells.

That being the primary feature of their offense was enough to get them a spot in the Super Bowl. In their championship bout, Cincinnati largely competed with the Los Angeles Rams. However, it was then that we began to see a counter form against their high-powered offense.

Simply put, teams began to move into more two-high defenses, preventing the deep passes the Bengals thrived upon. Along with this, Cincy faced more zone defenses, leading to fewer one-on-one situations for Chase and Higgins.

Not Enough Help

The typical counter to this would be to run the ball, and the numbers are simple. Coming out in two-high takes a player out of the box, and often gives a numbers advantage to the offense. The Bengals, on the other hand, haven’t been efficient enough in the run game to force teams back down. This is, in large part, due to their offensive line play.

It was well documented that Cincinnati’s fatal flaw last season was their offensive line. Joe Burrow was sacked more than any other quarterback, and the run blocking wasn’t much better.

Thus, the Bengals spent significant capital this offseason on revamping the line. Signing La’el Collins, Ted Karras, and Alex Cappa, they hoped the veteran presence up front would solidify a contender. However, it’s clear that they haven’t gelled yet as a unit, and their individual play hasn’t been up to par either.

Despite these struggles, Cincinnati has largely been in close games, which is where more struggles — specifically Zac Taylor’s and Joe Burrow’s — have begun to show. The former’s play calling has been predictable and inefficient. Resorting to trick plays in the red zone and poorly managing short yardage situations have stood out among Taylor’s woes.

Law of Averages

Some of the blame, as stated before, does fall on Burrow’s shoulders. Unlike last year, the expectation wasn’t to hit on a historic percentage of difficult passes. However, this year has certainly been a fall from grace.

Along with the successful one-on-one shots being few and far between, Burrow has tried to overcompensate elsewhere. This was on full display in Week 1, where he threw four interceptions. What stood out on these plays was how much Burrow forced the ball into tight windows. Rather than taking what was in front of him, he tried too hard to be a playmaker and wrote checks that his arm — along with a majority of NFL arms, for that matter — couldn’t cash.

Minkah Fitzpatrick takes a Joe Burrow pass back for a pick-six.

This over-aggressiveness, along with the lack of help from his offensive line and coaching staff, has led to struggles for Burrow. While potentially predictable, it’s certainly uncharacteristic for what we’ve seen to this point in his career. Burrow has looked better recently, in particular against a depleted Dolphins secondary.

He will almost definitely improve down the stretch, but his quarterback play has been an interesting trend thus far in 2022, to say the least.

Other Interesting Trends in 2022 Quarterback Play

While Smith, Wilson, and Burrow have been the most interesting three, they aren’t the only quarterbacks to play outside of their expectations so far in 2022. Matthew Stafford and the Rams have struggled on offense, largely due to their offensive line play. Going into Week 5, they ranked 19th in pass-block win rate. When coupled with Stafford’s elbow injury concerns and the loss of Odell Bekcham Jr., regression has been rough.

On the flip side of the 2022 quarterback trends, we have also seen the development of several young quarterbacks. Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts rank third and ninth in passer rating, up drastically from last season. Each with new and improved weapons and circumstances, they have taken advantage of a great opportunity. Both were in their “prove-it year”, and they have shown out to this point.

No article about the quarterback trends of 2022 would be complete without mention of Cooper Rush in Dallas. Now 5-0 in his career as a starter, Rush has kept the Cowboys afloat in relief of Dak Prescott.

However, it’s clear their offense misses their 40 million dollar quarterback and will start him when he returns. That isn’t to discount Rush, though, who has shown he belongs and made the most of his opportunity.

The Cowboys are certainly a better offense with Dak Prescott in the lineup.

The year is clearly still very early for quarterbacks. We may very well see the high risers fall back to Earth, or positive regression for the struggling veterans. However, it certainly has been a different year to say the least.

The NFL always has something new to offer, and their most important position has been no different. It will be exciting to see how these quarterback trends progress and change as the 2022 season moves on.

NFC West Preview: Off-season Recap and Predictions

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NFC West preview

The NFC West is one of the toughest divisions in football. The Super Bowl Champion LA Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, and Seattle Seahawks all made big moves this off-season. With three of the four teams believing they can win the division this year, there’s a lot to break down. Let’s see who each team lost and added, as well as predict their 2022-23 season in this NFC West preview.

NFC West Preview

4. Seattle Seahawks

Key loses – QB Russell Wilson, LB Bobby Wagner, CB DJ Reed Jr., DE Carlos Dunlap, OT Duane Brown, TE Gerald Everett, C Ethan Pocic

Key additions – LB/DE Uchenna Nwosu, QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DE Shelby Harris, CB Artie Burns, DEN 2022 first (OT Charles Cross) and second (LB Boye Mafe), DEN 2023 first and second round picks

Re-signed – QB Geno Smith (1-year), FS Quandre Diggs (3-years), DT Al Woods (2-years), TE Will Dissly (3-years), C/G Kyle Fuller (1-year)

Extensions – WR DK Metcalf (3-years, $72 million)

The Seahawks finished with a losing record of 7-10 for the first time in the Russell Wilson era. That was good for last in the NFC West. So, they decided to start their rebuild. They shipped Wilson to Denver for a plethora of picks and players, and released longtime linebacker Bobby Wagner.

While fans hate to see their leaders of the past ten years go, the franchise is excited for the rebuild. However, with quarterbacks Geno Smith and Drew Lock on the roster, they know this year will be tough.

While they did bring in Charles Cross to hopefully be their left tackle for the future, the rest of the offensive line is still a question. Gabe Jackson had a good rookie season, but during his sophomore season he took a step back.

Drew Lock and Geno Smith will have help in the skill positions. With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, both QBs have reliable and exciting targets. The backfield looks to be between Rashaad Penny and rookie Kenneth Walker III. Penny finished last season with a 92-617-6 line in the last five games. Seattle finished with the 26th most rushes per game last season, but we should expect that to increase this season.

The defense is a mess for Seattle. The linebacker corps of Jordyn Brooks, Darrell Taylor, and Cody Barton is expected to take a big step back with the loss of Bobby Wagner. The defensive line could improve the addition of Harris and Nwosu. However, I wouldn’t expect it to.

The secondary is where they will get hurt the most. They ranked second-to-last in the NFL last season in passing defense, while also being in the bottom 11 in interceptions. The trade for Jamal Adams hasn’t panned out so far, and while they do have Quandre Diggs across from him, the tandem has shown struggles in coverage.

Prediction

I have the Seahawks finishing the year tied for last in the league with a record of 3-14. With a tough NFC West, they will go 1-5 with their only win divisional coming Week 9 at the Arizona Cardinals. It’s a rebuild year for Seattle, as they look to gain a top 3 pick and hopefully get their quarterback of the future in the 2023 NFL draft.

3. Arizona Cardinals

Key loses – DE Chandler Jones, ILB Jordan Hicks, DE Jordan Phillips, WR Christian Kirk, RB Chase Edmonds

Key additions – WR Marquise Brown, OG Will Hernandez, TE Trey McBride, DE Cameron Thomas, CB Trayvon Mullen Jr.

Re-signed – TE Zach Ertz (3-years), RB James Connor (3-years)

Extensions – QB Kyler Murray (5-year, $230.5 million), LT D.J. Humphries (3-year, $66.6 million)

Last season Arizona started off hot, as they went 7-0 before losing to the Packers in week 8. The second half of the season didn’t treat them as well, as they went 4-5. They finished the season with a record of 11-6, which was good enough for the fifth seed in the NFC and second in the NFC West.

They would go on to lose their playoff game 34-11 versus the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams. Kyler Murray struggled in that game going 19/34 for 137 yards with two interceptions.

The offense for the Cardinals lost an important piece for the first few weeks as wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for the first six games. They did bring back running back James Connor and tight end Zach Ertz to help carry the load again. The addition of Marquise Brown should open the field up more for Murray as well.

The offensive line is a mixed bag. DJ Humphries and Rodney Hudson are both very solid starters. They do, however, have one of the worst guard combos in the league with Will Hernandez and Justin Pugh. With their division having guys like Aaron Donald and Nick Bosa, the offensive line could struggle keeping the pocket clean for Murray. After ranking eighth in total offense last season, the Cardinals are looking for more of the same.

The Cardinals lost some key players on the defensive side of the ball with Jones and Hicks. They didn’t do a lot to fill those holes by bringing in defensive end Cameron Thomas and cornerback Trayvon Mullen Jr. For a defense that finished 11th in total defense last season, they look to take a small step back.

Their major issue on the defensive side of the ball was against the run, and that isn’t expected to change. With aging JJ Watt being the focal point, they will be looking for the rookie Cameron Thomas and defensive tackle Zach Allen to step up.

Their secondary should still be a force with Byron Murphy Jr and Budda Baker headlining. Their linebacker corps is interesting, as they have Isaiah Simmons and Zaven Collins, who haven’t lived up to the expectations yet. The defense should be solid this season, but nothing spectacular.

Prediction

I have the Cardinals finishing 7-10 in the NFC West, going 2-4 in the division. Kliff Kingsbury could be on the hot seat after this season if the team doesn’t make the playoffs. Arizona is looking to prove the doubters wrong and make it back to the playoffs in a weak NFC.

2. San Francisco 49ers

Key loses – OG Laken Tomlinson, DL DJ Jones, CB K’Wuan Williams, OL Tom Compton, RB Raheem Mostert, DE Arden Key, C Alex Mack             

Key additions – CB Charvarius Ward, DL Hassan Ridgeway, WR Ray-Ray McCloud, DE Kerry Hyder Jr., DL Drake Jackson, RB Tyrion Davis-Price, WR Danny Gray

Re-signed – RB Jeff Wilson Jr. (1-year), OL Jake Brendel (1-year), CB Jason Verrett (1-year)

Extended – WR Deebo Samuel (3-year, $73.5 million)

After finishing last season 10-7, good for the 6th seed in the NFC, the 49ers went on a run in the playoffs, losing in the NFC Championship game to the Los Angeles Rams. It was a successful season for the 49ers, but wasn’t good enough for them. They are looking to make some noise again this season, but with a different leader on offense. The change of their quarterback could make improve their stance in the NFC West.

The 49ers announced that Trey Lance will be their starting quarterback this upcoming season. They restructured Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract, making him the highest paid backup in the league. It will be interesting to see how the offense changes with Lance at the helm. They finished with the seventh best total offense last season behind a fantastic breakout year from Deebo Samuel.

They lost two pieces of their offensive line in Tomlinson and Mack. Those will not be easy pieces to fill, either. But, with Kyle Shanahan as their coach they should be just fine in that department.

Outside of Lance taking over, the skill positions on offense stayed almost the exact same. Elijah Mitchell comes back to lead the backfield, while Brandon Aiyuk looks to break out next to Deebo Samuel this season. The offense should still be a force with the Shanahan playbook.

Deebo took over the spotlight for this team, but the defense was still the best side of the ball. Finishing third in total defense last season, they are looking to be even better this season. Nick Bosa is leading the defensive line again this year. With defensive tackles Arik Armstead and  Javon Kinlaw, who is coming back off of an ACL sprain a season ago, they should be a great front again.

While having one of the best linebackers in the league in Fred Warner, the 49ers are looking to wreak havoc against opposing offenses for another year. Ambry Thomas had a good rookie season, but the corners are still a question for the 49ers. Charvarius Ward came over from KC and, while he is a solid corner, having Emmanuel Moseley across from him is still a major concern.

Prediction

The 49ers are looking to improve upon their 10-7 record. I have them doing that by one game. I see them going 11-6, finishing with a record of 4-2 against the NFC West. They will be hoping to get past the NFC Championship game and return to the Super Bowl to avenge their 2020 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

1. Los Angeles Rams

Key losses – OLB Von Miller, CB Darious Williams, NT Sebastian Joseph-Day, OG Austin Corbett, P Johnny Hekker, WR Robert Woods, LT Andrew Whitworth

Key Additions – WR Allen Robinson, LB Bobby Wagner

Re-signed – K Matt Gay (1-year), LT Joseph Noteboom (3-years), C Brian Allen (3-years), OL Coleman Shelton (2-years)

Extended –QB Matt Stafford (4-years, $160 million), WR Cooper Kupp (3-years, $80 million)

The winners of Super Bowl 56, the Los Angeles Rams are looking to repeat after their glorious run. They went all-in getting Matthew Stafford and it paid off. After finishing the regular season 12-5, Stafford finally got his ring in his first season out of Detroit, and he got rewarded with a major extension.

They also gave an extension to Super Bowl MVP and superstar wideout Cooper Kupp. While they lost superstar Von Miller to Buffalo, this team still has plenty of talent from their 2022 championship team.

The Rams 2021-22 offense was phenomenal. While they only finished ninth in total offense, they finished third in passing offense. The passing attack is expected to be just as good, if not better, with the substitution of Allen Robinson over Robert Woods next to Kupp — who just put up the second-best statistical season by a wide receiver in NFL history.

The run game is still a question, as Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson Jr. look to each take a jump in 2022-23. The offensive line took a hit with Whitworth retiring and Corbett leaving. Though, they brought back Brian Allen, Joseph Noteboom, and Coleman Shelton to help protect Stafford. 2022-23 should be fun for Rams fans watching this offense as they look to finish in the top 10 again.

There is no question who the leader of this defense is: Aaron Donald. Arguably the best defensive player ever, he helped lead the Rams to the sixth-best rushing defense in the league. While they did finish 17th in total defense, they made a few changes.

They replaced a future Hall of Famer in Von Miller with another future Hall of Famer in Bobby Wagner. This gives a big boost to an interior linebacker corps that had Ernest Jones and Christian Rozeboom set to take the reins.

The secondary is still solid highlighted by All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey with Troy Hill opposite of him. The Rams should expect the defense to finish in the top 20 again, and maybe top 10.

Prediction

I have the Rams repeating as NFC West champs going 12-5 again, 5-1 in the division. The Rams are looking to go back-to-back and become the first team since the 2004-05 New England Patriots to do so. Will this team full of Hall of Famers be able to do it? We’ll have to wait and see.

The Seahawks’ Projected Plan at QB For 2022

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Seattle Seahawks QB Drew Lock
USA Today Sports

Throughout the first five rounds of the 2022 NFL Draft, observers watched closely to see if the Seattle Seahawks would take a potential successor to Russell Wilson at quarterback. But as every round passed, it became apparent that Seattle was not going to select a quarterback. Afterwards, Pete Carroll made it clear that he and the Seahawks were comfortable with who the team already had on the roster at QB. 

A trade for Baker Mayfield has not materialized, and Carroll indicated that Geno Smith, who backed up Wilson for the past three seasons, has the early edge in the competition for the starting job because of his familiarity with the Seahawks offense. Drew Lock, acquired in the Wilson trade, is still widely perceived to be the favorite to win the QB competition. Whomever Pete Carroll chooses in the end will have a direct effect on the betting odds.

Why Did the Seahawks Avoid the QB Position in the NFL Draft?

Whether it’s Smith or Lock emerging as the starter, most onlookers believe the Seattle quarterback situation is one of the most uncertain in the league ahead of the new season. So why did the Seahawks pass on a quarterback when some of the top-rated ones were available even into the fifth round? And what is the plan going forward? 

The consensus among draft experts is that the 2022 NFL Draft quarterback class was weaker than in many previous seasons. Most teams who passed on the top quarterbacks for the first two rounds seemed to hold the same belief. By not selecting a quarterback when many fans and analysts believed they should, Seattle sent a message that Carroll and John Schneider were willing to go with whoever they had internally. 

This is not the first time that Carroll and Schneider have chosen to take their chances with less decorated passers while building key pieces of the team around the quarterback position. After the 2010 season, they made an unpopular move to move on from Matt Hasselbeck and went with Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst for the 2011 campaign. Meanwhile, the team was in a process of constructing a strong defensive foundation while Marshawn Lynch had arrived as an offensive focal point.

In 2012, Wilson was drafted and became a final and essential piece to a championship puzzle after the Seahawks went 7-9 in 2011. 

Now, as the post-Wilson era begins in Seattle, the Seahawks have focused on strengthening the rest of the roster outside of the quarterback position. They have given any quarterback who starts, though, a supporting cast that can help pave a path to success. There is improved pass protection, a very potent running game, and two established standout wide receivers in place along with a tight end with considerable potential. 

In the 2022 NFL Draft, the Seahawks drafted offensive tackles with two of their first three picks. First-round selection Charles Cross was regarded by many draftniks as the best pure pass blocker available. Seattle also drafted RB Kenneth Walker in the second round, and he could prove to be the best pure runner in the incoming class. A healthy Rashaad Penny and Walker might be the most potent RB duo in the NFL, and that is not an overstatement.

Penny played at an All-Pro level down the stretch last year. Walker has a lot of upside as a runner with good patience, vision, elusiveness, tackle-breaking abilities, and he also can bust loose for long gainers. 

Smith or Lock will have the support of an improved offensive line, a possibly outstanding running game, plus D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Noah Fant as primary targets. The Carroll vision is to employ a balanced offense with a pounding ground attack, while also asking the quarterback to limit turnovers and connect on timely downfield strikes. 

The defense was also fortified in the draft with two edge rushers and two cornerbacks, further rounding out the Carroll/Schneider approach. Much like in the pre-Wilson season, the pieces are in place to hopefully contend soon, and the groundwork has been laid for possible future success. 

The Seahawks Chose to Strengthen the Supporting Cast for Their QBs

The Seahawks have also followed a model of teams such as the Dolphins, Jets, and Steelers. Those teams don’t have an established franchise quarterback, yet they have surrounded the position with significant playmaking options and an environment in which the QB has a lot of quality support. That sort of roster construction on offense takes pressure off the QB to carry the offense and asks him to best utilize what is provided.

It’s the exact opposite of what Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes are being asked to do. If a team does not have a star quarterback, or even an ideal starter in place, then it makes sense to get the most out of all the complementary players and lean more on the skill position guys to spike the offense. The Seahawks could still seek an upgrade at quarterback, but if not, whoever starts can benefit from a potent group of offensive players around the QB. Any passer who does not succeed in such a scenario won’t be destined to succeed at all. 

The Seahawks brass, though, has been intrigued by the potential of Lock ever since he was taken in the second round of the 2019 draft by Denver. He has the capability to throw a good deep ball and take advantage of working with significant downfield threats in Metcalf and Lockett. Plus, he has obvious familiarity with former Broncos’ teammate Fant. Penny and Walker can challenge defenses consistently and ease pressure on the quarterback. 

Everything seems to be set up for Lock — or possibly Smith — to respectably guide, but not be a pure centerpiece of the offense. Lock and Smith will be free agents in 2023, so they have one season to show they can be quality options. Lock still has some promise in terms of exceeding expectations. 

If it all does not work at QB for the Seahawks in 2022, they can look ahead to a much more appealing class of rookie passers in 2023. For now, though, Lock has a chance to start over in Seattle, and he could start back on a better career track with a strong preseason. 

The Seahawks may indeed take their chances on Lock or Smith this upcoming season. They will see if the experiment yields at least respectable results, or if the team will need to reset at the position after the 2022 campaign. 

Scott Engel is a guest contributor at ATB Network from our friends at The Game Day. Head over to their website to see more of Scott’s work, and be sure to follow The Game Day and Scott on Twitter

The Seattle Seahawks and RAS

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In regards to the Seahawks their front office has been in place since 2010. Trends come and go and front offices sometimes change. We are only going back through the 2016 draft which gives us six years worth of drafts to pull data from. You can also find Kent Lee Platte’s website here: ras.football

Quarterbacks:

The Seahawks have only drafted one quarterback since Russell Wilson, Alex McGough in 2018. So obviously not much to go off there. He did post an RAS score of 7.82.

Running backs:

To the running backs, the Seahawks have drafted 7 since 2016, which equals out to at least one a year. If you average out the scores you get a 6.81, which is only a bit above average. If Look at all the picks though outside of two guys Alex Collins and Deejay Davis they all scored a 7.28 or higher. This shows that overall Schneider and Carroll like their running backs to be relatively athletic. Looking further into the numbers the Seahawks like to draft bigger backs. five of the seven weight 217 pounds or more. They are all between 5’10-6’0. One key seems to be 40 speed. All of the running backs drafted have at least average speed or better.

Six of the seven outside of Alex Collins all scored at least average in explosion. Agility does not seem to be something that Carroll/Schneider emphasize. Three of the seven scored poorly where two only scored average. Going off this data we can say they like bigger backs with good 40 speed and at least average explosion.

Tight end:

Since 2016 the Seahawks have drafted four tight ends. Nick Vanett in 2016, Will Dissly in 2018, and Colby Parkinson and Stephen Sullivan in 2020. Their average RAS scores comes to a very average 5.77. That is mostly brought down by Dissly’s 3.79, although the rest are not all that high either. The highest is Sullivan with a 7.44. All four tight ends weight 250 or more. Interestingly enough they all vary in height. Vannett is 6’6, Dissly is 6’4, Sullivan is 6’5, and Parkinson is 6’7. Three of the four have good to great agility scores.

As for 40 times they do not seem important to the Seahawks. They vary from 4.89 to 4.66. Another interesting thing is three of the four had poor explosion testing. So that seems to be another test they do not find important. Two of them had 33″ arms and the other two had 34 and 35 respectively. So it seems Carroll and Schneider like their tight ends at least 250 and with decent agility scores.

Wide Receiver:

This position is some what interesting. The Seahawks have drafted eight receivers since 2016. The average of those eight is a decent 7.61. The one guy that really brings that grade down is Kenny Lawler, his RAS score was a 2.08. With his score removed the average goes up to 8.39. So it can be surmised that they look for pretty athletic receivers. Looking at the agility scores it seems this is another position that they do not care about agility numbers. Seven of the eight receivers drafted had average to poor agility numbers. Only John Ursua had high level agility scores. The Seahawks front office also seems to prefer receivers over 200 pounds; six of the eight drafted are 200 or over, with even four of the six being 214 or heavier. Five of the eight are over 6’0.

They do seem to prioritize 40 speed. Six of the eight ran 4.45 or faster. Seven of the eight though had a vertical of 35 or better (which is considered about average). Those seven also had broad jump scores of at least 10′ which is considered average, but six of those seven had a broad jump of 10’4″ or better which is considered above average. So it can be said they also prioritize explosion drills. Five of the eight also had above average bench scores. So it seems they like big, physical, explosive but linear fast receivers.

Offensive line:

The Seahawks have drafted eight offensive linemen since 2016. Four tackles, two guards and two centers. The average RAS score of the eight is 6.21. Two of their draft picks really bring the score down. Justin Senior and Jamarco Jones both had sub 1 RAS scores which is terrible, the rest were 7.76 or above. Also right off the bat the Seahawks seem to like bigger offensive linemen. Six of the eight are 310 or heavier, with four of the six being 320+. Their heights are kind of all over from 6’2-6’8, so it does not seem to matter to them. Of the offensive tackles all have had arm length’s of 34″ or more. The interior guys have all been around 33″

We have no testing numbers for Joey Hunt, not even arm measurements. Outside of Jones and Senior the rest all score at least average on explosion testing. As for speed testing, again outside of the two outliers they all tested at least average in speed. The agility testing is all over for them so they must be tests that the Seahawks do not worry about too much when it comes to OL. On the bench testing six of the eight all tested out at least average to very good.

Defensive line:

Since 2016 Carroll/Schneider have only drafted four interior defensive linemen. Jarran Reed in 2016, Nazair Jones and Malik McDowell in 2017, and Demarcus Christmas in 2019. The average RAS score of the four is an even 5. Looking more into those numbers you find that Malik McDowell is the one that really boosts that number up with his score of 9.03. The rest of them are 3.9 or lower. So athleticism does not seem to matter to the Seahawks.

They seem to prefer the linemen on the lighter side. The heaviest one is Reed at 307. Three of the four have a 40 time of 5.11 or faster. Another common factor across the roster is agility scores. They are all either average or below average in agility. Explosion drills are also treated the same.

Edge defenders:

The Seahawks from office has also drafted four edge defenders in the last six drafts. Rasheem Green in 2018, LJ Collier in 2019, Darrell Taylor and Alton Robinson in 2020. Taylor has no testing on file. So the three that do their RAS scores average out to a solid 7.09, mostly brought down by Collier’s 3.25. So none of them are over 6’4 which is kind of interesting. Two of them actually are under 6’3.

The Seahawks like them on the heavier side, the lightest one is 264. Two of them are over 275. All three have average to good testing numbers on the explosive drills. Green and Robinson had 40 times of 4.73 or faster. They both also had average numbers on agility testing. This might be the one position so far that they at least seem to look at agility numbers. There is not much else to go off in regards to this position, other than they seem to like guys who are relatively athletic.

Linebackers:

Linebacker is definably an interesting study in regards to the Seahawks. Schneider and Carroll have drafted five linebackers in six drafts. Jacob Martin and Shaquem Griffin in 2018, Ben Burr-Kirven and Cody Barton in 2019, and Jordyn Brooks in 2020. The average RAS score of four of the five drafted (Jordyn Brooks didn’t test enough to get a score) was a crazy athletic 8.72. So with those numbers we can assume the Seahawks like their linebackers to be elite athletes. With having athletes of this level there is of course a trade off, three of the four are 237 or smaller-with two of them being 230 or less. Also they are not exceptionally tall. Two of them are 6’2 and the other three are 6’0.

One test that definitely stands out is 40 times. They all run a 4.64 or better, with three of the four running a 4.56 or faster. The four that tested in vertical and broad jump all had at least average numbers there. This does seem to be a position that they prioritize agility testing. three of the four that tested put up elite agility testing and the other had a great 3 cone drill but a less than average short shuttle. The Seahawks definably emphasize speed and agility testing here with at least average explosive testing.

Defensive backs:

As for defensive backs they have drafted eight since 2016. Schneider and Carroll have drafted five corners, and three safeties. The Seahawks here are a bit of a mixed bag. Their average score is a slightly above average 6.91. They have two guys with sub 5 scores, but then they have three with scores over 8.3.

In regards to corners they seem to have two different types. They have three corners that were 6’0-6’3 194+ or 5’9 185-200, Tre Flowers is the talled at 6’3 the other two are 6’0-6’1. With the corners the Seahawks drafted they all ran 4.5 40’s or faster. Again they do not seem to care much about agility drills all the corners were average to poor in those drills. Four of the five put up average to above average scores in the vertical jump and broad jump. So it seems size and speed are of importance at corner with at least average testing in the vert and broad jump.

With the safeties all three are 6’0-6’1, but not exceptionally big, Delano Hill was 216 but Thompson is 204 and Marquise Blair is 196. Again explosion and agility testing was poor or average. Tedric Thompson ran a 4.6 but the other two ran sub 4.5, so it seems they emphasize speed at safety with average size for the most part. Somewhat similar thresholds to their corners.

Final Thoughts:

The Seahawks are anther interesting study in regards to what RAS and pro-day/combine testing says about their draft preferences. Roster wide it seems they do not care about agility drills outside of off ball linebacker and Tight end…kind of. They only take highly athletic linebackers. They like big fast receivers. Their defensive linemen are pretty unathletic. Their corners and safeties are held to similar thresholds. Finally they like their offensive linemen bigger guys with average speed and explosion.

Another Year to Re-define Seahawks Football

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The Seattle Seahawks have had a rough couple years trying to re-define their old stereotypes and be the team they can be. After losing to the Patriots on what could be, The worst play call of all-time, the Seahawks have yet to fully bounce back. Going on almost six years since that point in time, and nothing has changed since that point. Russell Wilson being the quarterback of the Seahawks seems to be the only thing that is working right, but it has yet to be enough. With some help over the course of free agency, trades, and the draft, they are looking to bring a title back to Seattle in what could be, the most difficult year of Russel’s career.

The Seattle Seahawks have their guy, but his time in the league is closing down each year they wait to truly make a push. With recent developments on the offensive side of the ball, and the defensive side of the ball, they are going to make the push for the Super Bowl yet again. The Seahawks had multiple seasons in the NFC east that was incredibly easy, this year won’t be anywhere close to that. After the off-season that the Rams had, the potential bounce-back of the 49ers, and the Cardinals, the Seahawks are going to have quite the road ahead of them. However, where do expectation lie within the Seahawks organization and fan-base will be something to consider as well.

After getting into the playoff’s last season, and Russell having a great season, it’s clear that they are still in win now mode. With that being said, they will be looking to take on some of the toughest teams in the NFC this year that will lead to a lot of gruesome battle’s ahead. There is a chance that with that being in perspective that the Seahawks may not even make the playoff’s this year. In a win now situation, the Seahawks are not lacking offensive weapons with Chris Carson, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett, they have one of the best offenses in football. So what could potentially hold them back? The answer is actually extremely simple, their defense.

The Seahawks office has tried to do a lot of different things to help keep teams off the score-board, but when you draft as poorly as they do, they need to do a lot more than just that. Looking at some of the players they have drafted over the past couple seasons: Jordyn Brooks in the first round, Deejay Dallas, Freddie Swain, L.J. Collier, Cody Barton, and a lot more. Now some of the names mentioned weren’t necessarily ‘bad picks’ but the value of the picks makes the picks bad. When looking to become a true contender, it starts with developing players through the draft process, not just through trades and free agency. That idea and concept has seemed to be lost on them, and it needs to be corrected.

Looking at what the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals have done throughout the course of the last couple seasons, the Seahawks team doesn’t even hold a candle to them. With a head coach that has been holding them back for years, there has yet to be any growth within their team. As a defensive minded head coach, you would expect a good defense… that’s not the case. The Seahawks have had a rough go lately, but that doesn’t come as a surprise when your team selects L.J. Collier and Jordyn Brooks with their first round picks. Making selections like the two I just mentioned is going to be a big problem going forward. You need to have players on your defense who are leaders, but who can also perform, and unfortunately they don’t. So what can they do to change that?

Well at this point in time, there isn’t much they can do, but this off-season is a different story. Looking at their previous draft selections and the development of their draft picks, it’s not unlikely there could be a coaching change. There is only one thing that seems to be a problem each and every year since 2015, Pete Carroll. For those Seahawks fans who follow football, think back to the situation with Earl Thomas. Even while being a beloved fan of the Seahawks, he ended up wanting out due to the coaching and how the team was ran. It’s easy to say that he was just being a baby, but if that was the case, why haven’t they made a run for the Super Bowl since 2015? If they want to win again, they need to let Carrol go.

Alongside letting Carrol go, they should also look to bring in help on the positions of need. With money tied up into only a couple players, they should still be looking to bring in talent to help Wagner, Adams, and Wilson. Wilson has to be prepared to run for hundreds of yards each and every game due to horrendous offensive-line play. How can a quarterback make smart choices with the ball when he has be running outside the pocket for just about every play? The answer is he can’t. When teams started blitzing, like the Cardinals, you could see the decline from that point on. The Seahawks should be taking a note or two from the Chiefs off-season this past year.

The Chiefs had Mahomes run 500 yards in the Super Bowl due to offensive-line play, so what did they do? They signed offensive-linemen to help protect their quarterback. Russell Wilson can be considered by most a top five quarterback in the NFL despite always having to run for his life. If the Seahawks front office was able to take into consideration what it would mean to the organization if they could protect Wilson, they’d be so much better off. That start to any good organization is to make sure you build a team around your quarterback to: Keep him happy, and make sure he can be the best player he can be. There are a lot of problems within the organization, but the fact that they have not gone out to get him some protection shows how little they care about him.

Next, if you go back to the beginning of the off-season you can probably recall about Russ and the organization being in disputes about his role. As the leader, and heart and soul of the team, he felt as though he should be consulted and have an opinion in decisions. With that being said, normally I’d say that isn’t his role on the team but after years of playing with the organization, he felt disrespected. Which can you blame him? His job as the quarterback is to be the leader, but how can you win with a team who doesn’t help you out? It’s the same thing Rodgers had going on this off-season as well. As the quarterback, you should have a say in who you are going to have on your team and players you think would be a fit in the organization.

There are a lot of things that will result in the outcome of the Seahawks this season, but with the roster they have right now, they are going to be in for a tough season. It’ll take a lot of great situational coaching and great play calling, but it is obtainable. Russell is a great leader, and having him under center puts the Seahawks in a great position.