It is time for one final “Best Bets” installment as we have finally arrived at Super Bowl Sunday. This year has been up and down, but we will try to end on a high note. Here are three great prop bets along with picks for both the result and the total. All lines come via Draft Kings as of Saturday morning.
Super Bowl Prop Bets
These are the fun picks. They aren’t necessarily based on football analysis so much as they are rooted in gut instinct. That being said, there are some spots where we can find some solid value.
Coin Toss: Heads (+100)
For what it’s worth, ‘tails’ is also sitting at +100 odds. Personally, I have always gone with ‘heads’. Regardless, the important thing to remember is that you are betting on something that has literally a 50% chance of happening. There is no analysis here. This is as simple as it gets. It’s an easy one to have some fun with.
Jersey Number of First Touchdown Scorer: Under 11.5 (-130)
This game is chock full of low jersey numbers. Both teams’ most prominent receivers have numbers ’11’ or lower. Both of the Chiefs running backs are as well. Also, Jalen Hurts wears number one. The only threats to the under are, Pat Mahomes, Miles Sanders, or a tight end.
My guess is that the Eagles strike first. More than likely, that will involve Hurts. I think he either runs it in or hits one of his wide receivers. The value is not great, but it’s a pretty safe pick to toss into a parlay.
Will There be an Octopus? Yes (+1400)
Don’t expect to see any cephalopods on the field, that isn’t what this is about. However, I’d be curious to see the odds on that. Anyway, an ‘octopus’ is a relatively new statistical term that refers to when a player scores both a touchdown and the ensuing two-point conversion. This has only occurred 175 times since the two-point attempt was introduced in 1994.
While it is a somewhat rare occurrence, there is a lot to like about this pick, on top of the juicy odds. First of all, both quarterbacks playing in this game, Mahomes and Hurts, have already done it this season. There are also plenty of other great candidates such as Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, and Sanders. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that both head coaches Andy Reid and Nick Sirianni have no qualms about going for two.
The scenario where I imagine this happens would be one where the Chiefs are down 11 in the fourth quarter, and working their way back into the game. Kelce catches a touchdown pass, and then gets the two as well. It is not exactly a crazy thought, certainly not at +1400.
Super Bowl Game Bets
The props are easy to pick. This game? Not so much. This matchup is truly between the two best teams in the NFL this year. This is going to be a tight matchup, but there are a few factors that do help make picking this one easier.
Spread: Eagles -1.5 (-110)
We’re taking the Eagles! They just match up with Kansas City very well. The way each teams’ strengths and weaknesses align, it just works out in favor of Philly. It will be tight, but Andy Reid would need the game plan of the century to pull off this upset.
Defensively, the Eagles have a deep stable of versatile pass rushers that will chase Mahomes around all night long. We saw this work wonders for Tampa Bay two years ago. Kansas City does have a great screen game to combat this, but those aforementioned Eagles pass rushers are mostly savvy vets who won’t get sucked up field. The Chiefs will need to get the run game going to have a chance.
Isiah Pacheco and Jerrick McKinnon are decent backs, but do we really think they can carry the load in a Super Bowl? Kansas City’s only real hope is that they do enough to open up play action and try to feed Kelce. However, the Chiefs’ lack of an elite outside receiver means Eagles corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry can devote more attention to the tight end.
Offensively, the Eagles could have a field day. Their balanced attack and ball-control offense is Kansas City’s kryptonite. It also keeps Mahomes on the sideline. The biggest concern for the Chiefs will be stopping Hurts. They have had trouble with running quarterbacks all season, allowing 4.7 yards per carry. For perspective, Hurts is a big running threat and averages 4.6 yards per carry.
You should feel pretty comfortable taking the Eagles. The Chiefs will probably keep it within a score, but expect Philly to control most of the game. Laying 1.5 is nothing to sweat over either.
Over/Under: Under 51 (-110)
Both of these teams have been hitting the under for most of the season. In Philadelphia’s last five games, the under is 4-1. Same goes for Kansas City. The Eagles are a very methodical team and the Chiefs aren’t nearly as explosive as they have been in years past. Expect the final score to be somewhere around 24-21 Eagles. Take the under.
Best Super Bowl Bets Recap:
- Coin toss – Heads
- First touchdown jersey number – Under 11.5
- Octopus – Yes
- Eagles – (-1.5)
- Under 51
