Tag: Washington Capitals

Battle of Florida Round 2: Series Preview

The panthers will face the lightning n round 2. Here’s what to expect from the latest iteration of the battle of Florida

battle of florida
Credit: Getty Images

For the first time in 26 years, the Panthers are on to the second round. After a hard fought series with the Washington Capitals, the road only gets tougher for the Cats. The good news is that they finally got over the mental hurdle of winning a playoff series. Now, they must get over another mental hurdle: the battle of Florida.

Indeed, it is that the defending champs are waiting on the other side.

The battle of Florida, Panthers vs Lightning round two, commences this week. Both teams have a tremendous amount to prove in what will almost certainly be the premier matchup of the second round. Here’s how the teams match up.

Forward Battle

If there’s anyone out there who is unfamiliar with the embarrassment of riches the Lightning possess at forward, know this: they’re really good. Steven Stamkos is in the midst of a resurgent season in which he’s tallied a career high in points. 2019 MVP Nikita Kucherov has struggled with injuries this season, but had an impressive first round of the playoffs. Scoring wingers Ondrej Palat, Anthony Cirelli, and Alex Killorn round out an experienced and talented top six.

That list even excludes Brayden Point, who may be the player the Panthers struggle to contain the most. The speedy 26 year old will likely be sidelined for the first few games with a lower body injury.

As scary as that group looks on paper, the Panthers still likely have the edge in the forward department. Many of Tampa’s forwards are on the wrong side of 30 and starting to decline. They also lost much of their bottom six depth last offseason. While they did a decent job replacing much of it, this is a watered down version of the team they lost to last year.

The biggest hurdle for the Panthers will be limiting the Tampa power play. In last year’s battle of Florida, the Lightning went 8/20 (40%) on the power play. That was the Panthers’ Achilles heel in that series. Tampa’s chemistry on the man advantage kept Florida on their toes throughout.

To mitigate their scoring chances on the power play, the focus for the Panthers should be clogging up the middle of the ice. It is vital they don’t overreact to a Stamkos or Kucherov slap shot from the outside, as that will open up passes to the slot area. As long as they stay disciplined on the penalty kill, the Panthers have the edge in the forward department.

Defense Corps

Without a doubt, the Lightning have the best defenseman in this series, and possibly the league, Victor Hedman. The 2018 Norris Trophy winner amassed 85 points (20 G 65 A) this past season, the highest of his career, while also playing shutdown defense. The Panthers will notice his presence on the ice and will need to constantly account for it.

Their number two and three defensemen, Ryan Mcdonagh and Mikhail Sergachev, do have holes. They’re incredibly talented and reliable players in their own right, but they are slow-footed. It does open some opportunities for the Panthers to get their speedy players some scoring chances against the two of them.

Their other three defensemen are solid, but nothing special. Jan Rutta, Cal Foote, and Zach Bogosian have all had their moments, but it would be unreasonable to expect for them to slow down the elite offense Florida boasts. They also do not offer enough offensively to counter their defensive limitations. It is certainly a step down from the defensive depth they saw against Washington, and it would behoove Florida to take advantage of that.

Goaltending For The Battle of Florida

The battle in net may be the most obvious advantage Tampa has in this series. Sergei Bobrovsky has been excellent for the Panthers thus far, but Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the league’s best goaltender for the past four years. He looked mortal in their first round series against Toronto, but shut the door in their closeout game seven.

On the series, Vasilevskiy said “many goals were scored because I couldn’t see anything. I’m pretty sure that was the game plan for them, to get in front.”

Screens are a goalie’s worst nightmare, regardless of their skill level. That needs to be an adjustment the Panthers make in this series. The Panthers love passing to get clean looks at the net, but Vasy is too big and too mobile for that to be a viable primary scoring option. The goals in this series need to be dirty and gritty in front of the net goals. Easier said than done of course, but the Panthers are no strangers to finding different ways to score.

Final Prediction

This will likely be the best series of the second round, and I fully expect it to go the distance. Whoever comes out of this series will likely be the favorite to make it to the cup final. The Panthers improved greatly after last year’s defeat, and are ready to win at all costs. Tampa knows how to handle any situation they find themselves in, but they will feel the absences from players who moved on in the offseason. In this year’s battle of Florida, it will be the Florida Panthers in seven games.

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What’s Wrong with the Panthers’ Special Teams?

The Panthers’ special teams have been the teams greatest weakness so far in the playoffs. What do they need to do to fix it?

Panthers' special teams have struggled to perform in this series
Photo Credit: @CapitalsPR

The Florida Panthers are in a dogfight of a first round. Currently up 3-2 in the series, the games have been far more competitive than many expected. The strange thing, however, is that the Panthers are dominating Washington at even strength. So far in the series, the Panthers are outscoring the Capitals 15-8 at even strength. The only thing keeping the series close thus far has been the struggles of the Panthers’ special teams.

Through the first five games of the series, the Panthers are 0-16 (not a typo) on the power play. Yes, the league’s number five power play on the year has yet to score a goal on SIXTEEN tries. Doing some quick math, that equates to a conversion rate of roughly 0 percent.

By contrast, the Washington Capitals have scored on six of their 20 chances for a success rate of 30 percent. That number is significantly higher than their regular season average of 18.8 percent.

Unsurprisingly, the Panthers performance on special teams has made winning these games significantly harder. The Panthers need to flip their special teams play around if they want to make a deep run in the playoffs. Let’s look at the play of the Panthers special teams and see what is causing this drop in performance, and how it can be fixed.

Power Play Woes

As a hockey fan, I think a disproportionate amount of hockey discourse centers around teams or players being cursed. It acts as a scapegoat for inexplicable playoff performances or uncanny strings of bad luck. Most of the time, it’s just popular pundits ignoring the obvious, or fans living in denial as to why their team lost.

With that being said, I don’t think I’ve seen evidence of a curse as compelling as this one.

I’m only half joking, of course, but this is getting absurd. The Panthers power play struggled early on in the year, but finished as the fifth best in the league. The team was so red hot towards the end of the year they sustained a league best power play percentage of 30.9 percent since February.

Then suddenly, it all vanished.

There are a few moving parts that could explain this. The biggest adjustment for the team has been trying to reincorporate Aaron Ekblad back on the first power play unit. The team found a groove with the five forward power play, and it looks to be a struggle trying to reinstall Ekblad as the quarterback.

Whether it has more to do with Ekblad shaking off some rust coming off the injury or the lack of chemistry with a group that has never played together before, there is simply not enough time to figure it out now. When deployed, the five forward power play has generated the most pressure for the Panthers this postseason. The plan should be to stick with that for now and figure out the Ekblad piece over the summer.

Besides that, better results will just come down to getting some more puck luck and playing with less fear. The Panthers are clearly the more talented team. Because of that, high-event hockey plays to their advantage. Even if they give up more shorthanded chances, the talent on the roster affords them that luxury. If they play more aggressively and with more movement, more goals will follow.

Penalty kill struggles

To their credit, the Panthers have done an excellent job limiting Alexander Ovechkin’s impact on the power play. They have over-committed to his one timer and forced him to pass out of his usual spots. He has only scored one power play goal all series, and it came on a broken play.

Obviously, over-committing to one player opens up plenty of other options for the opponent, and the Capitals are taking advantage of that. The main benefactor of this strategy has been T.J. Oshie. Oshie has scored four power play goals this series. The connection between Oshie and quarterback John Carlson has been superb. Oshie tipping and redirecting Carlson’s soft shots has made the Panthers penalty kill look silly all series.

As seen below, the Panthers pressure Ovechkin out of the zone, but some quick puck movement leads to a Capitals goal.

Fixing this one will be tricky. Washington is fortunate enough to have the greatest shooter of our lifetime on their team and three guys (Carlson, Backstrom, Kuznetsov) who excel at getting him the puck. Over-committing to him is the right call, but the defense relaxes too much when the puck isn’t in the vicinity of the Great 8.

Washington does have a fatal flaw, however, and that is predictability. Their M.O. has John Carlson setting the table for everything and everybody else at the top of the zone. Florida can counter this by putting pressure on the slow-footed Carlson and make him move the puck before he is ready.

Look how much space the Panthers give Carlson to take the shot in the clip below. The Capitals want to feed him at the point, and the Panthers let it happen, which leads to a goal.

It may seem counter-intuitive to play aggressively that high in the zone when shorthanded, but Carlson has destroyed the conservative approach. Carlson may still be an excellent power play QB, but he is not the player he used to be physically. The Panthers have excellent speed and need to use that to their advantage here. The key is to be proactive rather than reactive. The Capitals are too experienced for the Panthers to be playing catch up.

Overall, the Panthers have shown some good and some bad in this first round match-up. They’ve been the better team 5v5, but they’ve also made this series much harder than it needed to be. Hopefully it will serve as a learning experience for them and they can make the adjustments to win this round — and more rounds going forward. Only time will tell.

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Panthers vs Capitals: Win provides hope for post-Quenneville era

The Panthers played a hard fought game against one of the NHL’s premier teams. They showed they still have what makes them special.

SUNRISE, FL – OCTOBER 9: Florida Panthers Head coach Joel Quenneville looks on during third period action against the Tampa Bay Lightning at the FLA Live Arena on October 9, 2021 in Sunrise, Florida. (Photo by Joel Auerbach/Getty Images)

The Panthers returned to action on Thursday night following a five day hiatus from play. This extended break came on the heels of one of the most physically and mentally exhausting weeks in team history. A week which saw a head coach fired and replaced, as well as three games in four nights.

Without delving into the whirlwind of that week, suffice it to say the Panthers went into their abbreviated BYE week with a few more questions than before.

Thursday’s win against the Capitals helped answer many of those questions. The Panthers defended home ice with a 5-4 overtime victory. That final score may not jump off the page, nor should it. In this case, statistics will not tell the whole story. What fans should take away from this game is the composure this team exuded when they were met with adversity.

The OT winning goal for the Panthers

This game could have slipped away from the cats several times over. It could have slipped away when Sergei Bobrovsky left the game with an upper body injury. The game could have slipped away when Spencer Knight let in a breakaway goal one minute into the second period. It could have even slipped away when the Capitals scored three unanswered goals to tie the game. The Panthers, however, refused to let that happen.

A staple of the Quenville era of Panthers history has been their composure. During his first season as coach, the team earned the “Comeback Cats” nickname for their numerous late rallies. Over the past three years, that resilience in the face of adversity has only grown stronger. Whether it be playing from behind or holding off late rallies, this iteration of the Panthers never seem to get rattled.

Following Quenville’s dismissal from the team, it would be fair to wonder if the Panthers still had that composure in them. After all, having a veteran, Stanley Cup winning coach would give any team that confidence.

Last night showed their fans and the rest of the league these are not the same old Panthers. The Washington Captials, led by a scorching hot Alex Ovechkin, currently sit at third in the Metropolitan division and have a 0.700 points percentage. They have been dangerous all year and could have easily stolen this game from a less prepared team.

Despite playing with their backup goalie for the majority of the game, despite missing two starting defensemen, (Nutivaara and Gudas missed the game due to injury) and despite having to deal with Ovi’s blistering shooting all game, the cats pulled it out. Interim coach Andrew Brunette deserves immense credit for instilling the team with the same calmness as his predecessor.

This game was not perfect by any means, but the team showed the league they will still have a built in edge over any team they play. The Cats will need to build off this game if they want to make a deep playoff run. For now, Brunette and the rest of the staff showed they are more than capable of getting it done.

Other Quick notes from the Panthers game

  • For now, it is clear Sergei Bobrovsky is the number 1 goaltender. Spencer Knight is a serviceable backup for now but certainly needs more time to grow into the clear cut starter we know he can be. Hopefully the Bob injury is not too serious
  • The defense did not look very sharp tonight in front of Knight. This can be just that they were missing two starters, but it is worth keeping an eye on.
  • While they did blow the lead rather quickly, getting a 4-1 lead was pretty impressive and seemed almost easy. Keeping that offense going while improving the defense will be paramount going forward.
  • The Power Play is looking better and better by the game. Credit to the coaching staff for continuing to try new things
  • Congratulations to Chase Priskie for making his NHL debut tonight. Hopefully the first of many for the Broward native.

Looking Ahead

The Panthers will play the Hurricanes on Saturday night at 6 P.M. in sunrise. This will be a matchup of the two best teams in the league. Absolutely must see TV for any fan of hockey.

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