Category Archives: NFL

Best NFL Bets for Week 13

The weekend is finally here, which means it is time to place your NFL bets! Last week, we went 1-2 for the millionth time. We are now 13-21-1 on the season for the NFL portion of our Best Bets series. Basically everything we win on Saturdays betting on college football gets blown on NFL games on Sundays. After losing another 1.1 units over the weekend, we are now down 5.14 for the year.

It is time to turn things around. We are going big this week with a couple money line picks do just that! All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday afternoon. Also, be sure to catch my, and my fellow ATB bettors’, locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for Week 13!

Best NFL Bets for Week 13

Photo Credit: Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Falcons at Jets: Jets ML (+110)

For our first moneyline pick this week, we are taking the Jets. Yes, they have burned us several times this year. Nonetheless, there is reason to like New York in what is a must-win game for them.

Honestly, this pick is less about having faith in the Jets and more about being skeptical of the Falcons. Atlanta has no business being a road favorite against anyone. They are 1-3 on the road this year. Also, while last week’s win over the Saints may seem like a bright spot, it’s worth noting that the Falcons have not strung two straight wins together since the first two weeks of the season.

The Jets have the defense to hold this mediocre Falcons offense to the low teens. Tim Boyle should be able to guide New York’s offense to 17, which will get the job done. At +110 it’s solid value for a game that the Jets have to win if they want to see Aaron Rodgers return this season.

Dolphins at Commanders: Over 49.5 (-108)

This may not be a good game, or a close game, but we will see plenty of scoring. While the under has been the play for most of the season, this matchup is an outlier.

On average these two teams are scoring just over 51 points per game combined. They also allow a combined 52 points per game. We could see these averages increase, as we have a deadly combination of statistical outliers. Washington’s league-worst scoring defense will be tasked with stopping a Miami team with the league’s second-best scoring offense.

Expect the Dolphins to drop 40 in a blowout win. Meanwhile, the Commanders should have no problem getting to 20 while hopelessly trying to keep up. This is an easy over.

Chiefs at Packers: Packers ML (+200)

Let’s wrap things up by swinging for the fences on Sunday Night Football. Betting against the Chiefs may seem futile, but they are not as infallible as they have been in recent years. Also, this Packers team may be better than we thought.

Green Bay has been on a roll as of late. After an impressive Thanksgiving victory over the Lions, they have now won two straight games, and three out of their last four. A big reason for the recent success has been quarterback Jordan Love’s improved play. If he can keep the offense scoring and continue to limit his turnovers, the Packers can compete with anyone.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have not looked quite right as of late. They have gone 2-2 in the last four weeks, and they looked shaky early on last week against the Raiders. If Green Bay can get off to the same hot start they did against Detroit, they could jump out to a big early lead. At home, and with a ten-day rest, they should be able to hold on with the way they are playing. At +200, this pick feels pretty good.

Week 13 NFL Best Bets Recap

  • Jets ML (+110)
  • Dolphins at Commanders OVER 49.5 (-108)
  • Packers ML (+200)
  • Parlay odds: +1113

2023 is a Lost Season for the Patriots, What’s Next?

Photo Credit: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

The Patriots embarked on the 2023 season with realistic expectations of success. They barely missed the playoffs in 2022, largely due to a dysfunctional offense at the hands of Matt Patricia. The defense was good, as always. With changes to the offensive staff and minimal changes to personnel, it was fair to assume a moderate improvement by the offense would result in a respectable season, and possibly even a playoff berth.

What has transpired instead has rocked the New England area to its foundation. Arguably the best coach in the history of the game is on the hot seat. A once-promising young quarterback is a disaster. The calendar hasn’t yet turned to December, and the focus of the New England fanbase is completely on the draft. What was once an unthinkable exercise is now a reality.

The rest of the schedule shakes out well if you are on board the tank train. If not, things are probably going to feel worse and worse. Looking ahead, the Patriots could arguably win one or two more games this season. They are two games clear of the Bears and Giants at the fourth and fifth overall picks.

The Bears, by way of the Panthers, have the first pick. The Cardinals sit at two. Both teams could go for a new quarterback, leaving the Pats with an easy selection of Marvin Harrison Jr. at three. Harrison Jr. is the best overall prospect to come into the draft in recent memory. Selecting him would not mean immediate improvement next year, as the team would still be searching for their QB of the future.

If the Pats stay at three, it’s possible one of the teams ahead of them convinces themselves they already have their quarterback on the roster in either Justin Fields or Kyler Murray. In that case, Harrison Jr. would go before the Pats, but that scenario lets one of the top QB prospects slide to three.

It would then be up to chance who the Pats get between UNC’s Drake Maye and USC’s Caleb Williams. There has been a recent movement for LSU’s Jayden Daniels to the top of some draft boards, but for the majority of this season it’s been a two-horse race between Williams and Maye for the top pick.

The aforementioned scenarios only matter if the Patriots stay at three, which isn’t a guarantee by any stretch. The Pats have a realistic chance of losing out and jumping to the first or second overall picks. A higher pick means a guaranteed shot at one of the top QBs in the draft this year.

Or, perhaps the Pats get a bounty from a team in the top ten to move up and get to restart their rebuild with multiple firsts in hand for the next couple of years. However, who will be making these decisions is another wrinkle to this story.

Bill Belichick the GM has severely handcuffed Bill Belichick the coach. The defense is still playing incredibly well, despite injuries to many of their marquee players. The offense is incapable of any sustained success due to a lack of talent across the board. The scheme is sound enough, but the situational play calling leaves much to be desired.

If Belichick were to stay on as head coach, it would be with the hopes of a GM in place and perhaps a new offensive coordinator. Belichick’s acceptance of these conditions seems unlikely at best.

The more realistic option is a clean start. Owner Robert Kraft is not one to make rash decisions, but with the regression of the Patriots over the last few years, it has become apparent that now is the time to make some changes. If the Patriots land at the top of the draft, an outcome becoming more and more plausible, it only makes sense to allow a new regime to make their pick for coach and quarterback. A clean break.

Belichick has earned the right to a consensual breakup. However, letting him just leave is a disservice to the team-building process and the fanbase. Belichick will be a valuable commodity if he becomes available, despite his struggles this season. The Saints were able to get a first and second-round pick from the Broncos when they traded Sean Payton there this offseason.

Sean Payton has 145 fewer regular-season wins, 22 fewer post-season wins, ten fewer division titles, ten fewer championship game appearances, eight fewer Super Bowl appearances, and five fewer titles than Belichick. In short, a first and second should be the absolute floor for Belichick in a trade package. The list of interested teams should include everyone outside of Kansas City, Philadelphia, Miami, and Baltimore.

The Patriots are headed for an offseason of change for multiple coaches and marquee players. Fans are yearning for a contender in a city that expects winning. The team has the ammunition to load up in the draft and free agency. Who will be making those decisions is yet to be determined, but this offseason will determine the next five-to-ten years of football in the Northeast. Fingers crossed, it goes better than the initial post-Brady plan.

Best NFL Bets for Week 12

The weekend is finally here, which means it is time to place your NFL bets! Last week, we went our typical 1-2, taking us to a miserable. 12-20-1 on the season for the NFL portion of our Best Bets series. We also dropped another 1.08 units over the weekend, leaving us down 4.04 for the year.

There is still time to salvage the season, but we have to get started this week. We have some great picks to do just that! All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday afternoon. Also, be sure to catch my, and my fellow ATB bettors’, locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for Week 12!

Best NFL Bets for Week 12

Photo Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Steelers at Bengals: Steelers -1.5 (-110)

Let’s try betting on the Steelers again. They can’t lose to a backup quarterback two weeks in a row right? Right!? In all seriousness, this matchup doesn’t feel like last week’s.

For starters, Cincinnati doesn’t have nearly as stout of a defense as Cleveland. The Bengals will likely have to score a lot more than the 13 points that the Browns needed last week. Even getting to 20 might be difficult without Joe Burrow. While backup Jake Browning looked solid last Thursday in relief, the loss of a star quarterback just tends to deflate teams.

It is probably time for the Bengals to punt on this season. However, the Steelers are still very much in the playoff hunt. Expect Pittsburgh to take care of business this week. You should have no problem laying a point and a half.

Buccaneers at Colts: Bucs ML (+120)

This is an ugly weekend of NFL football. Nevertheless, it all pays the same, and this matchup looks like a great opportunity to cash in. We have two teams hovering around the .500 mark, yet neither one looks poised to break out as a contender.

This is one of those matchups where it’s hard to pick either team to win. However, we can say with certainty that a Colts team quarterbacked by Gardner Minshew should not be favorited against anyone. Especially not a Bucs team that plays solid defense and generates turnovers. On the other side of the ball, quarterback Baker Mayfield has been surprisingly steady for Tampa Bay.

The Bucs aren’t a playoff team by any stretch, but they are good enough to beat this Colts team. Any time you get a toss-up like this in the NFL, you always take the team getting plus odds. At +120, roll with Tampa Bay.

Bears at Vikings: Vikings -3 (-108)

We will close out this week’s picks with some Monday night action. The Vikings are looking to get back on track as their winning streak was halted last week by the Denver Broncos. This matchup against the Bears provides the perfect opportunity to do just that.

As we know, the Bears are simply not a good team. They played well above their heads last week and covered the spread, much to our dismay, against the Lions last week. Chicago should return to Earth this week. Minnesota is still a very talented team and Josh Dobbs has proven to be roughly a lateral move from Kirk Cousins.

At home in prime time, the Vikings should have no problem covering three points. The Bears are in tank mode, they will struggle to keep within a score of Minnesota. Lay the points comfortably.

Week 12 NFL Best Bets Recap

  • Steelers -1.5 (-110)
  • Bucs ML (+120)
  • Vikings -3 (-108)
  • Parlay odds: +708

Best NFL Bets for Week 11

The weekend is finally here, which means it is time to place your NFL bets! Last week, we took a big step towards digging our way out of the hole. We hit big on the Browns moneyline and went 2-1 for the weekend. That brings us to a slightly less horrible 11-18-1 on the season for the NFL portion of our Best Bets series. After picking up 2.17 units over the weekend, we are now only down 2.96 for the year.

We have some great picks this week to keep this momentum going! All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday evening. Also, be sure to catch my, and my fellow ATB bettors’, locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for Week 11!

Best NFL Bets for Week 11

Photo Credit Jorge Lemus/Getty Images

Bears at Lions: Lions -7.5 (-110)

Let’s start off with a really simple pick. You see, the Lions are a good team and the Bears are a bad team. Sometimes it isn’t that nuanced.

Detroit is 7-3 and looking like a legitimate contender in the NFC this year. Meanwhile, Chicago is floundering at 3-7. The return of Justin Fields helps, but that’s like putting a Band-Aid on a gunshot wound. It won’t be nearly enough to bridge the canyon that separates these two teams. Even in a wonky divisional game, the Bears just don’t have what it takes to keep pace.

At -7.5, this is a very generous spread. For comparison, ESPN Bet has it set at -9. Even that feels a little low. Detroit should win this one by double-digits. Lay the points.

Raiders at Dolphins: Under 46 (-108)

Betting an under in a Dolphins game may seem crazy, until you see their opponent. The Raiders have been playing low-scoring games all year. The over is 2-8 in their games this year. Also, Las Vegas has only played one game all year that has had a total over 46 points.

Meanwhile, Miami has gone over that total a lot, but they shouldn’t need to this week. The Raiders have struggled to score all season. However, they have made up for it by playing some stingy bend-but-don’t-break defense, which could limit the Dolphins scoring.

Expect this to be a short game. The Raiders have one of the league’s worst run defenses, so Miami should take full advantage of that regardless of which running backs they have available. On the other side, the Raiders have made it a point lately to get Josh Jacobs going. This run-fest should keep the scoring relatively low. Hammer the under.

Steelers at Browns: Steelers ML (+102)

Let’s make this ugly divisional game a little more interesting. The Browns seemed like they should be heavy favorites, but the loss of quarterback Deshaun Watson changes things. The Browns might still be the better team on paper, but it’s not as clear-cut.

While Cleveland has a strong roster, the quarterback position is a glaring concern. Rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has seen limited action this year, but we have seen enough to be concerned. His play is more problematic than Deshaun Watson’s Instagram DM’s.

Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback, Kenny Pickett, isn’t much better. That said, he is steady and more experienced. He should be able to do just enough to guide the Steelers to an ugly win. At +102, it is solid value for a team that should probably be favored.

Week 11 NFL Best Bets Recap

  • Lions -7.5 (-110)
  • Raiders @ Dolphins UNDER 46 (-108)
  • Steelers ML (+102)
  • Parlay odds: +642

Best NFL Bets for Week 10

The weekend is finally here, which means it is time to place your NFL bets! Just when we thought that things couldn’t get much worse, they did. Last week, we finally broke our 1-2 streak… by going 0-3. We swung for the fences on three moneyline picks and struck out. That brings us to a putrid 9-17-1 on the season for the NFL portion of our Best Bets series. After dropping three units over the weekend, we are now down 5.13 for the year.

We have some great picks this week to get back on track! All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday evening. Also, be sure to catch my, and my fellow ATB bettors’, locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for Week 10!

Best NFL Bets for Week 10

Photo Credit: Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images

49ers at Jaguars: 49ers -3 (-118)

A lot of folks feel that the Jags are being disrespected by this line. It is a reasonable take considering that Jacksonville is 6-2, playing at home against a 5-3 Niners squad in the midst of a three-game losing streak. Regardless, San Francisco should absolutely be favored, and probably by more than a field goal.

It is important to remember that the 49ers have been severely banged up for much of this skid, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They are finally starting to get a lot of those guys back, and they just added defensive end Chase Young at the trade deadline.

The defense should slowly get back to its dominant self, but more importantly, the offense got a huge boost this week, as well. The return of tackle Trent Williams is huge for getting quarterback Brock Purdy comfortable in the pocket again.

This week feels like a get-right game for San Francisco, even on the road against a surging Jaguars team. It is worth noting that Jacksonville has only beaten one team this year that currently has a winning record. The Niners could expose some of their flaws as they look to get back on track. Take the Niners to cover, comfortably.

Browns at Ravens: Browns ML (+235)

Speaking of teams who may not be as good as their record, we have the Baltimore Ravens. Let’s be clear, they are a good football team, but not “best in the AFC'” good. The Ravens are due to come back down to Earth at some point.

Nothing can humble you like playing a divisional rival, especially a tough one like the Browns. Cleveland will likely be looking to even up the season series after getting routed in the first meeting. Unlike last time, they will have Deshaun Watson back at quarterback instead of Dorian Thompson-Robinson. That could make a huge difference.

Beating a team twice in one year is hard. At best, this one is a toss-up. At +235, we’ll take that every time.

Saints at Viking: Saints -3 (-102)

Let’s keep it going with the road wins this week. This is a matchup between two of the most underwhelming teams with winning records in the entire league. Derek Carr and the Saints seem to finally be getting it together and have won two in a row. Meanwhile, the Vikings looked hopeless even before losing Kirk Cousins for the season and having Justin Jefferson on injured reserve, but somehow find themselves riding a four-game winning streak.

While that streak is impressive, it becomes less so when you look at whom they’ve beaten. Minnesota’s best win in this run came against a reeling 49ers team. This team is bound to slip up soon. With Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson both questionable this week, it could be tough sledding for a team quarterbacked by journeyman Josh Dobbs.

The Saints have a great defense and should feast on this Vikings offense. As long as the offense can get to at least 24, which they have in four of their last five games, New Orleans should have no trouble covering three points.

Week 10 NFL Best Bets Recap

  • 49ers -3 (-118)
  • Browns ML (+235)
  • Saints -3 (-102)
  • Parlay odds: +1125